4.30 Kempton
Marjong 2pts win @ 10/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)
Vincentti 1pt each-way @ 28/1 (Skybet, guaranteed, 25/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd
Nenge Mboko 1pt each-way @ 50/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, guaranteed, 33/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd
At 11/10 best price, I think Dutiful Son has to be taken on here in a better race than that which he won handily last time out. He is up 8lb, up in class, and has to prove he is as good second time out as he is fresh. He hits the ground quite hard even on this surface, and I'm not sure he is an obvious type to improve hand over fist much and all as he did win impressively last time.
Marjong is generally around 9 times his price, yet she is 6lb better off with the selection today and she shaped as if her run was needed. She was tardy from the stalls, and held right up detatched in rear, not really given a chance to win and never hit with the whip. Connections reportedly like her, and if Hayley Turner can get her into the race earlier today she might give the favourite something to think about.
Vincentti appeals at a big price and must be backed each-way. He has been dropped 2lb for his reappearance at Lingfield, where he was badly hampered on the home turn and tired late on. His stable's horses have been in reasonable form of late and this horse came to hand early last season. He is better than a mark of OR78 and some of his three year old sprinting form gives him every chance here. He can be expected to come on for Lingfield and this track might suit better too. He is well drawn and in a race with little pace in it, looks like he might have this run to suit.
I can't resist adding Nenge Mboko at a huge price. The selection improved for the application of a visor last season and went in to my notebook when he ran a huge race at Goodwood behind Magic City over seven furlongs at the Glorious meeting, making his challenge on the wrong part of the track and probably not seeing out the seven furlongs strongly. He has a wide draw to overcome today, and his regular pilot Pat Cosgrave is facing a lengthy ban, but Kim Crowley is no mean replacement and connections stick with the visor. He seems to have been written off in the market but his stable had a four year old sprinter finish second on seasonal debut in the Doncaster sprint yesterday, and they have been firing in winners just lately. 33/1+ seems rather dismissive and he is worth including at that price.
Profit & loss: day: +11.60 / month: -65.55 / year: -51.35
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