3.50 Lingfield Farraaj 5pts win @ 11/2 (Generally guaranteed)
This is a really decent renewal of the Winter Derby. Farraaj is a gelding, and connections basically embarked upon a pot hunting type of campaign with him after his operation, when they realised he is best on artificial surfaces. He goes well fresh, and was thought highly enough of to be sent to challenge Game On Dude at Del Mar last August (where he bombed out). He won this race last year and, although he wasn't visually impressive, he found plenty for pressure and did all his best work at the finish in a race run in a very fast time. He sees out this kind of trip strongly and is the type who digs in just enough to fight off his rivals, which is something I like in an all weather horse. I think his draw in stall nine is ideal because, like two years ago, there is some pace drawn wide and a few of these could cross over and try and get a prominent position from there. As a result things on the inside can get quite crowded and it can be difficult to get a run. As a guaranteed stayer I think Farraaj has plenty of options from stall 9 and I have no problem should he need to travel two or three wide. His stable are in winning form and can produce a horse after a lay off. The selection looks nailed on to run his race, and on figures, with a better draw than Grandeur, looks good value at the prices.
4.25 Lingfield Puppet Theatre 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally guaranteed)
It might be a surprise that I'd pick a second time out four year old filly for a hot looking maiden like this, but apart from the Gosden newcomer (who I do think would have every chance on pedigree) I think it is possible to pick holes in many of these. I have no idea why the Haggas / Moore favourite is so short, as an older horse who clearly displays temperament and failed to go in the stalls last time out. Botti's horse is price up based on his debut and he looks the likeliest winner to me, but his pedigree doesn't scream all weather and he didn't really pick up well on debut. I have an inkling he might be a lethargic slowboat masquerading as an improver. Hannon's doesn't look special, although he is likely to improve and was probably too big this morning.
The selection veered right at the start at Wolverhampton, but oddly enough she wasn't the only horse to move sharply right that day (the winner did the same in the final furlong). She lost any amount of ground, and even though the pace was slow she did really well to make the ground up and travelled very well into the race. She was hampered by a horse who unfortunately fell, and thereafter was allowed to come home in her own time. First time blinkers are applied today and if they sharpen her up, I don't think she'll have much to make up on these unless there's a hidden OR100+ type in the line up. She is physically scopey, well bred, and travels beautifully on the surface. I expect Joe Fanning to race her prominently and 25/1 looks far too big.
Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: -39.15 / year: -24.95
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