6.10 Kempton
Strategic Force 3pts win @ 9/1 (Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook, independents, guaranteed) - WON
Pendo 3pts win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Baars Causeway doesn't set an exacting standard here, and nor does Mimi Luke, who looks modest and quite one paced. Pastoral Witness finished second in a tinpot affair at Yarmouth, and of those three none look convincing at the prices. A case can be made for Misstemper who finished second at Southwell on debut, but that was a poor race and she has been off since. Space Walker looks interesting and would be the danger to my two but I prefer the two biggest price horses in the field.
Strategic Force just qualifies for this event, having cost €35,000 as a yearling. He is a fine big horse, and started out at a Grade 1 track in Newbury, where he travelled well for a while before completely losing interest. This is a speculative bet, because he didn't show any aptitude for racing on that occasion, and he was hopeless too on his second start. He is a fine big horse, though, and appeals as the sort who might improve as a three year old having had a gelding operation. Adam Kirby rides this evening, the yard have already had a three year old winner over course and distance this spring and he looks value at 9/1.
Pendo is also worth backing. He showed nothing last time out, but got very upset at the stalls as he has done before. He is a temperamental individual, but doesn't lack ability: he had a Wolverhampton maiden all but won last winter when he jinked and unseated his rider. A first time hood could be key to his chances today - if he learns to settle down and not expend his energy before the race begins, he will be a threat to all. Again there is an element of the speculative about his chances, but the market principals aren't horses to be afraid of, and anything that gets it together on the day can come good and win this moderate looking event.
Profit & loss: day: +24.00 / month: +70.50 / year: +19.15
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