Thursday 17th April 2014

Great racing today. Most of it is better for watching than betting on, but there is one race I'm particularly interested in.

2.55 Newmarket

Lanark 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 40/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, Independents, guaranteed)

Lyn Valley 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Johann Strauss probably has the best form in the book here but with his stable yet to find top stride, and question marks over his ability to handle the track having run a bit below form here as a two year old, he looks worth taking on. Of the principals, I'd be keen to take on Seagull Star and Hunter's Creek. I'm not sure either of the pair are up to what the market suggests and I'd be more worried about Sudden Wonder as a likely type - he is still too short at the prices, though.

I think Mark Johnston's Lanark and Lyn Valley are overpriced and we'll back both each-way and win.

Lanark kept some very good company as a two year old, but went off the boil and I would have to think he wasn't campaigned that well. Six furlongs always seemed too short for this galloper, and the step up to middle distances in his three year old season ought to suit. He is by Cape Cross out of a Linamix mare, and although his dam was a miler I can't help but feel Lanark will take after his sire. His defeat of Rosso Corsa over seven furlongs at Newbury showed him to be hearty on his day, and he looks the type who might just flourish this season. He is drawn in stall 1, which might be a negative, but I just wonder if Adam Kirby might try taking him far side. That is pretty much conjecture, but stamina wins this race (stable and owner combined with a son of Cape Cross to win it last year) and based on pedigree I think Lanark can go close.

Lyn Valley won at the July course over six furlongs, following up over seven at Goodwood in September. He was put away after two poor runs in September and October, but like Lanark remains a colt and seems to be the choice of Joe Fanning. He is another who kept good company as a two year old and on pedigree (Shamardal out of a Singspiel mare who won over this trip) he should improve for the step up to middle distances this year. He has a good draw and will probably have plenty of use made of him. The general 25/1 is too big.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +44.50 / year: -6.85