5.15 Southwell Meddling 5pts win @ 11/2 (Generally guaranteed)
Meddling looks a touch overpriced here and that is probably down to the fact that she hasn't raced on fibresand before. Her chief rival Hot Right Now looks short at 8/11 even though she is proven on the surface, and she was ultimately well beaten by Imaginary World over course and distance last time and might be approaching a point where she is exposed on the surface. Bladewood Girl has been well beaten on all four starts here, and Run Fat Lass Run looks very moderate. The selection is a Sir Michael Stoute cast off with a nice pedigree. Her penultimate run at Lingfield behind Waveguide would probably be good enough to win this, but she hasn't seen out ten furlongs strongly as of yet and I find it interesting she is dropped to a mile today.
The selection has been keen on occasion and has looked a nervy type of filly. Competing against her own sex, and the application of a first time hood, both should be in her favour today and if these factors help her relax, I think she has the scope to improve. She is a physically imposing daughter of Halling, whose progeny have a 13% strike rate at this track, out of a Pivotal mare. Her strong travelling style should be well suited to this surface, and I think she could be a bit better than an OR59 type if she does handle it. At 11/2 versus 8/11 for the favourite, I think she represents very good value.
Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -61.15 / year: -46.95
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