2.50 Southwell Encore Un Fois 5pts win @ 7/1 (Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Betfair Sportsbook, Independents, guaranteed)
A tight looking handicap. Favourite Geeaitch was 1 1/4 lengths up on Encore Un Fois at the line last time, but with the latter 3lb better off today there are reasons to think the selection can turn the tables, and is value to do so at 7/1+. The selection didn't get the best of rides last time out and got a lot of kickback in his face having been held up right in behind horses. The pace was slow that day and with the horses bunched together, it didn't really suit him. I think the likes of Solarmaite and On The Cusp will ensure a better early tempo to this race which should suit Encore Un Fois. Additionally, Ruth Carr tends to bring her horses gradually towards fitness, and her string are only nearing what you would call peak fitness and form at the minute. This will be the selections' fourth run since a layoff, and you would think he will be close to his best having seemingly taken his other races well. I'm not a fan of Afro at this track (think her course record might be deceptive - not sure she truly acts here) and although Samoset is a possible danger I'm not sure about his attitude. At the prices, the selection's solid recent form makes him the bet of the day for me.
Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +60.50 / year: +9.15
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