2.50 Southwell
Flying Author 1pt each-way @ 28/1 AND 1pt win (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 25/1 generally guaranteed)
Somerton Star 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 40/1 (Generally guaranteed)
These older horse maidens at Southwell can sometimes throw up shock results, usually because the best horse in the race doesn't act on the surface and I would suggest Ridgeway Storm is a prime candidate to resent the kickback and fail to act on fibresand this afternoon. The horse is well clear on ratings, but he didn't really pass any horses on his debut last year (rather he was happy to gallop along in the pack) and he displayed an awkward head carriage into the bargain. If he gets behind here I think he might spit the dummy, and it is interesting his current connections haven't tried him hurdling - perhaps he hasn't shown any aptitude for them - it might be that this horse is simply a slow learner. There are no pedigree hints that this horse will relish fibresand either.
Sheila's Heart made an okay fibresand debut, but that race was desperately week and and he only stayed on one pace. I don't know if that merited an RPR of 69 and he looks short at 3/1. He has to race from stall 1 today and gone are the days when I'd trust a claiming jockey to pull the horse off the rail in order to race on the better ground - at this kind of price I want everything in my favour and it's not for me at the odds.
From Frost is bred for fibresand but has no experience, wears a tongue tie on debut and has drifted badly in the market this morning. Philosofy drifted really badly in the market at Wolverhampton two weeks ago and showed little, eventually pulling up.
For these reasons I want to take a chance on supporting both outsiders to improve on what they have shown so far. Flying Author represents a stable whose horses have won Southwell maidens at big prices in the past, and there are no question marks about his ability to handle the surface. He travels well on it, and although he is up in trip today he is by a sire whose progeny tend to improve with distance and as such there might be improvement in him. Luke Morris is an interesting jockey booking and a first time tongue tie is applied after the horse weakened quickly last time out over a mile here, having travelled into the race well. If this helps with the horses' breathing, he is no 25/1 shot here.
Somerton Star also represents a stable who get winners here. He is rated just OR39 but being stoutly bred was always likely to need time and a staying trip. Joe Fanning retains the ride and you would think Fanning has told the trainer to try this surface. The selection is a half brother to Zaffeau, a good stayer around here a few years ago, and his pedigree and action suggest the surface will suit. He has a lot to find on the book, but I think he will eventually improve and he looks more likely than some of the others to improve for the switch to fibresand and on that basis I don't think he should be the rank outsider. First time blinkers are tried in place of a visor and hood.
Backing both of our selections as advised assures a small profit should one run into a place.
Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -45.15 / year: -30.95
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