One for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet to follow before 5.00pm.
3.00 Lingfield Narborough 1pt each-way AND 3pts win @ 10/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, William Hill, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)
I think Rock N Rouge is plenty short enough here over the bare minimum coming off the back of an absence, and I don't think she merits her BHA rating either. She achieved it on her second start in early September, and didn't match that level in two starts afterwards. She doesn't look scopey to me either and having showed early speed, was readily put in her place at Catterick on her final start. Bush Warrior has been supported and looks the obvious one against her, but he didn't look straightforward on his debut and also missed the break badly, which is a big factor given he steps back to five furlongs this afternoon. Patterns tend to repeat, not alternate, in racing and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he was slowly away again - he might still need a run or two before he is race savvy. Spinning Cobblers will probably be the best of these in time, but I think he lacks the speed for five. At the prices I like Narborough. He has a few issues, and has failed to win in ten starts, but he got a really dire ride over six furlongs here last time, not getting enough cover and coming wide on the home turn, eventually running out of steam having been keen early on. If he has come on at all for that run I think he might have enough to win this, and his trainer had a three year old winner at Wolverhampton the other day. The step back in trip will be no problem, and if he is given a more savvy ride and a lead into the race, he ought to be able to make a challenge late on and perhaps nick the race.
Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -12.15 / year: +2.05
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