4.00 Lingfield
Doldrums 3pts win @ 4/1 (Generally guaranteed)
The Holyman 3pts win @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 16/1 Generally guaranteed)
I think there are a few non stayers in here, with Lady Lunchalot, Menelik and Munsarim all relatively unproven over this distance. I fancy two against the field at the prices, and I'm also wondering if Jim Crowley's booking on Angus Glens has affected his and The Holyman's prices given the latter is with a trainer Crowley often rides for. Crowley probably didn't have the choice because he has never ridden The Holyman and doesn't often ride for his owners (five rides and one winner for them in the past five years, forty five rides and five winners for Fergus Sweeney).
Angus Glens might prove to be the best horse in the race by some way but he is too short on his polytrack debut. He hasn't looked a quickener on any of his turf starts and I would fear he might get left behind by horses more used to the surface and suited to the tempo of the race. At around 2/1 he makes no appeal.
I've split stakes on Doldrums and The Holyman, because while I think both offer value at the prices, there is probably a slightly greater edge in The Holyman's price so I'm keen to take advantage of that rather than weighting the stake towards the shorter priced of the pair. Doldrums actually looks rock solid here to me as a horse who can travel on the pace, who looks to be still improving and probably just went off a shade too quickly at Southwell last time out. That looked a stronger contest than this, and she pulled well clear with the winner. The return to polytrack doesn't concern me too much given she has won on the surface, and I think she just had an off day when she disappointed here on her last visit. If anything I think this sharper track will suit her better than Wolverhampton and if she is on a going day she will go close.
The Holyman is a course and distance winner who looks to be on a very fair handicap mark of OR71. Jo Crowley's horses are running better now than they have been in a while and the selection looked to have a physical problem when he disappointed here in January (seemed to lose his action and was eased). He isn't a consistent horse, but he can go well after a break and has some strong enough course form. A small field around here is ideally what he wants so everything is in his favour today. Fergus Sweeney has won on him before and 16/1+ is too big.
4.50 Southwell Frankthetank 5pts win @ 9/4 (Totesport, Betfred, guaranteed, 2/1 generally guaranteed)
Keith Dalgleish's horses go really well here and Frankthetank has already notched up three wins here this winter. I think his last run and win over this course and distance was far superior to what Day Star Lad achieved last time out and I fancy the selection to give him a beating this afternoon. My figures suggest he ran the first half of the race in a much better time than Day Star Lad did and I would think he might have that rival out of his comfort zone by the time they come around the home turn today. The selection stays strongly around here and I thought he would be favourite this morning. Although he is short enough compared to our average selection price, I think he is excellent value at the 2/1+, as I made him more like 11/8 on my own book.
Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -56.15 / year: -41.95
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