Friday 30th May 2014

Off The Pulse won well yesterday and May looks like being our best ever month.

Two for today.

3.40 Newmarket Hillbilly Boy 5pts win @ 11/4 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

Hillbilly Boy probably wasn't given a great ride last time at Ascot. He probably ended up in front too soon and on the wrong part of the track, and I think he is good value here at 11/4 off just 1lb higher than for that run. He should be fine in this rain softened ground, and I think Newmarket will suit him. Andrea Atzeni knows him well and retains the ride. He looks the most progressive horse in the field and can land this prize on his way to bigger engagements in the coming weeks.

4.25 Newcastle Dalmarella Dancer 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)

A big, strapping looking filly who should continue to progress having won impressively at Southwell on her penultimate start. Her breeding suggests she has as good a chance as anything else in here of handling the soft ground, and I think the stiff finish will suit. This looks a decent piece of placement and anything in double figures looks too big. She disappointed at Newmarket last time out but may not have handled the track in my opinion.

Profit & loss: day: +7.75 / month: +228.80 / year: +315.40

Thursday 29th May 2014

A nice 25/1 winner last night looks like the icing on the cake to a very profitable May. Thanks for the kind messages as always. It's important to remember too, most of the selections are made on the same basis, and backed up by similar assertions made from a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis. Probability dictates that we'll have sequences where lots of winners will show up in a row (which will incline people to think were "on fire") and other sequences where lots of losers will show up in a row (which will incline people to think we're suffering "bad luck lately", or even wonder "are you putting the same effort into the selections as you usually do?"). The only really important number is the percentage we take at the end of the year. Forget the silly sequences that numbers tend to throw up. You won't see me getting a God complex during a winning run or panicking during a losing run. It's literally just numbers messing about, as they're prone to do. Let them at it.

Just one selection for us today.

3.50 Haydock Off The Pulse 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, Betfair Sportsbook, guaranteed) - WON

It's hard to draw conclusions from Off The Pulse's action, pedigree and race record about his ability to act on soft ground. Without going into too much boring detail, there are some positives in his pedigree but they'd be very inconclusive and probably not worth bearing in mind. His action too is difficult to define: his sire Araafa is from the family of Pivotal, and the selection does seem to grab the ground a bit, but I wouldn't be too sure from limited evidence. Both of his starts on ground with soft in the description came after a break, and in his short career he hasn't tended to show his best when fresh. 

So it is entirely possible in my view that the horse will actually improve for a soft surface today, just as much as it will potentially hinder him. I watched the replay of his previous Haydock run on good ground and he does look a galloper rather than a quickener, and his slightly grabbing action led me to think today's soft ground could perhaps be in his favour. His return on good to soft ground at Ripon was decent: he was upped to ten furlongs but looked too fresh, ring rusty and he was keen stepped up in trip. He made a challenge a couple of furlongs out but faded fairly tamely in the latter stages, not pushed around.

John Mackie's stable have been in really good form in recent days, with a Nottingham winner backed up by two close seconds. They are 0-23 here on the flat over the past five seasons but that sample size is small enough not to bother me too much, and they have had a winner here over jumps in that timeframe (1-7 here under N.H. rules). The handicapper has been kind in my view in dropping the selection 4lbs, and the booking of Ben Curtis, who has really impressed so far this season, looks a positive call. He can do the light weight no problem and it catches the eye that it is his only mount of the day. We'll play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: +61.60 / month: +221.05 / year: +307.65

Wednesday 28th May 2014

Just one for Wednesday.

9.15 Kempton Barnmore 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, William Hill, guaranteed) - WON 

Barnmore comes from a family who have excelled on polytrack, and he caused a bit of a shock when winning at 33/1 over this course and distance in a class 6 event last August. His form is very patchy, and he doesn't wear a hood for no reason, but he did show some promise on his seasonal debut over an inadequate trip of seven furlongs here. He followed that up with a fair run over a mile, held up in a race where it paid to be handy. He was probably a bit better than the final result that day and it was a much better contest than this. The handicapper has been kind in dropping him 2lb, and although he remains 6lb higher than his winning mark, he is lightly raced for a six year old and should improve by some way yet. His yard were out of form but had their first winner since January 5th at Goodwood the other day, and I would expect the selection to turn up much fitter than he was three weeks ago on his last start. He doesn't look the worst longshot running tonight, and although pace is a potential issue again I'd suggest his price should be closer to 12/1 / 14/1 than his current quotes of 20/1+. We'll back him each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: +85.00 / month: +159.45 / year: +246.65

Tuesday 27th May 2014

It looks like being a pretty quiet week, with today's action as moderate as yesterdays and things not really picking up until the weekend. Those of you who fancy a pop at a multiple bet might consider chucking Paul Hanagan's Leicester mounts into a small stakes perm. He has six rides and although none of them stick out as value, it looks the type of card he could ride three or four winners on. He rode a winner at the track yesterday and he might just have one of those days, with timing essential on this soft ground.

We have one betting interest.

2.50 Redcar Mitchum 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Check your bets - our selection is Mitchum, there is a horse called Mitchell in the same race, don't mistake them!

Mitchum has a really inconsistent profile, but he does tend to give his running over six and seven furlongs on galloping straight tracks. He also handles cut in the ground well, and the above makes him of interest in Redcar's seller despite the fact that he has something to find with the principals on the book. He stayed on dourly to finish second over course and distance on his penultimate start, and he looks a bigger price than he should be having disappointed at Beverley (never runs well there) on his last start. A second time visor is applied today, and it interests me that he won in first time cheekpieces when they were applied last summer (first time visor had no effect at Beverley). Hard Core Debt is no 3/1 shot on recent form, and I think a leap of faith is required to support him. Bond Club is a doubtful stayer over seven furlongs, and Cape Of Hope hasn't been in much form. I'd much prefer to take an each-way price about Mitchum at his current odds.

Profit & loss: day: +3.40 / month: +74.45 / year: +161.65

Monday 26th May 2014

Just one race of interest for Monday.

2.35 Redcar 

Ubedizzy 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)

Pryers Princess 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Skybet, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, guaranteed, 14/1 Betfair Sportsbook, independents, guaranteed)

I wasn't particularly impressed with the finishing effort of Prince Bonnaire first time out, and I made a note to oppose him if a short price on his second start. Lo and behold, he is best priced 11/10 in this week looking maiden. When I say weak, those that have race haven't shown a lot, but we can only make a judgement based on pedigree analysis, sales prices and jockey bookings about those who are unraced. A couple of them take the eye and we'll support them.

Noel Wilson is having a good season with his two year olds, and it is noticeable that most of them know their job well first time out. He had a 40/1 shot race first time up the other day that is bred for a lot further (probably a 3yo handicapper over 1m4f) but was able to lead early on before fading. That's a good sign to me, and he has a couple of decent 2yo fillies in his yard too. His Captain Rio colt Ubedizzy is speedily bred, with the dam half sister to a sprint winner Captain Chaos. His sire does well with soft ground sprinters and on paper he makes plenty of appeal. The booking of Graham Gibbons looks a positive.

Pryer's Princess represents a yard not noted for two year old winners, but she wasn't cheap at £18,000 and she takes the eye with some of her relatives quit decent. The stable have booked top 3lb claimer Jason Hart, which looks interesting to me given he sometimes rides Noel Wilson's juveniles, and she has attracted support this morning. I think the soft ground might suit looking at her pedigree and although she may need further in time, there's a chance she might just be better than this lot and class could see her through.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +70.95 / year: +158.25

Saturday 24th May 2014

Three selections for Saturday.

2.50 Catterick Our Boy Jack 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Bet Victor, Coral, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)

Our Boy Jack is a consistent type, but he looks quite well handicapped at the moment which can't be said for many of these outside the market leaders. Seven furlongs around a turning track is ideal for him, but he does need a strong pace and horses coming back to him to be seen at his best. Those conditions should present themselves today, after the rain that has fallen in the last few days and considering the field size and potential pace influences within. He looks overpriced as a result. His usual claimer, with whom he has struck up a decent partnership, takes the ride and the addition of cheekpieces to focus his ideas suggests connections are keen for him to land this decent prize.

3.10 Haydock Gathering Power 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

I'd be keen to take on Joyeuse, who doesn't use her energy economically, and Spinatrix, who had a hard race last time, in this contest and I've come down on the side of Eddie Lynam's Gathering Power. She looked a horse to follow when winning more impressively than the bare margin suggests last time out, and this race has been her target since. She wants a bit of cut in the ground so conditions have come right for her, and she looks very game and genuine. I don't think those near the top of the market set a huge standard bar perhaps the talented Perfect Blessing, but at the prices I prefer Gathering Power on an each-way and win basis.

3.45 Haydock Red Stargazer 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, Betfair Sportsbook, guaranteed)

This race will actually be run over 1m50yds according to the official going and track report, due to the rail position. Red Stargazer will want every yard of that trip in my view, because he is the sort who finds loads of the bridle and just keeps galloping when others have cried enough. He represents an in form trainer who was responsible for last year's runner up, and the ground has come in his favour following recent rain. It looks a tough contest to find the winner of, but I think the selection is excellent value at the prices despite the burden of top weight.

Profit & loss: day: -7.50 / month: +76.95 / year: +164.25

Thursday 22nd May 2014

One bet for Thursday afternoon. A possible evening bet will follow - details either way before 5.30pm.

3.15 Goodwood Arty Campbell 1pt each-way AND 3pts win @ 14/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed)

Paddy Power offer 12/1 with a refund if placed second or third in this race

Arty Campbell looks a progressive young stayer, and will not have been hindered by the 15mm of rain that fell overnight at Goodwood. The selection has found his feet this year with Bernard Llewellyn, and his trainer rates him highly. The horse is a strong stayer, and would have been totally inconvenienced by the farce of a pace his Bath race was run at last time out. He was beaten by a mile and a half specialist and there weren't many negatives in the run. There is much more pace on her and that will suit Arty Campbell. He looks to be nicely ahead of his mark of OR77, and his stable are in the best form I can remember them in for quite a while. He looks too big at 12/1+ as a horse who handled Bath's similarly quirky track well, will handle the ground, and who looks progressive.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +84.45 / year: +171.75

Wednesday 21st May 2014

Two selections for today.

4.00 Lingfield Clapperboard 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Bet Victor, guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

I expect the recent rise in temperatures to give us the front running bias we have become accustomed to at Lingfield in recent years at this time of year. The heat expands the polytrack surface and with it being drier than usual, lots of kickback is produced making it difficult for hold up horses. Clapperboard is an in form filly who races prominently and has been put in here off a low weight. She gets a stone and upwards off all the fancied horses, and given that I don't particularly fancy Capaill Liath or Seek The Fair Land, she becomes interesting as a bet. Kimbali is the big danger, but he is routinely slowly away and I see no reason why that should change today. He can't be a bet at 7/2 as a result. Clapperboard stays a mile and was outpaced over seven by a Kirby / Evans horse last time out. If connections have bothered to spend any time reading this race, they'll make sure William Carson rides her aggressively to get the lead. 14/1 looks very fair.

4.30 Lingfield Hustle Bustle 6pts win @ 9/2 (Totesport, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, independents, guaranteed)

Hustle Bustle looks a progressive filly and is taken to resume winning ways here. I don't fancy Frangipanni and think she is extremely short - to be honest I wouldn't back her at 10/1. The selection has had a refreshing break, and having had a troubled wide trip last time out, pressured for the lead and caught in the straight, she has probably needed it. She is physically scopey and seems an uncomplicated ride. The booking of an up and coming 5lb claimer looks a good idea, and I expect her to try and make all from stall 4.

Profit & loss: day: -3.40 / month: +89.45 / year: +176.75

Monday 19th May 2014

Just one selection for Monday.

2.20 Redcar Alderaan 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed)

The concept of unraced horses being overpriced was something that netted us decent profits over the course of 2013, and is an angle which will be continued with where we see fit in 2014. The market currently tends to underprice experienced horses with relation to what they have achieved, and in certain types of races, given certain circumstances and market shapes, there is a value angle to be exploited. Alderaan looks attractive based on her pedigree for her debut in the 2.20 at Redcar. She is quite precociously bred, being by Zebedee out of a speedy mare, and she is with a trainer I respect who seems to be a dab hand with fillies - his handling of Lily Rules in particular has been a credit to his yard. It is interesting that the selection has been quietly backed in a fairly sustained manner this morning and afternoon, and she is strong in the offices and on the exchanges. It wouldn't have taken much money to do that, but these connections are very shrewd and aren't afraid to bet when they feel their horse is overpriced. I think there is plenty of juice is the 20/1 yet and would expect her to go off shorter. Of the raced horses, I wouldn't be afraid of anything in particular, and of those yet to race I can't see anything on their pages to frighten me, or to suggest that our selection should be a much bigger price than them. As a result I'm happy to play each-way and win to a reasonable stake.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +97.85 / year: +185.15

Sunday 18th May 2014

One bet for Sunday.

5.10 Ripon Adam's Ale 7pts win @ 9/2 (Generally guaranteed)

This doesn't look as competitive a 0-75 handicap as the market suggests in my view. Many of these don't really act at Ripon, which is something of a specialist track, with Adam's Ale a notable exception. He was only just beaten by Cheviot over course and distance last summer, and although Rylee Mooch is well handicapped with the selection based on that form, Adam's Ale is in better current form which matters a lot with sprinters in my view. He also seems more open to progression as a lightly raced five year old. He is with an in form stable, who have taken the trouble to book a good jockey in Paul Mulrennan. I'm taking a view that the race won by Angus Og at this track last time was strong, and with that in mind I think Adam's Ale's third in that contest is much the best form on offer here. I think he could be backed on course, and an S.P. of 10/3 would seem more likely than 9/2 to me, although I'll be happy enough if he drifts and wins! I'm going to have a decent wedge on him and 7pts win is the suggested stake.

Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: +102.85 / year: +190.15

Saturday 17th May 2014

Some really good racing today and we have interests in three contests.

2.40 Newbury

Indignant 3pts win @ 13/2 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 6/1 generally guaranteed)

Fort Knox 3pts win @ 8/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 15/2 generally guaranteed)

Richard Hughes was on fire at this track yesterday and I can't resist backing Indignant on his seasonal debut for the Hannon stable. She will appreciate the drying ground and ran well in better races than this on numerous occasions last year. She looks a seven furlong specialist and her second behind Dutch Rose at York and Newmarket win look standout pieces of form. Fitness has to be taken on trust but she might not be badly handicapped off OR98 and, with conditions to suit, looks a good price at 6/1+.

Fort Knox is added, with Ryan Moore a notable booking. He has his first start for Charlie Appleby today and that stable seem to be hitting form now. The son of Dubawi should enjoy this ground in my view, despite the fact that both career wins have come on soft. First time out could be the time to catch him, and he was highly tried as a three year old which suggests he was held in some regard. He races off OR104 today, but I think he could be better than a handicapper and he looks big at 7/1+.

3.25 Thirsk 

Go Go Green 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Imperial Legend 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Bet Victor, Coral, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

Go Go Green was noted staying on well at Doncaster last time out, on ground that might have been tacky enough for him. I think he has a nice draw today, with six Wives And Bronze Beau either side, which should give him a good tow into the contest. It looks set to be run at a good gallop and if they do come back late on, Go Go Green's stamina for six furlongs can stand him in good stead. I thought 25/1 was too big.

Imperial Legend should get a good tow into it on the rail, behind Tumblewind. He had a nice pipe opener on his reappearance and wasn't given a hard time of it at all in the closing stages. He was progressive last season and can continue an upward curve here. I think he has been well placed here in a winnable looking 71-85 contest.

4.00 Thirsk Mysterial 5pts win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Mysterial represents a trainer who does really well here and has won this race twice in the past five years. She runs Al Muheer (winner two years ago) today but I prefer Mysterial of her two. He is unexposed and came right back to form last time at Musselburgh, where he was given far too much to do by his apprentice rider in a race that didn't look to be run at a manic pace. He stayed on very well in the closing stages, and I think this will be run to suit him. P.J. McDonald, who rides this track well, takes the mount and the selection appears to be well handicapped. He looks the bet of the day.

Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: +109.85 / year: +197.15

Friday 16th May 2014

Two races of interest for Friday.

1.45 York

Don't Tell Annie 3pts win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Exentricity 3pts win @ 12/1 / 11/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Don't Tell Annie looked very professional on her debut and seems to boast plenty of tactical speed to boot. That will be needed here in what looks a fair renewal of this fillies contest, but she has plenty of physical scope too and should make up into an OR90+ type  at least in my opinion. She was well backed on debut by connections, who seemed to know they had a good horse on their hands, and I think she is overpriced in relation to the market leaders here. I think she'll enjoy York's test.

Exentricity represents a stable whose juveniles are in good form and she made a very promising debut at Salisbury. She didn't seem to enjoy the soft ground and looked laboured on it, but stayed on really well behind the experienced Tiggy Wiggy and I wouldn't be surprised to see her reverse form with that rival today. The prices speak for themselves, with Tiggy Wiggy trading as favourite, and Exentricity a big looking 11/1+.

3.50 York

Flying Bear 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 / 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Grecian 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Flying Bear caught the eye on totally unsuitable ground at Sandown last time out, and having travelled well he was allowed to coast home from what was also an unfavourable draw. A big field holds no fears for him: he won a cavalry charge of a nursery at Glorious Goodwood last year. He also seems to have grown plenty since his juvenile season and might be a sprinter to follow in 2014. On the evidence of recent days he might be well drawn too, and 16/1+ is too big.

Grecian is better than an OR83 handicapper in my view, it's just a matter of whether he can put it all together. He was a useful two year old, but was a late May foal and only saw the track three times last year. He has loads of natural speed, but looked immature and he strikes me as the type that could have come on a bundle for a winter on his back. Winning this first time out is a big task, but Paul Cole reports him to have been doing plenty of work and says he is fit. The booking of Oisin Murphy (claiming 3lb) is eye catching and 16/1+ looks good value. We'll back both selections each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: +122.85 / year: +210.15

Thursday 15th May 2014

Two races of interest for Thursday.

1.45 York

Bogart 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/1 (Generally guaranteed - Bet 365 and Paddy Power pay 5 places)

Normal Equilibrium 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (Generally guaranteed - Bet 365 and Paddy Power pay 5 places)

Bogart sticks out here although high enough in the handicap, as a horse who usually goes very well at this track and doesn't necessarily need to have a run behind him to show his best. The selection looks well drawn if yesterday's slight bias towards the near rail in the sprints is carried over to today. He looks the class act in the field to me and should get a tow into the race from Judge 'N' Jury.

Normal Equilibrium is added from a more central draw. Robert Cowell is the indisputable sprint king form me right now and the selection looked a different horse when winning at Lingfield last time out, that run being a lifetime best. He hit the line very strongly indeed and if he can repeat the same level of performance this afternoon, he should go very close. An in form, talented 5lb claimer is booked for the ride.

2.15 York Mango Diva 5pts win @ 6/1 (Generally guaranteed - or take 11/2 Paddy Power who will refund if 2nd or 3rd.)

There isn't much between these fillies but I'm drawn to Mango Diva from Sir Michael Stoute's stable. She is lightly raced and looks progressive, not having been raised in class too quickly, much in the style Stoute tends to bring some horses on slowly. She has been off since winning the Denny Cordell at Gowran last September, and has been trained in a similar manner to Stoute's other winner of that race Ave, who ended up a Grade 1 winner in the States having improved again as a four year old. Unlike some of these, she appears to be a ten furlong specialist and that will stand her in good stead against some horses who aren't guaranteed to flourish at this distance for all they may handle it. I thought the right price was around 9/2 and anything 11/2 or better looks very decent value.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: +134.85 / year: +222.15

Wednesday 14th May 2014

A cracking card for day one of York's Dante festival.

2.15 York

Lancelot Du Lac 2pts win @ 11/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Secret Witness 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Out Do 1pt each-way @ 20/1 / 18/1 (Generally guaranteed)

York is a specialist track in my view and the old "horses for courses" adage holds true at times. Lancelot Du Lac comes here a fit horse and has had excuses for his last couple of performances. He is high in the handicap, but is arguably better on turf than the all weather and his course form is very strong. I think he is too big a price at anything in double figures and I'll include him as one of three selections. Secret Witness ran well at Ascot last time out and is now well handicapped. He won this race two years ago and although he can't be called progressive, there is little doubt he has been laid out for the race with an identical prep to 2012 and James Doyle is reunited with him. He should be backed each-way at 16/1. David O'Meara's horses go very well at York and his Our Do has some good 2013 form in key races. He was well supported on his reappearance at Newmarket and  travelled well, but did not handle the dip. He has in-form Kieren Fallon, who is peerless around here except for perhaps Ryan Moore, in the saddle and he is too big at 20/1.

2.45 York Lady Heidi 4pts win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)

1pt each-way double with Abscent Friends, 8/1 and 8/1 generally guaranteed)

Lady Heidi looks overpriced given that she has achieved the best performances of any horse in this race on ratings. She seems bound to improve at a three year old, and she has a pedigree which suggests the step up to this trip will bring about further improvement. A small stable means she hasn't got the credit she has deserved, and although the form is open to question I really like the way she finished out her race on heavy ground at Pontefract. She'll have no problem in the prevailing conditions this afternoon and she looks too big at 8/1. We'll include her in an each-way double with Abscent Friends.

4.25 York Abscent Friends 4pts win @ 9/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed)

The "sexy" horses have been priced up short enough here, and I think there is tremendous value in the price of Bill Turner's Abscent Friends. He is a gangly looking sort who didn't handle Newmarket's dip at all on his penultimate start, and was messed about a bit in a strange Ascot race last time out. He doesn't lack for speed and I always think speed is what wins races over the Knavesmire's five furlongs. He isn't necessarily favoured by the race conditions, which mean he has to carry a penalty, but he will definitely handle the ground and the flat five furlongs on a sharp track is just what he wants. As an aside, I remember his sire Showcasing running an arguably unlucky second in the Duke Of York here, and I think his son can go one place better this afternoon.

Profit & loss: day: -16.00 / month: +145.85 / year: +233.15

Monday 12th May 2014

A nice return yesterday with Prestige Vendome finishing a gallant second in the French Guineas.

Just one race of interest today.

2.10 Doncaster

Goldmachen 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Betfred, Bet Victor, Coral, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed)

Grand Liason 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)

This looks to have been priced up fairly lazily by oddsmakers. Push Me was favourite early and looks most solid of those at the front of the market. Her recent Yarmouth second wasn't bad at all and she might drift out a bit, in which case she wouldn't be the worst bet. I'd be against Missy Wells, whose Newcastle second came in a dire looking contest. Conserve is by a sire whose progeny tend to do better on the all weather, and given that most of her good form is on that surface I'm happy to avoid. Ballyshonagh is priced up solely on her trainer's record with handicap debutants, but I don't think she'll handle the ground.

Goldmachen wins often for a horse of moderate ability and that's a trait I like in a mare especially. She is in good hands now with James Given and handles this ground on turf. Given has taken the trouble to book Paul Hanagan to ride, and he is different gravy around Town Moor. Anything 10/1+ is too big in a race where many are priced up on potential and I expect her to go close under conditions that will suit.

James Given also runs Grand Liason, who has an absence to overcome. Given's runners are underbet coming off absences, though: he can get horses fit first time up and an actual versus expected ratio of 1.13 with all his horses coming off a break of 100 days plus over the last ten years suggests this is a profitable angle. She too will handle the ground no problem, and she looks well handicapped on some of her old form. Whether she still retains the ability is the question, but her trainer sent a filly here first time out a couple of weeks back and perhaps the selection can repeat the trick. She is also worth backing at 16/1+.

Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: +161.85 / year: +249.15

Sunday 11th May 2014

Just one bet for Sunday.

2.45 Longchamp Prestige Vendome 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet Victor, 888 Sport, Coral, Betfair Sportsbook, independents) - E/W 2nd

This doesn't look a vintage renewal of the French Guineas, and a chance is taken on Prestige Vendrome stripping fitter today for his April reappearance, where he was well beaten by Charm Spirit and today's favourite Karakontie, who finished second. The selection isn't far behind Karakontie on a line through Ectot, based on a piece of late season juvenile form in the Grand Criterium. It is tenuous at best to connect the dots, but it does suggest the selection is up to this class and it is interesting his trainer, who won this race last year with this colt's half brother, is happy to take on the favourite again having seemingly been put in his place last time. Prestige Vendome looked short of work that day, though, and his trainer's comments seem to confirm this:

Nicolas Clement, trainer: "He's progressed well since his comeback and he will love the ground. It's a nice draw and I think he is a good outsider."

Stall six is a decent draw as his Clement confirms, and the horse should get a good tow into the all important first right hand turn. He is partnered by Thierry Thulliez, who rode Style Vendome last year, and the stable are in really decent form, with winners and horses running above expectation in the last two weeks. 20/1 looks to be an underestimation of his chances, and we'll take the price each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: +5.00 / month: +168.85 / year: +256.15

Saturday 10th May 2014

Two races of interest for Saturday.

3.30 Haydock Loyaute 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)

I can't see why the Nicholls and Venetia William's horses are as short as they are here and I'm inclined to take them on with a horse who looks underestimated in the market for lesser known connections. Loyaute is an in form mare whose stamina over this kind of trip and ability to act on this ground will stand her in good stead with Haydock having taken plenty of rain in the last few days. The selection actually holds Vibrato Voltat on a tenuous line through Baltimore Rock, whom she defeated giving 4lbs away in February. That form looks strong in light of Baltimore Rock's progression since, and it doesn't seem like rocket science to suggest that the mare is the bet at 14/1 here, rather than the overbet favourite, even though the formlines are fairly tenuous.

3.50 Ascot

Brownsea Brink 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Gramercy 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 5th

Ascot has also taken some rain, and judging by last night's racing the seven furlongs here could take some getting. As a result, I'm very happy to have Richard Hughes and Jamie Spencer on my side. Both jockeys are fine judges of pace. Hughes' mount Brownsea Brink took his form to another level last time out in the Spring Cup and he comes here looking like a four year old on the upgrade. He is well handicapped based on that performance and his stamina for a mile will stand him in good stead here. The handicapper has been kind in leaving his mark unchanged. Gramercy will like the ground, being by Whipper. He tends to run as many bad races as good, but he certainly saves his best for Ascot and is something of a course specialist. His course form gives him every chance of winning this, and the return of blinkers, which coincided with a return to form last year, suggests connections mean business today. He appears to have been laid out for the race and 25/1 is too big.

Profit & loss: day: -3.75 / month: +163.85 / year: +251.15

Friday 9th May 2014

Just one for Ascot this evening.

7.15 Ascot Joey's Destiny 5pts win @ 9/1 (Generally guaranteed)

This is a tough looking sprint, but at the prices Joey's Destiny looks well worth backing. The selection has returned in very good form as a four year old, and his second placed finish behind Flyman is a race that has worked out very well and looks a key piece of form. He followed that up with another second behind Huntsman's Close, a piece of form on which he holds Blessington. The selection represents a trainer whose horses go particularly well at this track, and a jockey who rides the course very well - we'll long be indebted to Pat Cosgrave for riding Society Rock into second in the Jubilee @ 50/1, and the following year winning it under a fine ride when we were on at 33/1. The draw is something of an unknown, and there is little each-way value to be had with fifteen lining up, but I'm happy to back the selection win only for a decent payday should he continue his progression in this slightly better contest.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +167.60 / year: +254.85

Thursday 8th May 2014

Two selections for early afternoon, and third may follow, but I want to check our the ground at Chester and also see what the surface is riding like at Southwell.

1.45 Chester 

Marcret 3pts win @ 5/1 (Generally guaranteed)

That's Plenty 3pts win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Marcret looks to have been specifically prepared for this race by the excellent David O'Meara, and as a course specialist who goes well on today's ground and is in good form, he looks good value at 5/1. His draw won't matter today because this will all be about how the race is run, rather than who can grab the rail, with the ground having turned soft (in fact this could take quite a lot of getting; I'm not sure if Chester watered recently and are trying to brush it under the carpet!). His defeat of Myplacelater here is really strong form in the context of this race and as a result he gets the shout.

That's Plenty is added. His second in the Irish Lincoln again looks really strong form, and that was on soft ground. One of Ireland's top apprentices has been booked for the ride and takes a very useful 3lb off, and the horse seems to be in the form of his life. He looks like an adaptable sort but I wouldn't want him to hit the front too soon. He has definitely been underestimated at 7/1.

1.55 Southwell General Tufto 3pts each-way @ 4/1 (Bet 365, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Betfair SPortsbook, guaranteed) - E/W 2nd @ 5/1

Solarmaite could run away with this based on her last run, but she isn't a frequent winner and she looked a little tired to me at the end of that race and I'm very much inclined to take her on here. Most of these struggle to win races, but it is notable that there is a bit of pace on with the favourite, Roger Thorpe, Refuse Colette and others inclined to race prominently. The favourite might have to put some work in to get the lead she wants stepped back three furlongs in trip as a result, and that might set the race up for the fast finisher General Tufto. He has been in fine form, and there was nothing wrong with his run last time out. He has drifted in the betting this morning but on measure that wouldn't worry me, and I think he makes a good each-way bet to nothing.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +172.60 / year: +259.85

Wednesday 7th May 2014

Second place with yesterday's selection was a fair result - Sir Pedro was ultimately beaten by a better horse on the day, having been well punted.

Three selections for day one of Chester's excellent May meeting.

1.45 Chester Agadoo 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 33/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

This looks a funny contest, and has the potential for a shock result in my view. Most of the horses drawn on the inside are underpriced based on what they have achieved on the track, and the really good horses are drawn too wide to back them with confidence at the prices they are available at. Agadoo is drawn very well in stall 4 and I've taken a chance on her at huge odds. It should be pointed out that she got a really good educational ride from Michael Murphy first time up, he found plenty of cover and produced her to make a challenge late on, and although she was green at one point she responded well to the whip and was really motoring at the finish. Her stable are not renowned for two year olds but it is interesting she is sent here with a really good jockey booked (13% strike rate here). I think she is very much overpriced and given normal improvement, she should be thereabouts if she gets a good position early on.

2.45 Chester Clowance Estate 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Clowance Estate is drawn poorly, but James Doyle is an excellent jockey and I am happy to support the selection with his draw factored into his price as a result. He is still lightly raced and has performed with credit in the face of a few stiff tasks for an inexperienced horse. I think there is more to come from him as a five year old, and his recent all weather form interests me because he doesn't necessarily have a polytrack pedigree. There might well be further improvement to come on fast turf and this course should suit him. 16/1 looks too big and he represents very good each-way value.

3.15 Chester Red Baron 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Coral, William Hill, guaranteed)

Red Baron is an absolute lunatic of a horse, I always remember him bolting at the start at Musselburgh last year, and a debate on whether he should have been withdrawn, before he bolted up when he finally consented to go in the stalls. He has continued to improve this season and I was deeply impressed by his Doncaster win. I am happy to forgive him his last run, because he does have his off days and can hang, but with cheekpieces on today and a fair draw I think he can serve it up to these better class sprinters. I believe the selection remains well handicapped and his stable have started the season well. Fast ground holds no fears and if he can break well and get a good position, he might be hard to catch. 14/1 is too big.

Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: +178.60 / year: +265.85

Tuesday 6th May 2014

Money Team was a well backed winner yesterday, and our strong form continues.

Today's fare looks very moderate. We'll have just one interest.

5.25 Brighton Sir Pedro 4pts win @ 10/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)

This is a tight looking handicap, and a chance is taken on Robert Cowell's Sir Pedro to rediscover his form. He has no experience of this track which has to count as a negative, but his trainer seems to do well getting the best out of horses at the likes of Goodwood and Epsom, and he is a top trainer of sprinters whose string have returned to form with a bang in recent days. The selection disappointed at Windsor last time out having gotten upset in the stalls, but the return of a hood should help him settle better before and during the race today. The last time he ran on turf with this headgear, he won a decent Doncaster sprint handicap off 4lb higher than he runs off today, and at 9/1+ despite some negatives I think he is worth taking a chance on. Vincentti had a good look around when he hit the front last time out, Ruby's Day seemed to get her Ripon race to run to suit and her jockey is inexperienced at this track, while Whitecrest will have to come on quite a bit for her reappearance run. If Sir Pedro can put it all together (which is no certainty) and handle the track, he might be well handicapped enough to demonstrate a class edge over his opposition today.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +191.60 / year: +278.85

Monday 5th May 2014

Second and fourth yesterday, and we made a nice small profit on the day.

2.40 Beverley

Lorimer's Lot 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 / 9/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Money Team 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 18/1 / 16/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

Again I'm not sure this sprint is priced up correctly and I've taken two interests in the race against the field. Lorimer's Lot looks fairly treated off only 3lb higher than her Ripon win and I expect her to go close here despite a difficult draw. She has a real fast ground action and I think there is a bit of progress in her yet from her current mark. Money Team makes his debut for David Barron and I always respect switchers to that stable. He came to hand early last season (no surprise given he was with Bill Turner) but went off the boil as the year went on. He was an interesting purchase for Barron's team and he has some good form on fast ground, which he travels well on. He has a slightly better draw and, although fitness is an issue, the stable had a winner yesterday and their string seem to be coming to hand after a slow start to the season. The price compensates for the chance we take on fitness and his handicap mark is fair.

Profit & loss: day: +33.00 / month: +195.60 / year: +282.85

Sunday 4th May 2014

Fort Bastion was an impressive winner yesterday in my view, and better than the final winning margin implies. One race of interest for today.

3.10 Newmarket 

Kimberella 1pt each-way @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Yeeoow 1pt each-way @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Alben Star 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 4th

I'm not really a Secondo fan from a handicapping point of view, and I think Zanetto and Ninjago are incorrectly positioned in the market at second and third favourite here. This race could throw up a shock, as a result, but I do think it's the type of contest that might just be won by a race fit, good horse. I've taken three against the field. Kimberella was impressive to my eye at Ripon last time out, winning well in the end and looking every inch a progressive speedster. Yeeoow probably didn't have the run of the race at Pontefract, and might be seen to better effect ridden more prominently today. Alben Star has to prove his progress is not polytrack exclusive, and his handicap mark does look high, but he is in the form of his life and I do like backing horses with that profile in this type of race. Should one of the three place, we'll get most of our stake back, and a win would be a nice bonus to top off a profitable week.

Profit & loss: day: +3.00 / month: +162.60 / year: +249.85

Saturday 3rd May 2014

One bet, one winner with Operating doing the business for us at Punchestown yesterday.

A busy Saturday, and we have four selections. The Guineas looks between the top four in the market to me, and might be a race to watch only.

2.40 Newmarket Stepper Point 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Went off far too fast last time out in a race loaded with pace, ultimately won by Alben Star. Reverts to his optimum five on fast turf here and I don't have him far off the best of these on ratings. 16/1 is too big.

3.00 Thirsk Trade Secret 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)

Bolted up over six furlongs here on his penultimate start, finishing really strongly. Has never won over seven furlongs, but he is a course specialist who still looks quite well handicapped and might be worth another try at the distance. 12/1+ is too big.

3.30 Goodwood Jiroft 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Has form on downhill courses and handles ground with some cut in it. Beginning to look well treated, and Robert Cowell's string seem to be hitting form. Too big at anything in double figures.

3.40 Thirsk Fort Bastion 4pts win @ 10/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed) - WON

Ruth Carr's string are in good form now and Fort Bastion is taken to give her a big race success. The selection shaped with plenty of promise last time out, and will enjoy this big field over a strongly run mile. His draw isn't too bad and I thought he'd be a shorter price. We'll play win only, with the shape of the race not offering much in the way of place value.

Profit & loss: day: +28.00 / month: +159.60 / year: +246.85

Friday 2nd May 2014

Just one for today.

4.20 Punchestown Operating 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

This doesn't look a strong handicap, and my feeling would be that there aren't any bona fide progressive handicappers at the front of the market, nor anything particularly interesting amongst the big outsiders. As a result, I'm interested in taking the 14/1 about Operating. He won nicely last time out, and he represents a yard who could win with the stable cat this week, such is the excellent form they are in. A right handed track on yielding ground is fine for him, and I think he is quite well handicapped off OR128. I'm not sure some of these will run their races, and as a result I think the selection makes a decent each-way and win bet with 7/2 paid on the place.

Profit & loss: day: +57.60 / month: +131.60 / year: +218.85

Thursday 1st May 2014

Not a good day yesterday, with our bet not running to form at all. 

Onwards and upwards, two selections for today:

1pt each-way double on today's selections, 20/1 / 22/1 generally guaranteed.

5.30 Punchestown Reve De Sivola 1pt each-way @ 22/1 / 20/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 2pts win @ Betfair SP

An interesting renewal in that Quevega was probably less impressive at cheltenham this year than any other, which might be down to race fitness (usually comes on for that run) or perhaps age and a decline in ability. If it is indeed the latter, she probably has to be taken on at close to even money. Saying that, her closest market rivals don't entice. At Fisher's Cross has looked ropey going right handed, and Fingal Bay isn't really proven at this level. The one who looks overpriced is Reve De Sivola, who was a well beaten second last year when five lengths behind Quevega. It was a hell of a test in the ground last year and I just wonder if Daryle Jacob gave the selection the best chance of winning, or did he set the race up for the mare? Barry Geraghty takes over in the saddle this year which is a huge positive, and the watering Punchestown have done as well as 2mm of rain overnight and a splash this morning should mean the selection won't have excuses on that score. He looks more certain to run his race than most of these and looks too big at 20/1 on an each-way basis. We'll also include him in an each-way double.

6.40 Punchestown God's Own 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 25/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Ladbrokes, Betfair Sportsbook, Racebets, guaranteed) - WON

I was dead against the Irish form for the Arkle at Cheltenham, as I think they're an average bunch of two milers with the exception of Champagne Fever, who seems to me to have been difficult to get right this year. Balder Succes trades 5/2 here, but God's Own wasn't far behind him in February and there are reasons to believe he might reverse that form. He has skipped Cheltenham and Aintree, and this would appear to have been the plan all along. The selection appears to be much more comfortable running clockwise, but the form of his Doncaster run on chase debut behind Next Sensation and in front of Turn Over Sivola looks strong in retrospect. At a big price, he looks well worth chancing here, especially with Barry Geraghty booked to ride. I don't know what Paddy Brennan was at on him last time but I didn't like the ride anyway. The selection takes a good tug of the bridle, and I have no worries about this two mile trip. 20/1+ is too big.

Profit & loss: day: +74.00 / month: +74.00 / year: +161.25

Wednesday 30th April 2014

One bet for this afternoon. Evening bets may follow, details either way before 5.00pm.

4.45 Ascot Sword Of The Lord 4pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 6/1 (Generally guaranteed - Maximum Bet)

I'd say this is my bet of the flat season so far, as the staking suggests. It's a simple case of price: Sword Of The Lord opened 7/2 with Ladbrokes early this morning, and I think that is the horse's correct price in this race. Sustained support for Russian Realm has seen the selection drift to a huge 6/1, which is widely available, and I think the horse merits a maximum stakes interest, each-way and win with a place covering the outlay.

The selection didn't do much as a juvenile, nor would I have expected him to, because he is a big horse who would have needed time to fill out his frame. It is interesting he began his three year old campaign as 3/1jf in a Lingfield handicap, connections clearly feeling he had filled his frame. It took him a bit longer to properly get the hang of things, and he broke his maiden at Brighton in October, on his seventh start. He followed that up with another win over the same course and distance, before he was put away for the winter.

His first start this year was very promising. He was settled in rear, and was held onto for an awful long time by Willie Twiston Davies, travelling like much the best horse, but the first and third raced on a different part of the track and were sent on a lot sooner. Our lad got to them on the bridle, but that probably took too much out of him on his first start back and he eventually battled on for second. I thought it was a massive, massive run, and the winner Memory Cloth, who had the benefit of fitness, has since won a competitive Haydock handicap to complete a hat trick. He was dangerously handicapped off OR70 at Leicester, and Megan Carberry was taking 7lb off to boot. 

The selection looks a typical Ascot horse to me - the track suits strong travelling hold up horses as a rule. He represents a stable who do well at the track, and he has Tom Queally taking over in the saddle this afternoon. Added to that, he is proven on soft ground where the favourite is probably not guaranteed to enjoy it as a son of Dansili with a good ground action. Hopefully all 12 go to post and we'll get 1/4 odds on the place part of the bet. I really can't see any negatives, and as such the selection will be a maximum bet.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +147.50 / year: +87.25

Monday 28th April 2014

One bet for this afternoon. We may or may not have an evening selection, details either way before 5.00pm.

3.00 Bath Vincentti 5pts win @ 6/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 11/2 Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, independents, guaranteed)

Despite being by Invincible Spirit, whose progeny go well on artificial surfaces, Vincentti has never really looked at home on polytrack to my eyes. He doesn't have the athletic action of a polytrack quickener, and as a result I think he has done quite well to finish second and third on his two recent starts on the surface, given the fair level of competition he faced. I've been waiting for him to revert to turf, and today he gets the opportunity. In addition, the ground at Bath is good to soft, which he is proven on, and I think the trip and stiff finish will play to his strengths. There is a question mark about his ability to act at Bath's unique track, but his trainer Ron Harris does get winners here and at Brighton, suggesting his horses might have experience of undulating ground from their gallops. With a fitness advantage over his rivals today, as well as a fair looking handicap mark, he is worth taking a chance on with Adam Kirby a notable booking. 5/1+ is too big.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +157.50 / year: +97.25

Saturday 26th April 2014

The type of Saturday that looks great on paper, but one you could absolutely do your nuts on if you aren't careful. Two races of interest for us at Ripon.

2.50 Ripon

El Viento 1pt each-way @ 9/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Cosmic Chatter 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Betfred, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Richard Fahey's string are in very good form as usual for this time of the season, and his El Viento is taken to register a third course and distance win. The selection ran well over a trip too sharp for him on his reappearance, and wasn't given anything like a hard time in the closing stages by the young claimer who rode him. Tony Hamilton takes the ride today and it would appear this race has been the plan. He is quite well drawn, and should get a good pace to run at on the near side, I think Betfair SP may exceed the current 9/1 and he looks too big.

Cosmic Chatter is added in the hope that the step up to six furlongs is the making of him. His stable haven't been in form, but the selection has a very good record fresh and has probably been prepared with this race in mind unlike many of his rivals. He looks well handicapped on his best form and although he is lightly raced for a four year old sprinter, he does look talented and it is interesting Graham Gibbons chooses him over Colonel Mak.

4.05 Ripon Awake My Soul 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed)

David O'Meara's stable are on fire, and his second string Awake My Soul is taken to register a second Ripon win stretching out to 1m4f. He isn't guaranteed to stay the trip, but his pedigree would give me hope and I would expect he might get an easy time of it on or close to the lead from a good draw here in stall three. O'Meara has booked a top 3lb claimer for the ride, although Sam James might have preferred Chancery (I'm not sure that horse really likes Ripon). The biggest concern is the selection's poor run on his reappearance, but that was almost a month ago and it was his first start on the all weather. He can carry his head high too, but if he gets in a good rhythm in front, he might just be too fit and forward for the others to catch off a light weight in the closing stages, if the stable's recent runners are anything to go by.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: +162.50 / year: +102.25