Just one race of interest today.
2.10 Doncaster
Goldmachen 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Betfred, Bet Victor, Coral, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed)
Grand Liason 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)
This looks to have been priced up fairly lazily by oddsmakers. Push Me was favourite early and looks most solid of those at the front of the market. Her recent Yarmouth second wasn't bad at all and she might drift out a bit, in which case she wouldn't be the worst bet. I'd be against Missy Wells, whose Newcastle second came in a dire looking contest. Conserve is by a sire whose progeny tend to do better on the all weather, and given that most of her good form is on that surface I'm happy to avoid. Ballyshonagh is priced up solely on her trainer's record with handicap debutants, but I don't think she'll handle the ground.
Goldmachen wins often for a horse of moderate ability and that's a trait I like in a mare especially. She is in good hands now with James Given and handles this ground on turf. Given has taken the trouble to book Paul Hanagan to ride, and he is different gravy around Town Moor. Anything 10/1+ is too big in a race where many are priced up on potential and I expect her to go close under conditions that will suit.
James Given also runs Grand Liason, who has an absence to overcome. Given's runners are underbet coming off absences, though: he can get horses fit first time up and an actual versus expected ratio of 1.13 with all his horses coming off a break of 100 days plus over the last ten years suggests this is a profitable angle. She too will handle the ground no problem, and she looks well handicapped on some of her old form. Whether she still retains the ability is the question, but her trainer sent a filly here first time out a couple of weeks back and perhaps the selection can repeat the trick. She is also worth backing at 16/1+.
Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: +161.85 / year: +249.15
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