2.20 Redcar Alderaan 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed)
The concept of unraced horses being overpriced was something that netted us decent profits over the course of 2013, and is an angle which will be continued with where we see fit in 2014. The market currently tends to underprice experienced horses with relation to what they have achieved, and in certain types of races, given certain circumstances and market shapes, there is a value angle to be exploited. Alderaan looks attractive based on her pedigree for her debut in the 2.20 at Redcar. She is quite precociously bred, being by Zebedee out of a speedy mare, and she is with a trainer I respect who seems to be a dab hand with fillies - his handling of Lily Rules in particular has been a credit to his yard. It is interesting that the selection has been quietly backed in a fairly sustained manner this morning and afternoon, and she is strong in the offices and on the exchanges. It wouldn't have taken much money to do that, but these connections are very shrewd and aren't afraid to bet when they feel their horse is overpriced. I think there is plenty of juice is the 20/1 yet and would expect her to go off shorter. Of the raced horses, I wouldn't be afraid of anything in particular, and of those yet to race I can't see anything on their pages to frighten me, or to suggest that our selection should be a much bigger price than them. As a result I'm happy to play each-way and win to a reasonable stake.
Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +97.85 / year: +185.15
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