5.00 Fairyhouse BOYLESPORTS IRISH GRAND NATIONAL CHASE (Extended Handicap Chase) (Grade A) (5yo+)
N.B. - Use a bookmaker who pays 5 places on each-way bets.
Daring Article 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Golden Wonder 1pt each-way @ 22/1 / 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 2nd
Saoirse Dun 1pt each-way @ 28/1 / 25/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 3rd
This looks a difficult handicap but I think these things are best simplified and I'm looking for a horse who may be underestimated by the handicapper, who might improve for a bit of decent ground, who will probably stay and is fit and ready for the test. You'd be surprised how many that rules out. After that, we're looking for horses underestimated in the market with one or two key bits of form to their name, and I've sided with the above three.
Daring Article gets in off a low weight, and a right handed track combined with good ground and a big field seems to suit him. His handicap mark seems to have been protected with this race in mind, but his win in December suggested he is very much on the up and he is a strong stayer. He unseated his rider on his chase debut but has generally jumped well since bar a fall at Leopardstown at Christmas, when he had every chance six out and may have been unsighted at his fence. He looks very well handicapped off OR129 given he has already posted RPR's of 134 and 137 over fences, and as a stout stayer he is well worth backing.
Golden Wonder is one of Dessie Hughes' Novices and he gets the go ahead to run here after just four chase starts. He is definitely suited by this type of ground and was very tenderly ridden over 3m1f here last time out, not really asked to win in the closing stages. Although he is inexperienced, he has a point to point background and with fitness guaranteed and a mark of OR135 already looking leniant based on his RPR of 145 last time, he is worth backing at the prices.
Saoirse Dun is by a half sister to Native Jack, who was also trained by Philip Rothwell and was adaptable in regards to ground. The selection was staying on really well behind Gallant Oscar last time out and on breeding this son of Flemensfirth might be the one better suited to the quicker ground today. He will need luck in running given his hold up style, but he is another who stays strongly and if they go off quickly up front, he might be able to travel into the race and pick up the principals at the business end of the contest. He is ridden by a 7lb claimer who knows him well. His Punchestown second behind Madam Bovary last April looked a decent performance, with the likes of Spring Heeled in behind, and the fact that he has been lightly raced since might only mean he is better handicapped than he would have been had he been winning races in the interim. His run in March was full of promise and he is another who is far too big at the prices. Should one of our selections finish in the first five, we'll get most of our stake back at the very least.
Profit & loss: day: +8.25 / month: +198.50 / year: +138.25
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