Onwards and upwards, two selections for today:
1pt each-way double on today's selections, 20/1 / 22/1 generally guaranteed.
5.30 Punchestown Reve De Sivola 1pt each-way @ 22/1 / 20/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 2pts win @ Betfair SP
An interesting renewal in that Quevega was probably less impressive at cheltenham this year than any other, which might be down to race fitness (usually comes on for that run) or perhaps age and a decline in ability. If it is indeed the latter, she probably has to be taken on at close to even money. Saying that, her closest market rivals don't entice. At Fisher's Cross has looked ropey going right handed, and Fingal Bay isn't really proven at this level. The one who looks overpriced is Reve De Sivola, who was a well beaten second last year when five lengths behind Quevega. It was a hell of a test in the ground last year and I just wonder if Daryle Jacob gave the selection the best chance of winning, or did he set the race up for the mare? Barry Geraghty takes over in the saddle this year which is a huge positive, and the watering Punchestown have done as well as 2mm of rain overnight and a splash this morning should mean the selection won't have excuses on that score. He looks more certain to run his race than most of these and looks too big at 20/1 on an each-way basis. We'll also include him in an each-way double.
6.40 Punchestown God's Own 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 25/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Ladbrokes, Betfair Sportsbook, Racebets, guaranteed) - WON
I was dead against the Irish form for the Arkle at Cheltenham, as I think they're an average bunch of two milers with the exception of Champagne Fever, who seems to me to have been difficult to get right this year. Balder Succes trades 5/2 here, but God's Own wasn't far behind him in February and there are reasons to believe he might reverse that form. He has skipped Cheltenham and Aintree, and this would appear to have been the plan all along. The selection appears to be much more comfortable running clockwise, but the form of his Doncaster run on chase debut behind Next Sensation and in front of Turn Over Sivola looks strong in retrospect. At a big price, he looks well worth chancing here, especially with Barry Geraghty booked to ride. I don't know what Paddy Brennan was at on him last time but I didn't like the ride anyway. The selection takes a good tug of the bridle, and I have no worries about this two mile trip. 20/1+ is too big.
Profit & loss: day: +74.00 / month: +74.00 / year: +161.25
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