Thursday 29th May 2014

A nice 25/1 winner last night looks like the icing on the cake to a very profitable May. Thanks for the kind messages as always. It's important to remember too, most of the selections are made on the same basis, and backed up by similar assertions made from a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis. Probability dictates that we'll have sequences where lots of winners will show up in a row (which will incline people to think were "on fire") and other sequences where lots of losers will show up in a row (which will incline people to think we're suffering "bad luck lately", or even wonder "are you putting the same effort into the selections as you usually do?"). The only really important number is the percentage we take at the end of the year. Forget the silly sequences that numbers tend to throw up. You won't see me getting a God complex during a winning run or panicking during a losing run. It's literally just numbers messing about, as they're prone to do. Let them at it.

Just one selection for us today.

3.50 Haydock Off The Pulse 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, Betfair Sportsbook, guaranteed) - WON

It's hard to draw conclusions from Off The Pulse's action, pedigree and race record about his ability to act on soft ground. Without going into too much boring detail, there are some positives in his pedigree but they'd be very inconclusive and probably not worth bearing in mind. His action too is difficult to define: his sire Araafa is from the family of Pivotal, and the selection does seem to grab the ground a bit, but I wouldn't be too sure from limited evidence. Both of his starts on ground with soft in the description came after a break, and in his short career he hasn't tended to show his best when fresh. 

So it is entirely possible in my view that the horse will actually improve for a soft surface today, just as much as it will potentially hinder him. I watched the replay of his previous Haydock run on good ground and he does look a galloper rather than a quickener, and his slightly grabbing action led me to think today's soft ground could perhaps be in his favour. His return on good to soft ground at Ripon was decent: he was upped to ten furlongs but looked too fresh, ring rusty and he was keen stepped up in trip. He made a challenge a couple of furlongs out but faded fairly tamely in the latter stages, not pushed around.

John Mackie's stable have been in really good form in recent days, with a Nottingham winner backed up by two close seconds. They are 0-23 here on the flat over the past five seasons but that sample size is small enough not to bother me too much, and they have had a winner here over jumps in that timeframe (1-7 here under N.H. rules). The handicapper has been kind in my view in dropping the selection 4lbs, and the booking of Ben Curtis, who has really impressed so far this season, looks a positive call. He can do the light weight no problem and it catches the eye that it is his only mount of the day. We'll play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: +61.60 / month: +221.05 / year: +307.65