Thursday 8th May 2014

Two selections for early afternoon, and third may follow, but I want to check our the ground at Chester and also see what the surface is riding like at Southwell.

1.45 Chester 

Marcret 3pts win @ 5/1 (Generally guaranteed)

That's Plenty 3pts win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Marcret looks to have been specifically prepared for this race by the excellent David O'Meara, and as a course specialist who goes well on today's ground and is in good form, he looks good value at 5/1. His draw won't matter today because this will all be about how the race is run, rather than who can grab the rail, with the ground having turned soft (in fact this could take quite a lot of getting; I'm not sure if Chester watered recently and are trying to brush it under the carpet!). His defeat of Myplacelater here is really strong form in the context of this race and as a result he gets the shout.

That's Plenty is added. His second in the Irish Lincoln again looks really strong form, and that was on soft ground. One of Ireland's top apprentices has been booked for the ride and takes a very useful 3lb off, and the horse seems to be in the form of his life. He looks like an adaptable sort but I wouldn't want him to hit the front too soon. He has definitely been underestimated at 7/1.

1.55 Southwell General Tufto 3pts each-way @ 4/1 (Bet 365, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Betfair SPortsbook, guaranteed) - E/W 2nd @ 5/1

Solarmaite could run away with this based on her last run, but she isn't a frequent winner and she looked a little tired to me at the end of that race and I'm very much inclined to take her on here. Most of these struggle to win races, but it is notable that there is a bit of pace on with the favourite, Roger Thorpe, Refuse Colette and others inclined to race prominently. The favourite might have to put some work in to get the lead she wants stepped back three furlongs in trip as a result, and that might set the race up for the fast finisher General Tufto. He has been in fine form, and there was nothing wrong with his run last time out. He has drifted in the betting this morning but on measure that wouldn't worry me, and I think he makes a good each-way bet to nothing.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +172.60 / year: +259.85