Saturday 10th May 2014

Two races of interest for Saturday.

3.30 Haydock Loyaute 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)

I can't see why the Nicholls and Venetia William's horses are as short as they are here and I'm inclined to take them on with a horse who looks underestimated in the market for lesser known connections. Loyaute is an in form mare whose stamina over this kind of trip and ability to act on this ground will stand her in good stead with Haydock having taken plenty of rain in the last few days. The selection actually holds Vibrato Voltat on a tenuous line through Baltimore Rock, whom she defeated giving 4lbs away in February. That form looks strong in light of Baltimore Rock's progression since, and it doesn't seem like rocket science to suggest that the mare is the bet at 14/1 here, rather than the overbet favourite, even though the formlines are fairly tenuous.

3.50 Ascot

Brownsea Brink 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Gramercy 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 5th

Ascot has also taken some rain, and judging by last night's racing the seven furlongs here could take some getting. As a result, I'm very happy to have Richard Hughes and Jamie Spencer on my side. Both jockeys are fine judges of pace. Hughes' mount Brownsea Brink took his form to another level last time out in the Spring Cup and he comes here looking like a four year old on the upgrade. He is well handicapped based on that performance and his stamina for a mile will stand him in good stead here. The handicapper has been kind in leaving his mark unchanged. Gramercy will like the ground, being by Whipper. He tends to run as many bad races as good, but he certainly saves his best for Ascot and is something of a course specialist. His course form gives him every chance of winning this, and the return of blinkers, which coincided with a return to form last year, suggests connections mean business today. He appears to have been laid out for the race and 25/1 is too big.

Profit & loss: day: -3.75 / month: +163.85 / year: +251.15