Wednesday 14th May 2014

A cracking card for day one of York's Dante festival.

2.15 York

Lancelot Du Lac 2pts win @ 11/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Secret Witness 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Out Do 1pt each-way @ 20/1 / 18/1 (Generally guaranteed)

York is a specialist track in my view and the old "horses for courses" adage holds true at times. Lancelot Du Lac comes here a fit horse and has had excuses for his last couple of performances. He is high in the handicap, but is arguably better on turf than the all weather and his course form is very strong. I think he is too big a price at anything in double figures and I'll include him as one of three selections. Secret Witness ran well at Ascot last time out and is now well handicapped. He won this race two years ago and although he can't be called progressive, there is little doubt he has been laid out for the race with an identical prep to 2012 and James Doyle is reunited with him. He should be backed each-way at 16/1. David O'Meara's horses go very well at York and his Our Do has some good 2013 form in key races. He was well supported on his reappearance at Newmarket and  travelled well, but did not handle the dip. He has in-form Kieren Fallon, who is peerless around here except for perhaps Ryan Moore, in the saddle and he is too big at 20/1.

2.45 York Lady Heidi 4pts win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)

1pt each-way double with Abscent Friends, 8/1 and 8/1 generally guaranteed)

Lady Heidi looks overpriced given that she has achieved the best performances of any horse in this race on ratings. She seems bound to improve at a three year old, and she has a pedigree which suggests the step up to this trip will bring about further improvement. A small stable means she hasn't got the credit she has deserved, and although the form is open to question I really like the way she finished out her race on heavy ground at Pontefract. She'll have no problem in the prevailing conditions this afternoon and she looks too big at 8/1. We'll include her in an each-way double with Abscent Friends.

4.25 York Abscent Friends 4pts win @ 9/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed)

The "sexy" horses have been priced up short enough here, and I think there is tremendous value in the price of Bill Turner's Abscent Friends. He is a gangly looking sort who didn't handle Newmarket's dip at all on his penultimate start, and was messed about a bit in a strange Ascot race last time out. He doesn't lack for speed and I always think speed is what wins races over the Knavesmire's five furlongs. He isn't necessarily favoured by the race conditions, which mean he has to carry a penalty, but he will definitely handle the ground and the flat five furlongs on a sharp track is just what he wants. As an aside, I remember his sire Showcasing running an arguably unlucky second in the Duke Of York here, and I think his son can go one place better this afternoon.

Profit & loss: day: -16.00 / month: +145.85 / year: +233.15