4.00 Lingfield Clapperboard 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Bet Victor, guaranteed) - E/W 2nd
I expect the recent rise in temperatures to give us the front running bias we have become accustomed to at Lingfield in recent years at this time of year. The heat expands the polytrack surface and with it being drier than usual, lots of kickback is produced making it difficult for hold up horses. Clapperboard is an in form filly who races prominently and has been put in here off a low weight. She gets a stone and upwards off all the fancied horses, and given that I don't particularly fancy Capaill Liath or Seek The Fair Land, she becomes interesting as a bet. Kimbali is the big danger, but he is routinely slowly away and I see no reason why that should change today. He can't be a bet at 7/2 as a result. Clapperboard stays a mile and was outpaced over seven by a Kirby / Evans horse last time out. If connections have bothered to spend any time reading this race, they'll make sure William Carson rides her aggressively to get the lead. 14/1 looks very fair.
4.30 Lingfield Hustle Bustle 6pts win @ 9/2 (Totesport, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, independents, guaranteed)
Hustle Bustle looks a progressive filly and is taken to resume winning ways here. I don't fancy Frangipanni and think she is extremely short - to be honest I wouldn't back her at 10/1. The selection has had a refreshing break, and having had a troubled wide trip last time out, pressured for the lead and caught in the straight, she has probably needed it. She is physically scopey and seems an uncomplicated ride. The booking of an up and coming 5lb claimer looks a good idea, and I expect her to try and make all from stall 4.
Profit & loss: day: -3.40 / month: +89.45 / year: +176.75
No comments:
Post a Comment