4.45 Ascot Sword Of The Lord 4pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 6/1 (Generally guaranteed - Maximum Bet)
I'd say this is my bet of the flat season so far, as the staking suggests. It's a simple case of price: Sword Of The Lord opened 7/2 with Ladbrokes early this morning, and I think that is the horse's correct price in this race. Sustained support for Russian Realm has seen the selection drift to a huge 6/1, which is widely available, and I think the horse merits a maximum stakes interest, each-way and win with a place covering the outlay.
The selection didn't do much as a juvenile, nor would I have expected him to, because he is a big horse who would have needed time to fill out his frame. It is interesting he began his three year old campaign as 3/1jf in a Lingfield handicap, connections clearly feeling he had filled his frame. It took him a bit longer to properly get the hang of things, and he broke his maiden at Brighton in October, on his seventh start. He followed that up with another win over the same course and distance, before he was put away for the winter.
His first start this year was very promising. He was settled in rear, and was held onto for an awful long time by Willie Twiston Davies, travelling like much the best horse, but the first and third raced on a different part of the track and were sent on a lot sooner. Our lad got to them on the bridle, but that probably took too much out of him on his first start back and he eventually battled on for second. I thought it was a massive, massive run, and the winner Memory Cloth, who had the benefit of fitness, has since won a competitive Haydock handicap to complete a hat trick. He was dangerously handicapped off OR70 at Leicester, and Megan Carberry was taking 7lb off to boot.
The selection looks a typical Ascot horse to me - the track suits strong travelling hold up horses as a rule. He represents a stable who do well at the track, and he has Tom Queally taking over in the saddle this afternoon. Added to that, he is proven on soft ground where the favourite is probably not guaranteed to enjoy it as a son of Dansili with a good ground action. Hopefully all 12 go to post and we'll get 1/4 odds on the place part of the bet. I really can't see any negatives, and as such the selection will be a maximum bet.
Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +147.50 / year: +87.25
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