Second place with yesterday's selection was a fair result - Sir Pedro was ultimately beaten by a better horse on the day, having been well punted.
Three selections for day one of Chester's excellent May meeting.
1.45 Chester Agadoo 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 33/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
This looks a funny contest, and has the potential for a shock result in my view. Most of the horses drawn on the inside are underpriced based on what they have achieved on the track, and the really good horses are drawn too wide to back them with confidence at the prices they are available at. Agadoo is drawn very well in stall 4 and I've taken a chance on her at huge odds. It should be pointed out that she got a really good educational ride from Michael Murphy first time up, he found plenty of cover and produced her to make a challenge late on, and although she was green at one point she responded well to the whip and was really motoring at the finish. Her stable are not renowned for two year olds but it is interesting she is sent here with a really good jockey booked (13% strike rate here). I think she is very much overpriced and given normal improvement, she should be thereabouts if she gets a good position early on.
2.45 Chester Clowance Estate 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Clowance Estate is drawn poorly, but James Doyle is an excellent jockey and I am happy to support the selection with his draw factored into his price as a result. He is still lightly raced and has performed with credit in the face of a few stiff tasks for an inexperienced horse. I think there is more to come from him as a five year old, and his recent all weather form interests me because he doesn't necessarily have a polytrack pedigree. There might well be further improvement to come on fast turf and this course should suit him. 16/1 looks too big and he represents very good each-way value.
Red Baron is an absolute lunatic of a horse, I always remember him bolting at the start at Musselburgh last year, and a debate on whether he should have been withdrawn, before he bolted up when he finally consented to go in the stalls. He has continued to improve this season and I was deeply impressed by his Doncaster win. I am happy to forgive him his last run, because he does have his off days and can hang, but with cheekpieces on today and a fair draw I think he can serve it up to these better class sprinters. I believe the selection remains well handicapped and his stable have started the season well. Fast ground holds no fears and if he can break well and get a good position, he might be hard to catch. 14/1 is too big.
Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: +178.60 / year: +265.85
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