Thursday 26th June 2014

Just one bet for today.

4.30 Newcastle Gabrial The Thug 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed - Paddy Power pay 4 places on this race) - WON 25c R4

Gabrial The Thug is now 0-21 for his career, but he is with a top handler and it is interesting connections persevere with him. I have watched him a few times, and have long thought a strong pace in a big field coupled with a stiff finish are what he needs to finally get his head in front. He gets this scenario for the first time this afternoon. The selection looks well handicapped off OR53 based on his 2013 form, and he appeared to be nearing his best when running on into third at Bath last time out behind Elizabeth Coffee. I don't think Bath suited him very well, and with a decent pace to run at on this flat, stiff track, I think he can reverse form. David Nolan has impressed me this season and takes the ride. Richard Fahey boasts a 13% strike rate here from a large number of runners, and his representatives can usually be trusted to run to their best form at Newcastle.

Profit & loss: day: +27.00 / month: -11.40 / year: +312.50

Wednesday 26th June 2014

Just one selection for this evening.

8.20 Kempton Backstage Gossip 3pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 6/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 11/2 generally guaranteed)

Hughie Morrison is a very talented, patient handler of racehorses and it interests me he has left Backstage Gossip off for 34 days since her maiden win at Salisbury. The filly has been awarded a fair looking opening handicap mark of OR69 having travelled like a decent horse at the Wiltshire venue last time, although that race didn't look up to much. She is the price she is today because she looked a bit sluggish at Lingfield on her previous start (polytrack), but a quick watch of the race shows she was the victim of a horrendous amount of kickback in her face and her jockey didn't really persevere in the closing stages. That was only her second career start and I thought she did well to finish second. The Racing Post suggests today's trip is a minimum for the horse on pedigree but I would happily take that view on based on her run style, and in any case there looks to be a decent pace on the cards here with Clearing and possiblly Light Rose set to get on with things. The selection is drawn widest of eight but I think her trainer has spotted this race in the program book and has trained her specifically for it. She is favoured by the conditions with three year olds getting a 7lb allowance and her age group having won the last five renewals. I'm not overly impressed by the other three year olds in here and I don't think any of the opposition hold particular fears. 11/2+ looks very fair and I think it is worth playing each-way and win to a nice stake.

Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: -38.40 / year: +285.50

Monday 23rd June 2014

Just one selection for Monday.

4.10 Chepstow Concrete Mac 5pts win @ 8/1 (Betfred, 15/2 Paddy Power, 7/1 generally guaranteed)

Concrete Mac was a bigger price this morning, but I think anything 7/1 or better still represents decent value and I have a feeling he might drift back out on course. The selection represents Hughie Morrison, whose horses are running well, and whose 3yos boast a 17% strike rate at this track. The selection was probably unlucky not to win here on his second start at 50/1, when he was badly impeded by a rival hanging right across the track. Concrete Mac eventually finished second. He has a poor run at Salisbury last time out to overcome but his previous run at Bath was full of promise, and that race has worked out very well. The inexperienced apprentice who rides him has been replaced by Pat Dobbs today, and a slight easing of his handicap mark gets him in to 0-70 company. He is drawn well to take a prominent sit behind the leaders and make a challenge late. His experience of this specialist track will stand him in good stead and the step up to seven furlongs looks almost certain to suit this son of Mastercraftsman.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -30.40 / year: +293.50

Royal Ascot 2014 - Day Five

Another tough day yesterday, and here's hoping we can finish with a flourish on a day we traditionally do well.

2:30 Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f

Non Account Bet: Justice Well each-way @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)

No interest in betting in this tough looking juvenile contest, but Justice Well impressed me on his debut and looks overpriced at 14/1.

3:05 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m4f

Non Account Bet: Elidor each-way @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 4th

Happy to sit this race out too, Elidor makes some appeal and looks a fair each-way bet at 12/1.

3:45 Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f

Selection: Pether's Moon 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

Richard Hughes has always believed there will be a big race in Pether's Moon, and I think it could be today. The form of the selection's two runs this season have been franked, and although he didn't look like he wanted to go past Gatewood last time, I think he simply got tired having been turned out quite quickly for what was his second run of the season. This horse will love fast ground and the round course, and I expect Hughes to come fast and late with a hold up ride.

4:25 Diamond Jubilee Stakes (British Champions Series & Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) Cl1 6f

Already Advised:  Due Diligence, 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 66/1 (Sporting Bet, Spreadex, 50/1 Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, Racebets, independents) - E/W 2nd

Additional Selection: Astaire 4pts win @ 11/1 / 10/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Those of you who were with us last month are sitting on a nice ante post bet with Due Diligence, and he appears to be drawn well should connections decide to tack across to the stands rail like Starspangledbanner did for them in 2010. I make him around a 12/1 shot on my book, so 50/1+ is a great price, but I wouldn't go backing him at 8/1 if I wasn't on already.

Last year Clive Cox was expected to win the King's Stand with Reckless Abandon, who bombed out, and Cox ended up unexpectedly winning the Diamond Jubilee with Lethal Force. This year, it is Kevin Ryan who has the abundance of sprinting talent, with Hot Streak acquitting himself well in the King's Stand but failing to justify favouritism. It is an interesting symmetry and even the prices are quite similar. However, the form is there for all to see and Astaire's defeat of his stablemate last year looks like really strong sprinting form now. The selection ran a really nice race at York last time out, only beaten by Maarek who is a soft ground specialist. Today's conditions should suit much better, and although the draw could have been kinder, I do think he is one of the few out and out six furlong sprinters in here with improvement in him. Jamie Spencer rides Ascot really well and his booking is a positive.

5:00 Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f

Selection: Alben Star 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 22/1 / 20/1 (Generally guaranteed - get 5 places paid) - E/W 4th

Clients will be familiar with our strategy of backing multiple horses in these big field handicaps, so it should be noted that I've decided to stick my eggs in the one basket here with Alben Star. Quite simply, I think a stiff six furlongs, with an uphill finish and a very strong pace, are absolutely his ideal conditions. He is so tailor made for this race it's almost funny. He will need a hell of a lot of luck, as you always do at Ascot, but he appears to have a perfect draw and the booking of Paul Hanagan is a bonus. We backed him when he won at Lingfield earlier this year, and he was the only one able to sit in behind a very strong pace that day, and pick up down the home straight, where others either got outpaced completely or sank in a hole having travelled on the speed. He has that particular blend of speed and stamina required for the Wokingham, and he appears to be at the peak of his powers. The York run looked like a cheeky prep for this, and he got just the one crack with the whip before being allowed to coast home over an inadequate sharp five furlongs. This looks like it has been the plan for a while, and I think the 20/1+ represents excellent value.

5:35 Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) Cl2 2m5f159y

Non Account Bet: Pique Sous to win @ 7/2 / 10/3 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

No interest in Pique Sous at this kind of price, but he does strike me as the likely winner and might finish the week off on a good note for those who want to have an interest.

Profit & loss: day: +16.00 / month: -25.40 / year: +298.50

Royal Ascot 2014 - Day Four

Born In Bombay put us ahead for the day yesterday, he remains on the up as I had suspected. He got a really good ride from David Probert.

Multiple interests for today:

2:30 Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 6f CH4

Non Account Bet: Patience Alexander to win @ 5/1 / 9/2 (Generally guaranteed) 

No bet in this race, but Patience Alexander ought to run her race although the price doesn't represent much value.

3:05 Wolferton Handicap (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f CH4

Selection: Energizer 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Coral, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed)

Looks well handicapped based on his win in the Tercentinary Stakes here a couple of years ago. He disappointed at Meydan this winter but may not have enjoyed front running, and he is worth another shot with Adam Kirby in the plate for the first time today. He will have to overcome a wide draw, but I think plenty of early cover will suit and he should see his race out strongly.

3:45 King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 1m4f

Non Account Bet: Miner's Lamp each-way @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Again no bet here, but Milner's Lamp looks a shade too big and looks a fair each-way shout for those who want to get involved.

4:25 Coronation Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies) (Round course) Cl1 1m

Selection: Tapestry 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)

A wide open Coronation Stakes. It is noticeable there isn't much pace in the race, and I just wonder if Joseph O'Brien will take the bull by the horns from stall two and perhaps try to make all or sit prominently. The selection has to overcome a poor run in the Guineas, but she wasn't right on the day and she is perhaps best judged on her two year old form, closely matched with Kiyoshi and Rizeena. I like Tapestry's pedigree and think she should train on well. The stable are in good form and, after Bracelet overcame a poor last time out run yesterday, they can repeat the dose with another overpriced filly.

5:00 Queen´s Vase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m

Non Account Bet: Hartnell to win @ 4/1 (Generally) - WON

No bet here but I prefer Hartnell to Marzocco and the 4/1 looks just about fair.

5:35 Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 7f

Selections:

Blaine 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally guaranteed, get 5 places paid)

Georgian Bay 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally guaranteed, get 5 places paid)

Blaine has stall one to overcome, but the booking of James Doyle would suggest connections mean business and this horse looks very well handicapped and is now back in form. His trainer excels in big field handicaps and I would think they'll be tempted to either make all on the far rail, or at least stay far side - I don't think the draw bias is quite as pronounced as it seems. 25/1 looks very fair.

Georgian Bay is drawn on the seemingly preferred stand's side, and it doesn't take a genius to see he was definitely inconvenienced by racing far side in the Brittania last time out. His finishing effort was strong, and he looks far too big at the current prices under the excellent Graham Lee.

Profit & loss: day: -15.00 / month: -41.40 / year: +282.50

Royal Ascot 2014 - Day Three

A tough enough day yesterday, with Chill The Kite in particularly frustrating in finishing second in the Royal Hunt Cup.

Another excellent card of racing today and hopefully a better return:

2:30 Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f

Selection: Mukhmal 3pts each-way @ 9/2 (Generally guaranteed - get 1/4 odds paid)

I was really impressed with Mukhmal's debut effort at Musselburgh. He is a really game horse with a very high cruising speed, and seems to me to be tailor made for this contest. He overcame the widest stall at Chester last time out, which takes some doing, and he looks a no-brainer each-way selection against The Great War today. That rival hasn't come off the bridle yet, not something I generally like in a two year old, and I'm happy to take him on at the prices.

3:05 Tercentenary Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f

Selection: Somewhat 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed - get 1/4 odds paid)

Has an ungainly action but is extremely tough on his day and came back to form at Chester last time out, where he appeared ill at ease around the tight bends before running on late. I would expect him to make the running here and he should be tough to pass. Conditions will suit perfectly and he looks well handicapped off OR102 given his two year old peak of OR112. He retains some fancy entries and looks the type to improve as the summer stretches on.

3:45 Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) Cl1 1m4f 

Non Account Bet: Bright Approach to win @ 6/1

No betting interest here, but Bright Approach would be my idea of the winner should she confirm her debut promise, having been found to be in season last time out.

4:25 Gold Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 2m4f 

Selection: Ahzeemah 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally, get 1/4 odds paid)

This isn't the strongest renewal of this great race, and outside Leading Light you have horses who either don't have the class, won't like the ground, or, like the favourite, don't have copper-bottomed stamina. Ahzeemah falls into the latter category but he is worth chancing at the prices. The selection has a really good record at Ascot (121 when the ground has been good or faster) and represents a stable who seem to get the best out of their horses in these staying events. He is well drawn to take a midfield sit and will love what should be lightning fast ground. His Londsdale Cup win showed he gets an extended to miles, but two and a half is a step into the unknown. He looks very likely to run his race at least until the turn in, and on that basis the 25/1 looks too big.

5:00 Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Bobis Race) (Straight course) Cl2 1m

Selections:

Born In Bombay 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed, get paid 5 places) - WON

Third Dimension 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed - get paid 5 places)

I have liked Born In Bombay since his Kempton maiden win, and have had him in mind for this race ever since. He looks well handicapped, open to improvement, and seems to have come up trumps with the draw if yesterday is anything to go by. Third Dimension is partnered by an excellent 3lb claimer and I find it interesting Ger Lyons has him entered in a Group 3 event over the summer. He is also drawn well and looks potentially thrown in based on his maiden win which is working out well.

5:35 King George V Stakes (Handicap) (Bobis Race) Cl2 1m4f

Selection: Arab Dawn 3pts win @ 10/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Hughie Morrison's horses have been running well all week and Jimmy Fortune might just be set to ride what would be an emotional Royal Ascot winner following the recent passing of his wife. The selection looks really progressive to me, and I like that he is in the habit of winning cosily. These horses are difficult for the handicapper to get a handle on, and I quite fancy him to land a fourth win on the trot in the day's closer.

Profit & loss: day: +13.50 / month: -26.40 / year: +297.50

Royal Ascot 2014 - Day Two

Not a bad start to the week yesterday with each-way money at 12/1 and 22/1 from our four selections.

Day two is traditionally my quietest day betting wise, but we have interests in four contests.

2:30 Jersey Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f

Selection: Big Time 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed - Bet 365 pay 4 places)

Last ran in the Irish Guineas where soft to heavy ground was completely against him. His two year old form with Sudirman looks strong, and although that rival doesn't seemed to have maintained his progression, he looked more of a two year old where Big Time is a big horse who may have needed more time to fill his frame. The Guineas run was decent in the context of this Group 3, and faster ground should see an improved performance.

3:05 Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) Cl1 5f

Non Account Bet: Anthem Alexander to win @ 11/4 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

Not a betting race but Anthem Alexander seems to have the best form in the book. I'll take her against the American filly, who is difficult to weigh up.

3:45 Prince of Wales´s Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f

Selection: Dank 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed - get 1/4 odds 3 places paid)

A cracking renewal. Treve wins this based on her Arc run, and perhaps even on her reappearance behind Cirrus Des Aigles. However, she had a tough race and I'll always recall her carrying her head at a funny angle after the Arc, looking like a bit of a madam / a bit temperamental, and I wondered if she would train on. I'll oppose her each-way given the eight runners and 1/4 odds generally available.

Mukhadram represents a stable who aren't quite firing and I wouldn't describe him as a potential improver. Last year's races may have taken a lot out of him and although he should run his race, he represents no value to me. Magician has drifted in the market, and although he is a tempter he would have gotten got nowhere near Noble Mission last time out had that rival not eased down. The first time tongue tie is not a positive for me and I'll take him on too. The Fugue is also taken on: I think she is an autumn mare and little below this class.

This should be run at a strong pace and I have to ask, what will be suited by a strong pace over ten furlongs on fast ground? Dank was the answer for me. I always take note when Sir Michael Stoute enters one in a Group 1 race like this, and I don't buy that it's a ground based alternative to the Pretty Polly. Dank was beginning to pick up Group 1 races last year and she might improve again aged five. Ryan Moore is in the plate, and will be keen to try and make up for her last run in Dubai where she didn't get a clear run but finished well. 14/1 looks far too big in my view.

4:25 Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) (Straight course) Cl1 1m

Non Account Bet: Esoterique each-way @ 11/2 / 5/1 (Generally guaranteed)

No account bet here, but Esoterique looks a decent each-way bet to nothing in my view and might be a half point overpriced.

5:00 Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Straight course) Cl2 1m

Selections:

Chill The Kite 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed, get 5 places paid) - E/W 2nd

Belgian Bill 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed, get 5 places paid)

Red Avenger 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Generally guaranteed, get 5 places paid)

Ingleby Angel 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (Generally guaranteed - get 5 places paid)

Some will scoff at having four selections in one race, but the each-way terms are so generous that it makes a lot of sense - just one place will get most of our outlay back and who knows after that. Chill The Kite won impressively last time out and is tailor made for this race. He is a Group class horse in a handicap in my view, and although he might be anchored by 9-9 he has a very good jockey in the plate and not much dead weight in the saddle. Belgian Bill won this race last year, almost always gives his running here, and needs little explaining. Red Avenger is closely matched with Abseil based on Epsom form. He will love this ground being by War Front, and looks well handicapped. He may actually come on for his last run and 25/1 is too big. Ingleby Angel represents David O'Meara, who has been targetting this race with his handicappers. He has been in decent form, and has very few questions to answer as regards conditions, and he also looks well handicapped. 40/1 is too big.

5:35 Sandringham Handicap (Listed Race) (Fillies) (Straight course) Cl1 1m

Selection: Odisseia 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Odisseia has been sent over by Eddie Lynam and I thought she won with plenty in hand last time out over ten furlongs. She travels well and appears to be the type who will improve for a strongly run straight mile with a stiff finish. 12/1 looks very fair with 4 places paid each-way.

Profit & loss: day: -16.00 / month: -39.90 / year: +284.00

Royal Ascot 2014 - Day One

A cracking five day festival of top class racing kicks off today.

We have multiple interests, but I've been a little bit careful because the ground after watering is an unknown in my view. We won't know how the track rides until after today, but it's the same for everyone and I'm assuming genuine good ground at the moment.

2:30 Queen Anne Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Straight course) Cl1 1m

Selection: Anodin 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get 1/4 odds 3 places guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

My instinct here is to take on Toronado, who has been off the track for 300 days and returns to racing in a competitive Group 1. He is clear on ratings, but may not be match fit, as it were, and there is value to be had elsewhere. I don't rate the Lockinge form at all, and I'm against Verrazano and Tullius with that in mind. Verrazano looked ill at ease on Newbury's straight track and Ascot's vast expanse might not suit him. 

Connections spent a few bob supplementing Anodin, and he is my idea of the bet here at 12/1. His run behind Cirrus Des Aigles last time out has since been franked, and I'm not even sure the race was run to suit him. He is a keen, strong travelling horse who perhaps isn't best served by racing around a bend. I think a patient ride over a straight mile could see him improve again, and he has the right jockey on board in Olivier Peslier. The above staking ensures the return of our stake should he run in the first three.

3:05 Coventry Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f

Non Account Bet: Cappella Sansevero to win @ 8/1

Not a betting race for me this year. This looks very competitive and four or five could win it. I also think the race has been quite defensively priced and it doesn't appeal for each-way punters. Cappella Sansevero has been purchased by Qatar Racing on the even of the meeting, and he is a token choice to land the spoils. He won impressively at the Curragh last time out and if he continues in that vein, would have every chance.

3:45 King´s Stand Stakes (British Champions Series & Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) Cl1 5f

Selection: Rex Imperator 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed - Bet 365 and Coral pay 4 places)

Rex Imperator is a horse I've really likes for a while now, and his performance in the Steward's Cup (tipped by us!) marked him down as a class act. He has always shown bundles of speed and I think the drop back to five furlongs could see him make his mark in Group 1 company here. It is a tall order, but he has a few things in his favour. His recent reappearance was eye catching: he pulled hard as usual over the six furlongs at Windsor and made ground easily, despite looking to need the run. He was never touched with the whip, and eventually finished hard held in second, never landing a blow on the winner. It bore all the hallmarks of a prep race, and I find it interesting the cheekpieces that he wore in the Steward's Cup and thereafter last season are now reapplied. The selection seems to be drawn well in my view, near some of the faster horses, and I think 20/1 underestimates his chances. We'll play each-way and win.

4:25 St James´s Palace Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Round course) Cl1 1m

Non Account Bet: Toormore to win @ 10/1 / 9/1 (Generally guaranteed)

This is definitely a race to watch and enjoy. It's a really strong renewal of the St. James's Palace, and any one of the top four could win it. I think the market might have this right, but if pushed I'd probably lay Kingman. For those of you at the track, I'd suggest a small interest on Toormore.

5:00 Ascot Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 2m4f

Selection: Another Cocktail 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Another Cocktail ran a really nice race at this meeting last year in the King George V handicap, which has worked out very well. He is closely related to Fame And Glory, and has shaped for a while now as though step up in trip would be needed to allow him to achieve his potential. He made a nice reappearance over a mile and a half at Epsom, running strongest at the line, and he should be nice and fresh for what is a demanding test over this marathon trip. He is very much bred to stay and appears to have been laid out for the race. He looks well handicapped off OR90, and prices of 20/1+ look too big.

5:35 Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f

Selection: Majestic Hero 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 28/1 / 25/1 (Bet 365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, guaranteed)

This looks a bit of a minefield, but I can't resist a small each-way and win stake on Ron Harris's Majestic Hero. He looked a two year old of some potential at Chepstow, winning easily in the end and having no problem being in front on his own. His attitude looks good and he looks very mature physically. He is not a complicated ride, and I think he can step up plenty on the RPR of 79 he achieved at Chepstow. He is a full brother to New Planet, who was a listed class two year old who posted a peak RPR of 104 (twice) in his juvenile season, and he looks tailor made for this contest on pedigree. Anything 25/1+ with four places paid is too big.

Profit & loss: day: -1.00 / month: -23.90 / year: +300.00

Saturday 14th June 2014

Alejandro was a good winner for us yesterday and I think there are more handicaps in him this year.

Please note: We will not have any selections on Sunday or daily bets for Monday, as I am focusing on Royal Ascot from here on in and will be concentrating on that form. Expect potential Royal Ascot selections on Monday evening for Tuesday's card. I will give plenty of notice as usual.

Two for Saturday.

3.50 York Royal Mezyan 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, guaranteed)

Royal Mezyan looks potentially above handicap class for me and as a result I'm quite keen to support him on his seasonal reappearance despite having to take his fitness on trust. His trainer William Haggas tends to have his horses fit enough first time up, and we saw with Rex Imperator a couple of weeks back that they are quite astute in starting them off in the right race, placing them well. I think the selection could be much better than a mark of OR90 and the booking of Oisin Murphy, who is daylight robbery for his 3lb, is an additional boon. The stable won this two years ago with Sholaan, and I expect the selection to go close for them this afternoon. Anything 10/1+ is too big.

8.05 Lingfield Cyflymder 5pts win @ 9/2 / 4/1 (Generally guaranteed)

It is a credit to his connections that a moderate horse like Cyflymder has been able to pick up nine races in his eighty race career. His handicap mark has dropped over the course of the last year, but he showed he retains plenty of ability in two recent Musselburgh runs, and he is a danger to all here off a mark of OR50. David Probert rides this track particularly well, and the selection's prominent racing style might just be favoured as temperatures rise and the volume of kickback increases. Front runners have tended to be favoured at this time of year, and with many of his rivals either moderate, uncertain to handle conditions or badly drawn in the case of One Way Or Another, I think the 9/2 actually looks very good value and could shorten before the off.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -22.90 / year: +301.00

Friday 13th June 2014

Audacious was the subject of a big gamble yesterday, from 50/1 into a 10/1 SP. He missed the break, and was never really in it.

Two for today.

3.40 York Alejandro 5pts win @ 9/1 / 8/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

David O'Meara is the undisputed king of York these days to my mind, and he can get a fourth 2014 winner at the track with Alejandro this afternoon. The selection was formerly with Richard Fahey, with whom he was beginning to look exposed. However, I think O'Meara may be able to eke some improvement out of him if his last run at Catterick is anything to go by. He ran really well behind Conry in a race run on ground I don't think suited, and he looks well handicapped on that basis. He is 1lb lower than his last winning mark (unchanged from Catterick) and if he can do better again on faster ground at a track I think will suit, then the 8/1+ might look big. Silverstre De Sousa takes the ride, he has a very good record for this trainer both before and since he got the Godolphin job.

5.15 York Sioux Chieftain 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Sioux Rising is a Mick Appleby acquisition who was with Tim Pitt before his debut for his current trainer in October. He ran really well on that debut, in a race that has worked out nicely, and he can be forgiven his recent reappearance in my view. He went off far too fast in the conditions, and I think the run is best just forgotten. There should be improvement to come off OR79 based on the Catterick run, and the selection ran well at York on his only visit here so far. This trainer is a master at improving horses he buys from other stables, and I think Sioux Rising could be the latest in a long line. Ali Rawlinson's 5lb claim is useful in easing the 9-12 burden right down to 9-7, and I think 14/1 is too big. We'll play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: +40.00 / month: -11.90 / year: +312.00

Thursday 12th June 2014

Again, a difficult day to find opportunities despite a decent quantity of racing. I do like one at a huge price:

5.45 Nottingham Audacious 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 50/1 (Totesport, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Bet Victor, guaranteed)

Audacious is aptly named for a 50/1 selection, and he does come with very obvious caveats. He has disappointed current connections over hurdles, and hadn't raced on the flat since September 2012 when he was with Mick Quinn. He has also had breathing issues. However, he has dropped a long way from a peak mark of OR87 when with Sir Michael Stoute, to a mark of just OR58 which he proved he could be competitive off even in the latter stages of his 2012 campaign. He is ideally suited by ten furlongs and good to firm ground, and he ran much better than his finishing position suggests in a Newmarket handicap on his second start of the year in May. He travelled really well into the contest, and came to take the lead around two furlongs out before fading and eventually being beaten 13 1/2 lengths. It bore all the hallmarks of a horse who struggles with his breathing, but I think he can be given another chance here. He drops from a 0-75 into 0-60 company, and a bad 0-60 at that. Connections have declared him in a first time tongue tie and hood, presumably to help his breathing and keep him calm during the race. The stable's horses have been running quite well, and I like the fact that the horse has had a few weeks break since that last run, often a good thing with horses who have niggles like this one. He is likely to travel well into this contest, and after that it is a matter of what his physical condition allows him to find off the bridle. He comes here relatively fresh he might just get away with it against this class of horse. I thought 50/1 was a gross misprice: he isn't the likeliest winner, but I made him a 20/1 shot in this company and I'm happy to play at these prices given that we're getting 12/1+ on the place.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -51.90 / year: +272.00

Tuesday 10th June 2014

Just a note for those of you who are interested in our World Cup service: the ante post portfolio goes out tonight, and selections for the first round of group matches tomorrow. It's not too late to join, £40 covers the whole tournament and you can e-mail us here if you haven't already done so and are interested.

Fairly drab stuff today, it really is the pre-Ascot calm before the storm, but we have one selection.

4.25 Salisbury Men Don't Cry 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 8/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, 7/1 generally guaranteed)

There is growing evidence that this son of Street Cry is best on fast turf, and his form figures over 11 and 12 furlongs on turf since stepping up in trip read 1331. He is quite consistent for a horse of relatively moderate ability, and his recent win at Lingfield on reappearance was game enough to make him worthy of consideration here off just 3lb higher. Although Oisin Murphy had a lot to do with that victory, Freddy Tylicki is an able deputy who has been riding plenty of winners and enjoying a good season himself (winners at 20/1, 11/1, 15/8, 8/1, 7/1, 8/1 at five different tracks in the last fortnight). The selection has a little bit of tactical speed and looks uncomplicated, and that might count for a lot here against the likes of Fanzine and Nave, who both looked to think about it last time before going through with their efforts. It might be that the selection will be outclassed by a better horse(s), but he is unexposed over this distance and after just 12 starts on turf and six over ten furlongs plus, he might still be improving. Progeny of Street Cry tend to prefer fast ground, so I'll be hoping Salisbury doesn't take any rain (only a shower forecast). As a consistent type who has a history of performing well in small fields, I am happy to play each-way and win at anything around 7/1+.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -46.90 / year: +277.00

Saturday 7th June 2014

A cracking day's racing ahead.

3.15 Epsom Seeking Magic 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 9/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Seeking Magic appears to have been laid out for this contest, and he makes plenty of appeal as a fairly handicapped horse, with a high cruising speed, who has experience of downhill tracks. His third at Goodwood at last year's Glorious meeting marked him down as a horse to follow in these conditions, and he has come up trumps with a high draw here. He should get a good tow into the race from the likes of Even Stevens and Caspian Prince, and I think he has enough class to pass those horses late on in the race. The booking of a decent 5lb claimer who knows the horse is a bonus. 

4.00 Epsom Orchestra 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)

I was really impressed by Orchestra's Chester Vase win. His tactical speed, acceleration, nimbleness and his action all marked him down as a potential Epsom natural in my view, and I'm surprised Ryan Moore didn't choose to ride him. Seamie Heffernen rides this track really well (2nd in 2011 Oaks, 2nd in 2010 Derby on a 100/ shot, 2nd in 2009 Derby - thanks to Henry for the research!) and his presence in the saddle is certainly no negative factor. He is beautifully bred, guaranteed to stay, and appears to be well drawn. I think the Chester Vase form might just be the best on offer outside of the 2,000 Guineas, and on that basis Orchestra makes plenty of appeal at eight times the price of Australia. We'll play each-way and win.

4.50 Epsom Blue Wave 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 20/1 (Coral, 18/1 Bet Victor, 16/1 generally guaranteed)

Blue Wave looks a typical tough-as-teak Mark Johnston handicapper, and his improvement probably didn't end at Newmarket last time out. He was probably inconvenienced by racing alone in the centre of the track that day, and I actually think Epsom's tighter track will suit him today. The stable's horses have come into form, and I'm surprised he is available at these odds. A wide draw shouldn't hinder him over this trip. Again we'll play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: -10.50 / month: -40.90 / year: +283.00

Friday 6th June 2014

Just one on the Oaks card. There is a small chance of an evening bet, details before 5.30pm either way.

4.00 Epsom Amazing Maria 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally - Bet 365, Skybet, Paddy Power, many independets pay 1/4 first 4)

Times and visual evidence from the first two races suggest the ground at Epsom is fast, and that will be against the likes of March Daisy and Madame Chiang. Some of the fillies' classic division form looks suspect to me, and I can't have the likes of Ihtimal (looks a non-stayer) or Marvellous (had a hard race last time out). Tarfasha and Taghrooda are the pair who have been trained specifically for this race, and they look the solid options although they don't appeal to me as betting options. I'm inclined to back Amazing Maria with Frankie Dettori on board. The selection is a fine looking, imposing filly who was a very classy two year old. She was scratched from the Guineas but I have no problem with her coming here fresh, particularly with this trainer, who can get a horse ready no problem. She has a giant stride and looked as though she'd make a much better three year old. A good draw in stall twelve and a running style that promises to suit the track are additional factors in her favour. She isn't guaranteed to stay, but her sire Mastercraftsman is making a big impression with horses who stay further than he did, and the chance is worth taking in my view. Fast ground will be no problem to her and she is too big at the current prices.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -30.40 / year: +293.50

Thursday 5th June 2014

One for this afternoon. Possible evening bets: details before 5.30pm.

4.30 Hamilton Baltic Prince 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 18/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, William Hill, guaranteed)

This is a risky bet, obviously, because Baltic Prince isn't a recognised sprinter and is stepping right back in trip this afternoon on ground he has never won on. However, the price certainly compensates and it isn't difficult to make a good case for him enjoying today's conditions and also being well handicapped. The selection ran really well for a long way here last time out over the extended mile, finishing an ultimately well beaten fifth behind I'm Super Too. However, he duelled for the lead for a long way with an improving mare of Mick Easterby's, Alluring Star. They cut each other's throats, and although Baltic Prince got the worst of the argument, that mare is in the form of her life, having recorded three victories in a row before that run. She has since finished second at Carlisle, and the eventual third Ellaal has won at Beverley. The winner, who is a Hamilton specialist, has since finished fourth at Pontefract and second in a competitive York handicap. The form looks very strong for the grade, and it does make Baltic Prince look an attractive proposition dropping into a very average 0-70 today. The selection has plenty of speed, enough so that he managed to cook Alluring Star's goose last time out and ruin her chances. That was only his second run of the season, and he is entitled to come on for it for a yard whose representatives have been out running their odds in many cases just lately. If he has the speed to grab the lead dropped to this trip, he might not come back to them: he has won at Carlisle and Beverley (both stiff finishes) and with no other bona fide front runner in this field, he might even get his own way out in front. Anything 16/1+ is too big and we'll play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -25.40 / year: +298.50

Wednesday 4th June 2014

Two races of interest today.

4.50 Nottingham

Lucky Jim 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Tactical Strike 3pts win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Nottingham has turned soft and I expect further rain to hit the racecourse before this race starts at 4.50pm. I think Lucky Jim will handle the ground and might be able to shed his maiden tag. The selection travelled really well on soft ground on his Newmarket debut behind some very good horses, fading quickly late on as though the run was well needed. He seems to have been difficult to train since then, and disappointed on seasonal debut when well fancied. However, his stable weren't in form at the time and I'm not inclined to blame the ground. The horse ran much better last time out on the all weather, when he did all his best work at the finish in a fair looking contest. His pedigree is packed with stamina on the dam's side and I would expect improvement for the step up to today's trip based on that, and visual evidence from his last run. Given that I think he is likely to handle the ground, and the stable are now in better form, he looks well worth backing. Seb Sanders shows up for the one ride which catches the eye.

Tactical Strike is a lazy, and typically ground-grabbing son of Pivotal who will relish these conditions, particularly if it turns into a slog. His trainer has had this contest in mind for him for a few weeks now, and he gets first time blinkers which he is said to have worked well in:

"I thought Tactical Strike ran really well to finish fourth at Nottingham. It just shows what a difference some urging from the saddle makes. He came off the bridle seven furlongs out and Noel (Garbutt) pushed and pushed and pushed and he was only beaten less than three lengths. He worked in blinkers this morning and he worked really well. He's no superstar but we felt after Nottingham that if he had travelled better earlier in the race he would have been in with a shout of perhaps troubling the winner a bit. He got too far back, off the bridle too soon, but the blinkers will help him travel a little bit sweeter early on. It's not that he doesn't try because he certainly did try putting his head out all the way so that's what we'll do and I think there's another race at Nottingham at the beginning of June." - Trainer Hugo Palmer on his blog, May 17th.

14/1 looks pretty big, and he is another who has plenty of stamina on the dam's side - his mother is related to Allegretto, who won a Group 1 and three Group 2 events over 15 to 16 Furlongs. Interestingly, she won in a first time visor.

6.30 Kempton Xinbama 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 13/2 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 6/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

The passing of John Hills at a young age last week understandably has many in racing in mourning, but although it will be apt if Xinbama can win tonight in the late trainer's fathers name, there are reasons other than sentiment to think the horse might have a strong chance of following up his Lingfield win. I find it interesting the tongue tie he often wore was discarded on his seasonal debut, and his riding tactics were changed. He was held up right in rear by Frankie Dettori and came with one sweeping win to do it quite easily in the end, at a track where those tactics haven't really been easy to pull off lately. I would suggest he may have had work done on his breathing, and it makes sense that he is sent here tonight around this tight 1m2f track. There is some potential pace in here, but the selection won't mind is this isn't truly run: he is something of a ten furlong specialist these days and has no problem winning in small fields. Crucial to his chances will be his position - he is drawn well in stall three to take a midfield sit on the rail, and I would hope Kieren Fallon will have been well briefed on the tactics Frankie Dettori pulled off to a nicety last time out. The jockey booking is interesting, and I think there might be more improvement from Xinbama as a five year old if kept to these conditions. There are quite a few "maybe" horses in here, and I can see a few of these not giving their running around this idiosyncratic tight inner track. If Xinbama can get a tow into the race on the rail and challenge only in the straight, I expect him to go close and I think it makes sense to back him each-way and win with the dead eight running given reservations about a few of the others.

Profit & loss: day: -7.40 / month: -19.40 / year: +304.50

Tuesday 3rd June 2014

Dull enough stuff for us today, one interest for us:

3.10 Brighton Alice's Dancer 6pts win @ 3/1 (Bet 365, Skybet, Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, Independents, guaranteed)

Won this race last year off the same mark, and has been in very good form so far this season for an inform stable, recording form figures of 313 and acquitting herself well each time. The selection is a nippy sort of horse with plenty of tactical speed and the faster the ground stays for her, the better. Interception has been made favourite but she has no course experience and I felt she took plenty of time to respond to Ted Durcan's urgings last time out. Alice's Dancer could be away and gone should she have a bit of a think about it today and at 3/1 the selection represents much better value. I also expect the selection to account for Subtle Knife, who takes more time to get going and might prefer a slower surface.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -12.00 / year: +311.90