Another tough day yesterday, and here's hoping we can finish with a flourish on a day we traditionally do well.
2:30 Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f
Non Account Bet: Justice Well each-way @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)
No interest in betting in this tough looking juvenile contest, but Justice Well impressed me on his debut and looks overpriced at 14/1.
3:05 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m4f
Non Account Bet: Elidor each-way @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 4th
Happy to sit this race out too, Elidor makes some appeal and looks a fair each-way bet at 12/1.
3:45 Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f
Selection: Pether's Moon 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd
Richard Hughes has always believed there will be a big race in Pether's Moon, and I think it could be today. The form of the selection's two runs this season have been franked, and although he didn't look like he wanted to go past Gatewood last time, I think he simply got tired having been turned out quite quickly for what was his second run of the season. This horse will love fast ground and the round course, and I expect Hughes to come fast and late with a hold up ride.
4:25 Diamond Jubilee Stakes (British Champions Series & Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) Cl1 6f
Already Advised: Due Diligence, 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 66/1 (Sporting Bet, Spreadex, 50/1 Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, Racebets, independents) - E/W 2nd
Additional Selection: Astaire 4pts win @ 11/1 / 10/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Those of you who were with us last month are sitting on a nice ante post bet with Due Diligence, and he appears to be drawn well should connections decide to tack across to the stands rail like Starspangledbanner did for them in 2010. I make him around a 12/1 shot on my book, so 50/1+ is a great price, but I wouldn't go backing him at 8/1 if I wasn't on already.
Last year Clive Cox was expected to win the King's Stand with Reckless Abandon, who bombed out, and Cox ended up unexpectedly winning the Diamond Jubilee with Lethal Force. This year, it is Kevin Ryan who has the abundance of sprinting talent, with Hot Streak acquitting himself well in the King's Stand but failing to justify favouritism. It is an interesting symmetry and even the prices are quite similar. However, the form is there for all to see and Astaire's defeat of his stablemate last year looks like really strong sprinting form now. The selection ran a really nice race at York last time out, only beaten by Maarek who is a soft ground specialist. Today's conditions should suit much better, and although the draw could have been kinder, I do think he is one of the few out and out six furlong sprinters in here with improvement in him. Jamie Spencer rides Ascot really well and his booking is a positive.
5:00 Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f
Selection: Alben Star 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 22/1 / 20/1 (Generally guaranteed - get 5 places paid) - E/W 4th
Clients will be familiar with our strategy of backing multiple horses in these big field handicaps, so it should be noted that I've decided to stick my eggs in the one basket here with Alben Star. Quite simply, I think a stiff six furlongs, with an uphill finish and a very strong pace, are absolutely his ideal conditions. He is so tailor made for this race it's almost funny. He will need a hell of a lot of luck, as you always do at Ascot, but he appears to have a perfect draw and the booking of Paul Hanagan is a bonus. We backed him when he won at Lingfield earlier this year, and he was the only one able to sit in behind a very strong pace that day, and pick up down the home straight, where others either got outpaced completely or sank in a hole having travelled on the speed. He has that particular blend of speed and stamina required for the Wokingham, and he appears to be at the peak of his powers. The York run looked like a cheeky prep for this, and he got just the one crack with the whip before being allowed to coast home over an inadequate sharp five furlongs. This looks like it has been the plan for a while, and I think the 20/1+ represents excellent value.
5:35 Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) Cl2 2m5f159y
Non Account Bet: Pique Sous to win @ 7/2 / 10/3 (Generally guaranteed) - WON
No interest in Pique Sous at this kind of price, but he does strike me as the likely winner and might finish the week off on a good note for those who want to have an interest.
Profit & loss: day: +16.00 / month: -25.40 / year: +298.50
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