Thursday, June 26, 2014

Royal Ascot 2014 - Day Four

Born In Bombay put us ahead for the day yesterday, he remains on the up as I had suspected. He got a really good ride from David Probert.

Multiple interests for today:

2:30 Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 6f CH4

Non Account Bet: Patience Alexander to win @ 5/1 / 9/2 (Generally guaranteed) 

No bet in this race, but Patience Alexander ought to run her race although the price doesn't represent much value.

3:05 Wolferton Handicap (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f CH4

Selection: Energizer 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Coral, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed)

Looks well handicapped based on his win in the Tercentinary Stakes here a couple of years ago. He disappointed at Meydan this winter but may not have enjoyed front running, and he is worth another shot with Adam Kirby in the plate for the first time today. He will have to overcome a wide draw, but I think plenty of early cover will suit and he should see his race out strongly.

3:45 King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 1m4f

Non Account Bet: Miner's Lamp each-way @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Again no bet here, but Milner's Lamp looks a shade too big and looks a fair each-way shout for those who want to get involved.

4:25 Coronation Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies) (Round course) Cl1 1m

Selection: Tapestry 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)

A wide open Coronation Stakes. It is noticeable there isn't much pace in the race, and I just wonder if Joseph O'Brien will take the bull by the horns from stall two and perhaps try to make all or sit prominently. The selection has to overcome a poor run in the Guineas, but she wasn't right on the day and she is perhaps best judged on her two year old form, closely matched with Kiyoshi and Rizeena. I like Tapestry's pedigree and think she should train on well. The stable are in good form and, after Bracelet overcame a poor last time out run yesterday, they can repeat the dose with another overpriced filly.

5:00 Queen´s Vase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m

Non Account Bet: Hartnell to win @ 4/1 (Generally) - WON

No bet here but I prefer Hartnell to Marzocco and the 4/1 looks just about fair.

5:35 Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 7f

Selections:

Blaine 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally guaranteed, get 5 places paid)
Georgian Bay 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally guaranteed, get 5 places paid)

Blaine has stall one to overcome, but the booking of James Doyle would suggest connections mean business and this horse looks very well handicapped and is now back in form. His trainer excels in big field handicaps and I would think they'll be tempted to either make all on the far rail, or at least stay far side - I don't think the draw bias is quite as pronounced as it seems. 25/1 looks very fair.

Georgian Bay is drawn on the seemingly preferred stand's side, and it doesn't take a genius to see he was definitely inconvenienced by racing far side in the Brittania last time out. His finishing effort was strong, and he looks far too big at the current prices under the excellent Graham Lee.


Profit & loss: day: -15.00 / month: -41.40 / year: +282.50

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