5.45 Nottingham Audacious 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 50/1 (Totesport, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Bet Victor, guaranteed)
Audacious is aptly named for a 50/1 selection, and he does come with very obvious caveats. He has disappointed current connections over hurdles, and hadn't raced on the flat since September 2012 when he was with Mick Quinn. He has also had breathing issues. However, he has dropped a long way from a peak mark of OR87 when with Sir Michael Stoute, to a mark of just OR58 which he proved he could be competitive off even in the latter stages of his 2012 campaign. He is ideally suited by ten furlongs and good to firm ground, and he ran much better than his finishing position suggests in a Newmarket handicap on his second start of the year in May. He travelled really well into the contest, and came to take the lead around two furlongs out before fading and eventually being beaten 13 1/2 lengths. It bore all the hallmarks of a horse who struggles with his breathing, but I think he can be given another chance here. He drops from a 0-75 into 0-60 company, and a bad 0-60 at that. Connections have declared him in a first time tongue tie and hood, presumably to help his breathing and keep him calm during the race. The stable's horses have been running quite well, and I like the fact that the horse has had a few weeks break since that last run, often a good thing with horses who have niggles like this one. He is likely to travel well into this contest, and after that it is a matter of what his physical condition allows him to find off the bridle. He comes here relatively fresh he might just get away with it against this class of horse. I thought 50/1 was a gross misprice: he isn't the likeliest winner, but I made him a 20/1 shot in this company and I'm happy to play at these prices given that we're getting 12/1+ on the place.
Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -51.90 / year: +272.00
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