4.30 Hamilton Baltic Prince 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 18/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, William Hill, guaranteed)
This is a risky bet, obviously, because Baltic Prince isn't a recognised sprinter and is stepping right back in trip this afternoon on ground he has never won on. However, the price certainly compensates and it isn't difficult to make a good case for him enjoying today's conditions and also being well handicapped. The selection ran really well for a long way here last time out over the extended mile, finishing an ultimately well beaten fifth behind I'm Super Too. However, he duelled for the lead for a long way with an improving mare of Mick Easterby's, Alluring Star. They cut each other's throats, and although Baltic Prince got the worst of the argument, that mare is in the form of her life, having recorded three victories in a row before that run. She has since finished second at Carlisle, and the eventual third Ellaal has won at Beverley. The winner, who is a Hamilton specialist, has since finished fourth at Pontefract and second in a competitive York handicap. The form looks very strong for the grade, and it does make Baltic Prince look an attractive proposition dropping into a very average 0-70 today. The selection has plenty of speed, enough so that he managed to cook Alluring Star's goose last time out and ruin her chances. That was only his second run of the season, and he is entitled to come on for it for a yard whose representatives have been out running their odds in many cases just lately. If he has the speed to grab the lead dropped to this trip, he might not come back to them: he has won at Carlisle and Beverley (both stiff finishes) and with no other bona fide front runner in this field, he might even get his own way out in front. Anything 16/1+ is too big and we'll play each-way and win.
Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -25.40 / year: +298.50
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