Wednesday 4th June 2014

Two races of interest today.

4.50 Nottingham

Lucky Jim 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Tactical Strike 3pts win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Nottingham has turned soft and I expect further rain to hit the racecourse before this race starts at 4.50pm. I think Lucky Jim will handle the ground and might be able to shed his maiden tag. The selection travelled really well on soft ground on his Newmarket debut behind some very good horses, fading quickly late on as though the run was well needed. He seems to have been difficult to train since then, and disappointed on seasonal debut when well fancied. However, his stable weren't in form at the time and I'm not inclined to blame the ground. The horse ran much better last time out on the all weather, when he did all his best work at the finish in a fair looking contest. His pedigree is packed with stamina on the dam's side and I would expect improvement for the step up to today's trip based on that, and visual evidence from his last run. Given that I think he is likely to handle the ground, and the stable are now in better form, he looks well worth backing. Seb Sanders shows up for the one ride which catches the eye.

Tactical Strike is a lazy, and typically ground-grabbing son of Pivotal who will relish these conditions, particularly if it turns into a slog. His trainer has had this contest in mind for him for a few weeks now, and he gets first time blinkers which he is said to have worked well in:

"I thought Tactical Strike ran really well to finish fourth at Nottingham. It just shows what a difference some urging from the saddle makes. He came off the bridle seven furlongs out and Noel (Garbutt) pushed and pushed and pushed and he was only beaten less than three lengths. He worked in blinkers this morning and he worked really well. He's no superstar but we felt after Nottingham that if he had travelled better earlier in the race he would have been in with a shout of perhaps troubling the winner a bit. He got too far back, off the bridle too soon, but the blinkers will help him travel a little bit sweeter early on. It's not that he doesn't try because he certainly did try putting his head out all the way so that's what we'll do and I think there's another race at Nottingham at the beginning of June." - Trainer Hugo Palmer on his blog, May 17th.

14/1 looks pretty big, and he is another who has plenty of stamina on the dam's side - his mother is related to Allegretto, who won a Group 1 and three Group 2 events over 15 to 16 Furlongs. Interestingly, she won in a first time visor.

6.30 Kempton Xinbama 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 13/2 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 6/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

The passing of John Hills at a young age last week understandably has many in racing in mourning, but although it will be apt if Xinbama can win tonight in the late trainer's fathers name, there are reasons other than sentiment to think the horse might have a strong chance of following up his Lingfield win. I find it interesting the tongue tie he often wore was discarded on his seasonal debut, and his riding tactics were changed. He was held up right in rear by Frankie Dettori and came with one sweeping win to do it quite easily in the end, at a track where those tactics haven't really been easy to pull off lately. I would suggest he may have had work done on his breathing, and it makes sense that he is sent here tonight around this tight 1m2f track. There is some potential pace in here, but the selection won't mind is this isn't truly run: he is something of a ten furlong specialist these days and has no problem winning in small fields. Crucial to his chances will be his position - he is drawn well in stall three to take a midfield sit on the rail, and I would hope Kieren Fallon will have been well briefed on the tactics Frankie Dettori pulled off to a nicety last time out. The jockey booking is interesting, and I think there might be more improvement from Xinbama as a five year old if kept to these conditions. There are quite a few "maybe" horses in here, and I can see a few of these not giving their running around this idiosyncratic tight inner track. If Xinbama can get a tow into the race on the rail and challenge only in the straight, I expect him to go close and I think it makes sense to back him each-way and win with the dead eight running given reservations about a few of the others.

Profit & loss: day: -7.40 / month: -19.40 / year: +304.50