Wednesday 23rd July 2014

A difficult day to find value, but we have one interest at Leicester. The weekend and of course next week will be much busier.

5.45 Leicester Sophie's Beau 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

Many of Michael Chapman's horses seem to pop up at prices unexpectedly, and Sophie's Beau seems to be no exception. After being bought out of a seller by current connections (having won that race at 9/2), the selection has registered three wins at odds of 9/1, 25/1 and 33/1. He isn't easy to predict, but can get the job done when the circumstances are right (unlike many of these) and I think he could be ready to strike today. Chapman's horses tend to get into little patches of good form like many smaller trainers, and a winner, second and third in the last ten days is enough to suggest the horses are in good health. Sophie's Beau tends to win in summer, and he hinted at a return to form last time out. He was held up last in a race where, although strongly run, it paid to race handily and he was noted passing horses in the closing stages to finish a creditable sixth. That was a much better race than this and it also came over a trip of ten furlongs that the horse was trying for the first time. He was very keen in the early stages and I would suggest it was the horse's current well being rather than the trip that led to the improvement on recent runs. Today's race is over seven furlongs, a trip he hasn't tried since 2011 when he was bang out of form. His wins have all come over sprint distances, but I think he has the right blend of speed and stamina to get it done over the seven and the step back to seven at a course he has won at in the past makes him of interest. The booking of Jenny Walton, one of the better and more experienced riders in this race, also catches the eye. At odds of 14/1, I'm happy to outlay modest stakes in the hope of a nice return on this unpredictable sort.

Profit & loss: day: +45.50 / month: +110.45 / year: +406.75

Tuesday 22nd July 2014

Bunce was a fairly easy winner for us yesterday and I felt we called the race quite well.

Average enough stuff today, and I'm really looking forward to next week at this point. We're in good form going into Glorious Goodwood and having a strong handle on the current form always helps.

One selection at Musselburgh.

3.30 Musselburgh Geanie Mac 5pts win @ 7/1 (Bet 365, Skybet, Bet Victor, Racebets, independents, guaranteed)

Another for the Linda Perratt / P.J. McDonald combination, which served us well yesterday. Perratt's yard are clearly in good form, and although Geanie Mac is 1/31 on all career starts, her attitude isn't too bad and she is quite consistent on good to firm ground. I don't think she is a strong stayer, so by rights an easy track should suit her well and it was only late on at Hamilton and Ayr that she gave best on her last two starts - both those tracks have notoriously stiff finishes. Her recent run behind Gold Chain looks solid enough with the winner finishing second in a hurdle race since, and although she had it run to suit it does illustrate how she likes a race to pan out for her. Hunting Ground looks almost certain to make the running here, and I would think Valantino Oyster and Vittachi could go on too, which will suit Geanie Mac well. Her jockey has been in the form of his life and he seems to be in that zone where his decision making with regard to where to put a horse seems to be spot on more often than not. This is a fairly simple hold up ride - the pace should be there and his horse has good tactical speed to take him close to the front. After that, the rest is down to the mare. She was unlucky not to beat Vittachi under this rider last year over course and distance when she was in front too soon (beaten a nose, 1lb worse off) but I think she's in better form now and can reverse with that rival (the ground is quicker today too which will suit her). All in all, I think anything around 13/2+ looks too big and should be taken.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +64.95 / year: +361.25

Monday 21st July 2014

Mercer's Row ran a blinder yesterday, racing on the wrong part of the track and only missing out on a place close home. I thought it was a fine run, and he can certainly pick up another handicap off his current mark soon. The favourite was unplaced, so it goes down as one of those annoying ones we called well but didn't get paid for.

Just one for today.

3.20 Ayr Bunce 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 11/1 Bet 365, Totesport, Betfred, William Hill, guaranteed) - WON

This is an interesting little contest despite the relatively small field. I think Imperial Legend is running into form and perhaps deserves to be favourite, having forced a strong pace at York last time and seeing it out well. However, I'm not so sure how he's going to be ridden here and it puts me right off him. If he races on the pace again, he has a stiff Ayr finish to contend with on rain softened ground, and will most likely be taken on by Taurus Twins. That horse won almost certainly because of a draw bias at Nottingham the other day, and I think he is too high in the weights to be winning again despite the presence of a good 7lb claimer. He could act as a spoiler. If Imperial Legend is held up, he might run into trouble from stall 1 and as a result I'd be keen to take him on. Gowanharry has good form in the book but has been off for 44 days, and is another who tends to race prominently. With this in mind I'm inclined to take a chance on Bunce, on an each-way and win basis. His record this season over the minimum on ground with soft in the description reads 2,2,1 and his course and distance second behind Classy Anne (who won her next two starts) really caught my eye. He pulled well clear of the rest and finished the race strongly. Today's contest is a class 4 race, but if he is going to step up to this level it will be today, given a strong pace to run at and ideal trip / ground. He makes plenty of appeal at 11/1+ and may be backed in on course.

Profit & loss: day: +48.40 / month: +69.95 / year: +366.25

Sunday 20th July 2014

We had a bit of a reverse last night with Kleitomachos failing to give his running. He was weak in the market beforehand which could suggest he wasn't right, or wasn't ready after his break.

One really interesting race at Redcar today.

4.10 Redcar

Mercer's Row 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, guaranteed)

Adiator 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 22/1 Coral, guaranteed)

It never ceases to amaze me how often sprints races, and in particular sprint handicaps, are priced up with potential as the most important variable in determining a horse's chance. "Sexy", unexposed horses are routinely priced at the head of the market, are often well backed, and often bomb out completely. The reason is that sprinting is a fine art, and most handicappers will have a very particular set of circumstances that allow them to perform to the best of their abilities. Duke Cosimo is our sexy unexposed sprinter today: he is a half brother to Duke Of Firenze who is lightly raced and open to improvement. However, he is best priced 9/2 in a good field today and is well worth taking on. He hasn't run in 64 days which isn't a good sign for a sprinter midseason. He is in second time blinkers, and it's anyone's guess if they'll be as effective this time around. And more importantly, he won a solidly run Doncaster handicap last time out. Doncaster is a track which often favours hold up performers because jockeys frequently slightly misjudge the pace. Donny takes some getting and tends to suit those who stay on when those who have raced prominently have cried enough. Redcar doesn't favour hold up types quite as much and the lack of any out and out speedsters in this contest could make it difficult for Duke Cosimo today.

A number of these look quite exposed, and there might not be much in it from a handicapping point of view. I'm inclined to look for something that could have something in hand at the weights, and might be suited by the way this is likely to be run. 

Mercer's Row is interesting, particularly with Joe Fanning taking over from Gemma Tutty. Karen Tutty's yard are probably having their best ever season, and the fairly average bunch of handicappers she trains are regularly exceeding market expectations. The selection is off his highest mark since 2012 today, and he has never won in this class, but he seems to be in the form of his life in common with many from the stable. He is a course and distance winner and the ground will be perfect for him after yesterday's rain. He has been seen racing over further recently, but looks a very adaptable type and is a strong traveller who does not lack for gears. I would expect Joe Fanning to ride him prominently and I find him especially interesting given that he is not reliant on a strong pace. His last run at Beverley is best ignored (was caught very wide) and odds of 33/1 look a bit insulting to me.

Adiator is a real dark horse. She needs a little bit of juice in the ground to be at her best, and she should be fine in that regard today. Her form figures at Redcar read 2,2,1 and she is another course and distance winner. Again, she tends to race prominently and is not reliant on front runners coming back to her - crucial in a race not overloaded with speed. The form of her course and distance maiden win is really interesting. The runner up, who was Evens favourite, is now rated OR97 having won his next two starts. The third won impressively next time out and is now rated OR95. The fourth hasn't run since, but the fifth rattled up a hat trick on his next three starts and is now rated OR88. Adiator runs here off OR66 and although she may simply not have progressed as those rivals have, she did win on her seasonal debut and has had excuses since. Andrew Mullen replaces an apprentice here, and I like the jockey booking. He is best with horses who require a no nonsense, get on with it type of ride and Adiator is just that sort of horse. Anything 20/1+ is too big.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +21.55 / year: +317.85

Saturday 19th July 2014

A very difficult day for betting purposes, with the ground something of an unknown in many cases due to changeable weather conditions. We have two interests.

5.25 Ripon Khelfan 4pts win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed) - N/R

There are many unknowns attached to this bet, which explains a win only policy despite the price, and the staking a point shorter than our median stake of five. The rain is coming down at Ripon, but the ground may just hold out enough that good / good to soft going will prevail by the off time for this race. In that case, I give Khelfan a chance. Again it is hard to be dogmatic about what conditions she will be best under, but her action suggests she won't want extremes and there is a chance she'll be best on the all weather. Her run at Lingfield last month makes her look potentially well handicapped here off OR53. She stayed on very well over the minimum, not asked too many questions in the closing stages and eventually reported to be lame. It looked like a bit of a handicap set up run and I think connections will be well pleased with the mark. Nathan Allison is booked to claim five off her today and this maiden handicap looks a neat piece of placement. I think she'll start to pick up races soon: whether it is today or not is probably in the lap of the gods. 12/1 is too big and 4pts win looks the call.

7.00 Haydock Kleitomachos 3pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 6/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Haydock has taken a right hammering and is forecast to continue to do so throughout the day. Conditions could be very testing by the time this race takes place. That should bring the soft ground specialists into it, and Kleitomachos looks a model to pick up a third career win in that case. The selection has won twice on soft and heavy ground, but has obviously been difficult to train given that he only saw the racecourse once between late 2012 and 2014. His recent Nottingham third on unsuitably quick ground looks strong in the context of today's race, and I would suggest there is room to manoeuvre off his current mark of OR77. I think he holds an excellent chance of winning and will probably be in the three, as a result we'll have a decent each-way and win bet and the current 6/1 which may well shorten.

Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: +27.55 / year: +323.85

Friday 18th July 2014

Flying Bear was a game winner under Ryan Moore earlier.

One for this evening.

7.40 Hamilton Fast shot 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed) - N/R

Fast Shot was second in this race last year, only just denied having struggled to get a clear run in the final stages. He is 9lb higher this year, but has been in the form of his life in 2014 and I think he has a major chance of winning this at the third attempt (beaten 3+ lengths on unsuitable heavy ground in 2012). The selection has struck up a really good partnership with Rachel Richardson, who claims 7lb and knows the horse very well. He won a pair of Ripon handicaps in decent style early this season, before running very well into fourth in a hot York handicap on his penultimate run. His Ascot run when drawn 3 in the Wokingham can safely be ignored (never any chance on the far side). The return to a track he likes on ground which should be perfect for him can spark a return to form here. I think 20/1+ really underestimates his chances and we'll have a decent each-way and win bet.

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Afternoon Bets:

Adelasia won well for us last night, and we continue in good form. She could be an OR95+ type, but the rest of the field look less talented.

Two selections for this afternoon - we may have evening bets which will be sent before 5.45pm.

4.15 Newbury Flying Bear 5pts win @ 11/4 (Generally) - WON

An interesting little sprint handicap. Despite looking quirky, there is just enough potential in Flying Bear to recommend him at 11/4. The selection can blow his chance at the start, as he did at Epsom last time, but I don't think that track suited him - he didn't corner well at all and struggled to get momentum going early on. His jockey was very easy on him in the closing stages. Newbury's more conventional track will suit better this afternoon. There is some pace in this contest, With the likes of Ask The Guru, Edged Out and Swendad all inclined to go forward and get on with it. Flying Bear's Goodwood run on his penultimate start is what convinces me here: he took a keen hold of the bridle for the first three furlongs of the contest, and I'm not surprised connections drop him back to the minimum today. This race should set up for him much better, and although he is a three year old in all aged company, I have always had him down as a potential improver and with a few races behind him and a top jockey booked, today is the ideal time for him to start winning. Anything around 11/4 looks decent value and he may drift on course, so as always take a guaranteed price.

5.05 Nottingham Tony Hollis 5pts win @ 10/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)

A mile on fast ground is what Tony Hollis wants to be seen at his best, and on that basis I'm happy to forgive his last run at Musselburgh, where the ground went completely against him. That was his second start for Michael Appleby, his first coming at Southwell which I don't think suits him. Appleby excels at improving these honest, one paced gallopers and I have no doubt his training methods will improve the conditioning of this horse. He competes here off a basement mark of OR47, and the company he's keeping isn't that hot. Appleby usually has no problem improving horses with this profile by about a stone, and with ideal conditions and a nice price being offered today, I think he is well worth backing.

Profit & loss: day: +8.75 / month: +35.55 / year: +331.85

Thursday 17th July 2014

One selection for this evening.

7.00 Doncaster Adelasia 5pts win @ 5/1 (William Hill. guaranteed, 9/2 generally guaranteed) - WON

A really interesting fillies maiden. Most of these I wasn't keen on, including the favourite Lashkaal who looked a little laboured on debut. However, I thought Adelasia got the message late on her debut over this course and distance, and she might be able to improve enough this evening. She was held up in rear and appeared to be very green first time out, looking around her and unsure how to use her stride. Her jockey had all but given up when she picked up late, and she appeared to learn how to pass horses, which is the crucial part of any juvenile's debut, as the line approached. I was unsure whether there was a bit of temperament there: she threw her head around after the line and I can't be sure if she wanted to go further or was simply being a bit of a madam. I'm going to give her the benefit of the doubt, because she is a really good actioned filly and a superb mover on this fast ground. If she has learned to put it all together, she should take a bit of beating, and at the prices she makes much more appeal than the favourite. Charlie Appleby's stable are no in very good form and there is no reason she shouldn't improve a stone and upwards from that debut.

Profit & loss: day: +22.50 / month: +25.80 / year: +323.10

Wednesday 16th July 2014

Some fair racing today, but just one selection of interest for us.

4.10 Lingfield Orlando Star 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 40/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Bet Victor, William Hill, guaranteed)

Those of you who are long term clients of ours will know that we're comfortable backing horses at pretty much any price from Evens to 100/1+ once the selection is underestimated in the market and represents value in the context of the race. That was the case on Monday when 11/4fav Dark Angel won handily, and it's also the case today with Orlando Star. I make him somewhere around 14/1 or 16/1 on my tissue here, so I'm very happy to get involved at 40/1 or better - indeed anything 28/1+ is very good value. The selections represents a trainer who gets some good all weather horses - Jack Of Diamonds, Highly Regal, Tiger's Tale and The Tichborne would spring to mind from recent years - and he is bred to make a decent sprinter on artificial surfaces. His best career effort came in his two year old season, over this course and distance when he posted an RPR of 69, finishing fourth in a decent maiden behind Tea Leaf. He has fallen in the handicap since he was first given a mark of OR70, and competes off OR57 today, which makes him look fairly handicapped even based on the RPR of 54 he posted at Kempton when he looked unfit on seasonal debut. 

The crucial thing here is Orlando Star's two recent runs. He improved for the fitting of a first time visor at Brighton on his penultimate run, and despite looking uncomfortable and changing his legs down the hill, he posted an RPR of 58 which signalled a return to something like form. He followed that up with a lesser effort on the figures last time out, but that was over seven furlongs at Brighton and again he looked uncomfortable on the track. He showed plenty of speed to lead a much deeper field than this in a class 5 event, and the fourth has since finished second in a class 5 at Thirsk, while the horse who missed the break and finished last has since won. You'd have to think Orlando Star will be suited by the return to polytrack, and the horses in here just don't look much good: while Kodafine is dependable, she is limited, and Lead A Merry Dance doesn't look certain to put it all together on handicap debut given that she has no polytrack experience. Monashka Bay beat nothing when she won over course and distance, Mimi Luke is very moderate, Risk N Reward was around 100/1 on Betfair and clearly not expected when withdrawn having bolted at Kempton last time. This race is there for the taking, and the only realy negative that comes to mind is that there is potentially some pace on, and Orlando Star could end up wide from his stall 10 draw. His claimer Danny Brock is worth his 5lb, though, and gave an aggressive front running ride to a 50/1 apparent no hoper here the other day over seven furlongs, the horse finishing second. This is the type of bet that could go horribly wrong, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the selection win comfortably either. At the prices, it is a risk worth taking for a potentially lucrative reward.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +3.30 / year: +300.60

Tuesday 15th July 2014

Dark Crystal was a comfortable winner yesterday - perhaps better than the winning margin of a neck. We're in good form right now.

Two for today.

2.00 Beverley Zipedeedodah 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Paddy Power, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed) 

Represents a stable who had a couple of speedy two year olds last year, and this one is very precociously bred. He was better than his finishing position at Windsor last time suggests: the colt was very speedy from the gates, and took a fair grip under Oisin Murphy (who was an interesting booking), travelling well in what was a decent looking Windsor maiden. He stayed in the middle of the track and eventually faded, but that was on fairly soft ground over six furlongs. Today's ground will probably end up at least good, with no rain forecast and a hot enough day at Beverley. The selection isn't drawn that well but his speed from the stalls will be a big asset against inexperienced two year olds, and if he comes on for his first run in terms of fitness and mental experience, he shouldn't be far away. Morning odds of 25/1 underestimate his chance significantly enough to warrant a moderate each-way and win bet.

2.15 Bath Fair Comment 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 5/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 9/2 generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

Fair comment is now 0-27 on her career, but she hasn't had many chances over middle distances on fast ground, and to date she has been quite consistent under such conditions having eventually been stepped up in trip. Her fourth placed finish last time out was perhaps her best yet, giving weight away to the three 3yos who finished ahead of her. The third has franked the form by winning easily since, and I quite fancy Fair Comment to run the favourite Captain Oats very close today. She is 2lb higher in the handicap this afternoon, but I think this race is perfect for her: she travelled well last time over 1m5f, and the step back in trip by 1 1/2 furlongs should be perfect for her. There is a chance she may not be resolute in a finish, but with the dead eight lining up and some poor sorts in the line up, she makes plenty of each-way appeal.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +8.30 / year: +305.60

Monday 14th July 2014

Just one selection for Monday.

3.00 Ayr Dark Crystal 6pts win @ 5/2 (Generally guaranteed) - WON @ 11/4

Backing a three year old filly against her elders is not something I'd often do at a shortish price, but Dark Crystal's penultimate run over course and distance saw her record an impressive victory. She is unpenalised for that apprentice race success and I think she can show herself to be an improving filly by winning again this afternoon. Her run at Hamilton over a trip too sharp for her was just fine, but the return to this track is the key. She was very strong at the finish on her last visit here, and crucially she handles soft ground well - she won at Redcar as a two year old over this trip on soft ground. Most of her rivals here are exposed, and with Joe Fanning in the plate I think she represents really good value now the rain has come. She may even drift on course, so be sure to take a guaranteed price as usual.

Profit & loss: day: +16.50 / month: +12.30 / year: +309.60

Saturday 12th July 2014

A fantastic Saturday of action ahead, and despite the accusations of too many quality cards on the one day being well founded, it does mean we have plenty of choice. It's a busy day for us.

1.55 Ascot

Barnet Fair 3pts win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Milly's Gift 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, Coral, guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

It's not often I say this, but Barnet Fair got a very "unusual" ride last time out at Newcastle, and I'm thinking connections had one eye on this race already. The selection is down to a mark of OR90 and has a good draw based on the last Ascot meeting and last year's race. It is a long time now since Dandy Nicholls was the Sprint King, but longer term clients will remember us backing Joseph Henry (33/1) and Evens And Odds (25/1) when they won the Steward's Cup consolation race and Steward's Cup respectively on consecutive days in 2010. David Probert (who had recently lost his claim) and Billy Cray (claiming 5lb) rode those horses and the policy of using the best talented young pilots in sprints is something Nicholls continues to employ. The excellent Cam Hardie rides here, and he is really good value for his 5lb. The selection should get a tow into this from Demora and Masamah, and everything looks set for a big run.

Milly's Gift is ridden by another good claimer, Ryan Tate (3lb). She looked a big improver when winning handily at Sandown last time out, and although she isn't drawn as well, there is a chance a group could develop up the centre of the track and she looks the best of those is that does happen. A 4lb rise for the Sandown win looks very fair, and the stable's horses are flying (two winners here yesterday).

55TH JOHN SMITH´S CUP (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 1m2f88y

Selection: Red Avenger 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Bet Victor, guaranteed)

Red Avenger still looks well handicapped based on his Epsom form behind Abseil. He ran 8lb above his mark that day, but is unchanged since after a run in the Hunt Cup which didn't pan out well for him. He seems best suited by left handed turning tracks, and this race looks tailor made for him. Connor Beasley is robbery for his 3lb claim, and he is an interesting booking by Ed Dunlop, who might have used a bigger name jockey if the fixture list wasn't so clustered. Not many of these look well handicapped and guaranteed to enjoy conditions (whether ground or trip), and I think Red Avenger looks the bet of the day at anything around 12/1+.

DARLEY JULY CUP (BRITISH CHAMPIONS SERIES AND GLOBAL SPRINT CHALLENGE) (GROUP 1) 6f

Selections:

Jack Dexter 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed - get 1/4 odds 1-2-3)

Aljamaaheer 3pts win @ 11/1 (Generally guaranteed)

I don't think, on measure, that this race will turn into a draw farce. Deeds Not Words ploughed a lone furrow down the centre of the track yesterday and won handily, and I think it is more of a case of horses losing ground by tacking across that has suggestions of a draw bias being talked of. Many of the good horses, including Slade Power, are drawn high here and I expect the winner to come from this group. Jack Dexter revels in soft ground over six furlongs, and with Jim Goldie's stable in good form he looks the value against the favourite based on his close second to that rival in a soft ground Group 2 at Ascot last October. There isn't much between them and if the favourite underperforms for any reason, the selection's form gives him a winning chance.

Aljamaaheer was usually pulled out in the case of the ground turning soft, but I've long thought he displays a bit of knee action and I find it interesting he is left in today. Connections have presumably noted how well he ran on his seasonal debut on the Rowley course. The ground was officially described as Good that day, but there was rain around and I've little doubt it had gotten into the ground based on the times and the hoofprints the horses left behind them. The selection got very close to Hamza (who was laid out for the race) without being given a hard time, and if he can replicate that type of run today he has every chance. His Ascot form is strong and he should be able to get closer to Slade Power in these conditions. We're very much playing against the market here (he has been written off based on the ground) but at the prices he looks a must bet to me - he is no 11/1 shot.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -4.20 / year: +293.10

Friday 11th July 2014

Two selections for this afternoon. Possible evening bets will follow: details either way before 5.30pm.

1.40 Newmarket Nakuti 5pts win @ 6/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

Not many of these fillies will handle the ground, and I'm inclined to take on the likes of Free Rein and Hot Coffee on that basis (I'm not sure Hot Coffee exactly revelled in the soft conditions at Haydock despite her finishing position). Nakuti is a strong, galloping type of filly who handles the conditions and is probably best at seven furlongs. She has improved this season, but seems to have very particular conditions under which she excels: Goodwood didn't seem to suit her, and I think the needs a no nonsense, galloping track. She is best forgiven her Ascot run in the Sandringham, and this level looks much more suitable, particularly as she can run off her proper handicap mark again (the mark looks fair). Ryan Moore has jocked Martin Harley off, and having the best in the business on board is a boon.

3.15 Newmarket Divine 1pt each-way AND 3pts win @ 18/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)

Divine may or may not be well drawn, but unlike many of these she appears to be generally progressive. The form of her win over Red Pike was franked when that rival won next time out, and her close second to Stepping Out has also worked out, with that filly winning again at Pontefract. Divine handles soft ground, and looks the sort of horse that could be travelling all over these in the final couple of furlongs once she gets some pace to run at. Not many of her rivals will handle conditions, and for a filly who has had just five career starts, I'm happy to forgive her last run over an unsuitable trip at Ayr on ground plenty quick enough for her.

Profit & loss: day: +25.00 / month: +6.80 / year: +304.10

Thursday 10th July 2014

Day one of the July festival today, and we have one race of interest.

We may have evening bets, an e-mail will follow with details before 5.30pm.

2.10 Newmarket Portland Place Properties July Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f

Selections:

Muhaarar 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 / 14/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Ladbrokes, all 1/4 1-2-3 guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

Ustinov 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Ladbrokes, all 1/4 1-2-3 guaranteed)

Dougal 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 28/1 / 25/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Ladbrokes, all 1/4 1-2-3 guaranteed)

Those of you who are new to us will probably see this as an unusual piece of staking, backing three horses in one race each-way and win. However, I feel we have a decent edge here both in getting 1/4 odds in a Group race and I can see a potential shock here. The reason is the rain that has fallen at Newmarket. It has been coming down heavily all morning, and although the ground has been changed to Good To Firm / Good In Places many at the track have said that further changes are likely. I think it could go soft and that brings stamina and ability to act in the conditions into play - the market hasn't reacted to this yet and I think the likes of Ivawood, The Great War, Jungle Cat and Mubtaghaa could be inconvenienced. As a result I'm backing two horses who are proven on the ground, and one whose stamina laden pedigree should ensure he gets home better than most.

Muhaarar hasn't been seen since winning at Doncaster on his debut, but that was on soft ground and his action suggests he will revel in today's conditions. He has to improve, but he was sent off odds on for the Doncaster race and is clearly thought to be useful. His owner was responsible for last year's winner and although this horse carries his second colours, I think he is more likely to handle the ground.

Dougal is the Richard Hannon Jnr. number two also, but his ability to act in this ground gives him an edge here. He might also be well drawn in stall 12 given this particular stalls alignment, and his form with Justice Good has worked out and gives him every chance. He didn't go to Ascot having scoped badly, but his trainer doesn't send horses here unless he thinks they can win and 25/1+ underestimates his chances.

Ustinov has it to find on the book, but he is by a Hernando mare and should see out the distance no problem. He has a real good ground action, and as such wouldn't be guaranteed to act on a bog if it rides that way, but if it's somewhere around good to soft in places, his run style and stamina might be suited to the race.

Profit & loss: day: -4.50 / month: -18.20 / year: +279.10

Wednesday 9th July 2014

Two selections for this afternoon. Evening bets may follow.

1pt each-way double on today's selections, 9/1 and 5/1 generally guaranteed.

3.50 Lingfield Double Dealites 1pt each-way AND 3pts win @ 9/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Represents a yard who traditionally do very well with staying fillies, although it has been a while since they've had one. Horses like Lady Dedlock, Sweetheart, Trigger's Friend and this horse's half sister Linden Lime (also an all weather winner) are good examples and the yard excel with this type of horse. It is fairly obvious she has been handicapped for a flat campaign on her last three starts, and she returns to a track where she won an all weather bumper earlier this year. Neil Callan, who has a 17% strike rate at this track, takes this as his first ride after a successful season in Hong Kong, and I think she could be a bit better than these moderate stayers. An opening mark of OR59 has given her this 0-60 option and top weight shouldn't be a problem. The market seems to have forgotten this trainer's prowess with horses of this type and I'm quite surprised 9/1 is available. We will back each-way and win and include in an each-way double.

4.10 Yarmouth Don't Stare 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Don't Stare has to prove he can get the job done in handicaps, but he has been better than the bare result on his last two starts in strong looking races. He sat handy on a strong pace at Kempton last time out in a quality race, and only tied into fourth late on. I think a more patient ride will suit him, and today's race looks tailor made for him. The stable's horses go well at Yarmouth and the selection acted really well here on fast turf on his debut, when he finished really well at a price which suggested he was far from the finished article. 5/1 looks too big and I think he can take the scalp of Enobled, who never looked like winning last time and doesn't look like one of Sir Michael Stoute's stable stars, and Genius Boy who is looking a touch high in the weights now.

Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: -13.70 / year: +284.60

Sunday 6th July 2014

One selection for Sunday.

5.00 Ayr Two Turtle Doves 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 18/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)

This apprentice contest is one I usually have a bet in, and regulars will remember we backed Foreign Rhythm to win last year. I'm not sure what attracts me to the race, but sprint handicaps are my favourite type of race to bet in and it is something different amongst the generally poor Sunday fare in England. It interests me Mick Mullineaux sends Two Turtle Doves to contest the race. She hadn't shown much this year, but she is a mare who comes to hand in summer and her run last time out at Leicester marked a return to form in my view. The figures don't show it, but she ran right to the line against some classier sprinters and, although she received plenty of weight, I felt she was better than the bare result. Her rider also dropped her whip around a furlong out. She is turned out relatively quickly, just ten days later, and this marks a change in her recent patterns of running around once a month. I would suggest connections have targeted the race and perhaps trained the mare for it. She has plenty of winning form over a straight five furlongs, including with a stiff finish. She ought to get a good tow into this race from Chloe's Dream who is next door in stall nine, and she is able to race off a mark 3lbs lower today than at Leicester. 16/1+ is too big.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -1.70 / year: +296.60

Saturday 5th July 2014

A cracking day of racing, and we have interests in two races at Sandown.

2.40 Sandown

Gabrial's Kaka 3pts win @ 9/1 (Bet 365, Paddy Power, Stan James, Betpack.com)

St. Moritz 3pts win @ 12/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

This is a really strong looking handicap, and despite the moderate field size a decent pace looks on the cards. I like backing recent handicap winners in this contest, and as a result I've sided with Gabrial's Kaka and St. Moritz. The former was impressive in winning the Spring Cup, and he represents an in form stable. He could still be unexposed and is easily excused his most recent run. Frankie Dettori is a positive booking. St. Moritz ran really well here last time out and looked to enjoy the switchback track. Oisin Murphy is booked and his 3lb claim could be the deciding factor, given that he has been put up 2lbs by the handicapper for that run. Anything in double figures is too big a price.

3:50 Sandown Coral-Eclipse (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f7y

Selection: Verrazano 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 8/1 (Bet 365, Sporting Bet, Coral, 15/2 Bet Victor)

I can pick negatives in the form of all the three year olds here, and as a result I make this between The Fugue and Verrazano. The selection has to be the latter at the prices, particularly given The Fugue's poor run in this last year (although she had excuses) and the poor record of fillies in this contest. There was no shame in the selection finishing second to Toronado last time out, and he looked for all the world as if a step up in trip would suit. Joseph O'Brien was really kind on him in the closing stages, and connections can reap the benefits of that tender handling this afternoon. Ryan Moore is peerless around here in my view, and his booking is the icing on the cake. We'll have a decent each-way and win stake.

Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: +3.30 / year: +301.60

Friday 4th July 2014

Just one selection for today.

4.20 Warwick River Spirit 3pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 7/1 (Bet 365, Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

The season's first nursery. Don Sigfredo has been heavily backed for this, but he has had trouble breaking from the stalls on more than one occasion, and if he is tardy from the gates Warwick's sharp track might not forgive him. Lady Zodiac has attracted support too, but she looks fairly moderate and although she seems to have been laid out for the race, it takes a leap of faith to support her from stall ten. Many of the others look moderate, and I'd have this between Foxtrot Night and River Spirit. Foxtrot Night is 3/1 and looks very defensively priced. He didn't look the speediest five furlong horse last time out either, and although his chance is there for all to see River Spirit makes much more appeal at 7/1. She won very well at Lingfield on her penultimate start, and seems to enjoy a flat five furlongs on quick ground, which she should get today (Warwick looks like missing the rain). She has disappointed on all three visits to Bath's undulating track and is easily forgiven her last run in a better race on that basis. Her attitude and ability to put it all together over five furlongs both impressed at Lingfield, and I think there is some improvement to come. 7/1 is too big and we'll play each-way and win to a decent stake.

Profit & loss: day: -1.20 / month: +15.30 / year: +313.60

Thursday 3rd July 2014

Expert Fighter was a nice winner for us last night, Kieren Fallon's ride was superb.

Just one for today.

4.50 Haydock Amethyst Dawn 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfair Sportsbook, guaranteed)

Many of these fillies struggle to put it all together and actually win, and although there are a few dark horses in here I can't see anything that is certain to improve for the race conditions and improve here. There seems to be very little in the way of pace, and a few are wearing hoods and tend to take a keen hold - you don't want that type of horse sitting handy in a slowly run contest. It is interesting to see Amethyst Dawn reunited with David Allan here. The selection has done the rounds of different yards, but is back with her original handler now and showed up quite well in a Hamilton sprint the other day, over six furlongs and isolated on the wrong part of the track. She can be expected to improve for that, her first run since January, and it is unusual to see her racing at all. My guess is they had considered retiring her, but she might still show enthusiasm in her home work and connections may have been tempted by what is a very fair looking handicap mark. Allan has made all on this filly before, and if she can get to the front early on, I think the others might find her too tough to pass. She has won nine times, and this sharp mile (actual distance 7f 215yds) will suit her perfectly. The ground might be a bit quick for her, but she has never been dependent on the ground and I don't think it will stop her giving her running. If she gets a well judged front running ride, she might be too good for these off her current mark.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +16.50 / year: +314.80

Wednesday 2nd July 2014

Two races of interest for this evening.

1pt each-way double on today's selections, 10/1 and 9/2 generally guaranteed.

6.20 Kempton Honey Meadow 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Ran well in the race won by More Beau at Redcar recently, and followed that up with another fair run over seven furlongs at Newbury last time out. Both times she was left stranded away from where the action was taking place, and I think she is worth another chance back on polytrack off much more favourable terms tonight. Unlike the favourite she is proven on the surface, and the form of her Wolverhampton win last winter looks strong in retrospect. Neither the favourite or second favourite appear to be the easiest to train looking at how often they make it to the track, and from wide stalls I'm happy to take them on. Honey Meadow travels strongly and should get a nice tow into this from stall six. 10/1 underestimates her chances. We'll also include her in an each-way double with our second selection.

8.50 Kempton Expert Fighter 5pts win @ 9/2 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

There isn't much pace on here, and as a result I don't think he big weight Expert fighter has to carry will bother him too much. I expect him to sit relatively handy and travel well, before being sent for home around the home turn by Kieren Fallon. I'm not sure Aldborough is a polytrack horse and I'd say connections are chancing him here due to the lack of soft turf around at the moment. Nothing stands out as particularly well handicapped, and Expert Fighter's five runs on this surface have all produced very strong ratings. I think there is a bit of improvement off this mark yet, and this looks a good piece of placement. 9/2 is very fair.

Profit & loss: day: +22.50 / month: +22.50 / year: +320.80

Monday 30th June 2014

Just one for today.

3.45 Southwell Midaz 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)

Trainer Hughie Morrison maintains a 26% strike rate in claiming races, and given how well he does at Southwell his representative Midaz looks to be of interest at a price in the seven furlong event this afternoon. The selection showed a little bit of promise here on his second career start, but his two runs here in April suggest he handles the surface very well. There was no disgrace in being beaten by Mishrif, who goes very well at Southwell, or indeed Pretty Bubbles who has improved and won again since. He might not have seen out a mile on either occasion and the drop back to seven makes him interesting here. The booking of Charlie Bennett to lighten his load from 9-12 to 9-7 looks clever enough, and although he would be better off with a few of these in a handicap, he remains open to improvement and not all of the opposition look certain to give their running on this surface.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -27.60 / year: +298.30

Saturday 28th June 2014

Two selections for today.

4.15 Curragh Barkston Ash 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Paddy Power, 10/1 Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Ladbrokes - all pay 5 places)

I'd be fairly keen to be on a high drawn horse here, and I've come down on the side of Barkston Ash, who seems to have been put away for this race since his Haydock run at the end of May. The selection is in the form of his life, and still seems to be improving at the age of six. He is drawn well, and has plenty of winning form at Hamilton, which would suggest the Curragh's stiff finish will hold no fears. His last two runs lead me to believe there is some improvement still to come, and I think he represents a bit of value at a double figure price with five places paid.

8.45 Doncaster Coillte Cailin 5pts win @ 5/1 (Skybet, Totesport, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Betfred, independents, guaranteed)

Coillte Cailin represents a stable which seems to be hitting form, and this looks her best chance yet of getting off the mark. Her Haydock run over ten furlongs on good ground looks the best form on offer here, and she looks well treated off OR67, 2lbs higher than for that run. She is perhaps best forgiven her Nottingham run on ground that may not have suited, and good ground and Doncaster's stiff finish will suit her run style in my view. A good 5lb claimer is booked, and if he can hold her up for a late challenge, I think she has the beating of this lowly enough opposition. 5/1 is too big.

One extra selection for today:

4.05 Newmarket Penny Drops 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes, Bet Victor, Totesport, Betfred, Betfair Sportsbook) - E/W 2nd

Newmarket has been hit with heavy rain, replete with thunder and lightning, in the last few minutes and satellite pictures suggests it will continue for a while yet. Rain softened ground brings Penny Drops right into the equation. This daughter of Invincible Spirit has some good soft ground form, including her recent second at Goodwood behind Wee Jean, which has worked out quite well. She didn't handle Epsom's undulations or quick ground last time out, and is probably worth another chance today. Her stable went through a quiet spell recently (by their own high standards) but have been absolutely banging in the winners in the last ten days. They have taken the trouble to but Frankie Dettori for the ride, and the double figure odds now look like excellent value with conditions coming in her favour.

Profit & loss: day: -10.20 / month: -21.60 / year: +302.30