One for this evening.
7.40 Hamilton Fast shot 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed) - N/R
Fast Shot was second in this race last year, only just denied having struggled to get a clear run in the final stages. He is 9lb higher this year, but has been in the form of his life in 2014 and I think he has a major chance of winning this at the third attempt (beaten 3+ lengths on unsuitable heavy ground in 2012). The selection has struck up a really good partnership with Rachel Richardson, who claims 7lb and knows the horse very well. He won a pair of Ripon handicaps in decent style early this season, before running very well into fourth in a hot York handicap on his penultimate run. His Ascot run when drawn 3 in the Wokingham can safely be ignored (never any chance on the far side). The return to a track he likes on ground which should be perfect for him can spark a return to form here. I think 20/1+ really underestimates his chances and we'll have a decent each-way and win bet.
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Afternoon Bets:
Adelasia won well for us last night, and we continue in good form. She could be an OR95+ type, but the rest of the field look less talented.
Two selections for this afternoon - we may have evening bets which will be sent before 5.45pm.
4.15 Newbury Flying Bear 5pts win @ 11/4 (Generally) - WON
An interesting little sprint handicap. Despite looking quirky, there is just enough potential in Flying Bear to recommend him at 11/4. The selection can blow his chance at the start, as he did at Epsom last time, but I don't think that track suited him - he didn't corner well at all and struggled to get momentum going early on. His jockey was very easy on him in the closing stages. Newbury's more conventional track will suit better this afternoon. There is some pace in this contest, With the likes of Ask The Guru, Edged Out and Swendad all inclined to go forward and get on with it. Flying Bear's Goodwood run on his penultimate start is what convinces me here: he took a keen hold of the bridle for the first three furlongs of the contest, and I'm not surprised connections drop him back to the minimum today. This race should set up for him much better, and although he is a three year old in all aged company, I have always had him down as a potential improver and with a few races behind him and a top jockey booked, today is the ideal time for him to start winning. Anything around 11/4 looks decent value and he may drift on course, so as always take a guaranteed price.
5.05 Nottingham Tony Hollis 5pts win @ 10/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)
A mile on fast ground is what Tony Hollis wants to be seen at his best, and on that basis I'm happy to forgive his last run at Musselburgh, where the ground went completely against him. That was his second start for Michael Appleby, his first coming at Southwell which I don't think suits him. Appleby excels at improving these honest, one paced gallopers and I have no doubt his training methods will improve the conditioning of this horse. He competes here off a basement mark of OR47, and the company he's keeping isn't that hot. Appleby usually has no problem improving horses with this profile by about a stone, and with ideal conditions and a nice price being offered today, I think he is well worth backing.
Profit & loss: day: +8.75 / month: +35.55 / year: +331.85
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