4.20 Warwick River Spirit 3pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 7/1 (Bet 365, Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd
The season's first nursery. Don Sigfredo has been heavily backed for this, but he has had trouble breaking from the stalls on more than one occasion, and if he is tardy from the gates Warwick's sharp track might not forgive him. Lady Zodiac has attracted support too, but she looks fairly moderate and although she seems to have been laid out for the race, it takes a leap of faith to support her from stall ten. Many of the others look moderate, and I'd have this between Foxtrot Night and River Spirit. Foxtrot Night is 3/1 and looks very defensively priced. He didn't look the speediest five furlong horse last time out either, and although his chance is there for all to see River Spirit makes much more appeal at 7/1. She won very well at Lingfield on her penultimate start, and seems to enjoy a flat five furlongs on quick ground, which she should get today (Warwick looks like missing the rain). She has disappointed on all three visits to Bath's undulating track and is easily forgiven her last run in a better race on that basis. Her attitude and ability to put it all together over five furlongs both impressed at Lingfield, and I think there is some improvement to come. 7/1 is too big and we'll play each-way and win to a decent stake.
Profit & loss: day: -1.20 / month: +15.30 / year: +313.60
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