Saturday 12th July 2014

A fantastic Saturday of action ahead, and despite the accusations of too many quality cards on the one day being well founded, it does mean we have plenty of choice. It's a busy day for us.

1.55 Ascot

Barnet Fair 3pts win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Milly's Gift 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, Coral, guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

It's not often I say this, but Barnet Fair got a very "unusual" ride last time out at Newcastle, and I'm thinking connections had one eye on this race already. The selection is down to a mark of OR90 and has a good draw based on the last Ascot meeting and last year's race. It is a long time now since Dandy Nicholls was the Sprint King, but longer term clients will remember us backing Joseph Henry (33/1) and Evens And Odds (25/1) when they won the Steward's Cup consolation race and Steward's Cup respectively on consecutive days in 2010. David Probert (who had recently lost his claim) and Billy Cray (claiming 5lb) rode those horses and the policy of using the best talented young pilots in sprints is something Nicholls continues to employ. The excellent Cam Hardie rides here, and he is really good value for his 5lb. The selection should get a tow into this from Demora and Masamah, and everything looks set for a big run.

Milly's Gift is ridden by another good claimer, Ryan Tate (3lb). She looked a big improver when winning handily at Sandown last time out, and although she isn't drawn as well, there is a chance a group could develop up the centre of the track and she looks the best of those is that does happen. A 4lb rise for the Sandown win looks very fair, and the stable's horses are flying (two winners here yesterday).

55TH JOHN SMITH´S CUP (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 1m2f88y

Selection: Red Avenger 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Bet Victor, guaranteed)

Red Avenger still looks well handicapped based on his Epsom form behind Abseil. He ran 8lb above his mark that day, but is unchanged since after a run in the Hunt Cup which didn't pan out well for him. He seems best suited by left handed turning tracks, and this race looks tailor made for him. Connor Beasley is robbery for his 3lb claim, and he is an interesting booking by Ed Dunlop, who might have used a bigger name jockey if the fixture list wasn't so clustered. Not many of these look well handicapped and guaranteed to enjoy conditions (whether ground or trip), and I think Red Avenger looks the bet of the day at anything around 12/1+.

DARLEY JULY CUP (BRITISH CHAMPIONS SERIES AND GLOBAL SPRINT CHALLENGE) (GROUP 1) 6f

Selections:

Jack Dexter 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed - get 1/4 odds 1-2-3)

Aljamaaheer 3pts win @ 11/1 (Generally guaranteed)

I don't think, on measure, that this race will turn into a draw farce. Deeds Not Words ploughed a lone furrow down the centre of the track yesterday and won handily, and I think it is more of a case of horses losing ground by tacking across that has suggestions of a draw bias being talked of. Many of the good horses, including Slade Power, are drawn high here and I expect the winner to come from this group. Jack Dexter revels in soft ground over six furlongs, and with Jim Goldie's stable in good form he looks the value against the favourite based on his close second to that rival in a soft ground Group 2 at Ascot last October. There isn't much between them and if the favourite underperforms for any reason, the selection's form gives him a winning chance.

Aljamaaheer was usually pulled out in the case of the ground turning soft, but I've long thought he displays a bit of knee action and I find it interesting he is left in today. Connections have presumably noted how well he ran on his seasonal debut on the Rowley course. The ground was officially described as Good that day, but there was rain around and I've little doubt it had gotten into the ground based on the times and the hoofprints the horses left behind them. The selection got very close to Hamza (who was laid out for the race) without being given a hard time, and if he can replicate that type of run today he has every chance. His Ascot form is strong and he should be able to get closer to Slade Power in these conditions. We're very much playing against the market here (he has been written off based on the ground) but at the prices he looks a must bet to me - he is no 11/1 shot.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -4.20 / year: +293.10