Saturday 19th July 2014

A very difficult day for betting purposes, with the ground something of an unknown in many cases due to changeable weather conditions. We have two interests.

5.25 Ripon Khelfan 4pts win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed) - N/R

There are many unknowns attached to this bet, which explains a win only policy despite the price, and the staking a point shorter than our median stake of five. The rain is coming down at Ripon, but the ground may just hold out enough that good / good to soft going will prevail by the off time for this race. In that case, I give Khelfan a chance. Again it is hard to be dogmatic about what conditions she will be best under, but her action suggests she won't want extremes and there is a chance she'll be best on the all weather. Her run at Lingfield last month makes her look potentially well handicapped here off OR53. She stayed on very well over the minimum, not asked too many questions in the closing stages and eventually reported to be lame. It looked like a bit of a handicap set up run and I think connections will be well pleased with the mark. Nathan Allison is booked to claim five off her today and this maiden handicap looks a neat piece of placement. I think she'll start to pick up races soon: whether it is today or not is probably in the lap of the gods. 12/1 is too big and 4pts win looks the call.

7.00 Haydock Kleitomachos 3pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 6/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Haydock has taken a right hammering and is forecast to continue to do so throughout the day. Conditions could be very testing by the time this race takes place. That should bring the soft ground specialists into it, and Kleitomachos looks a model to pick up a third career win in that case. The selection has won twice on soft and heavy ground, but has obviously been difficult to train given that he only saw the racecourse once between late 2012 and 2014. His recent Nottingham third on unsuitably quick ground looks strong in the context of today's race, and I would suggest there is room to manoeuvre off his current mark of OR77. I think he holds an excellent chance of winning and will probably be in the three, as a result we'll have a decent each-way and win bet and the current 6/1 which may well shorten.

Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: +27.55 / year: +323.85