We may have evening bets, an e-mail will follow with details before 5.30pm.
2.10 Newmarket Portland Place Properties July Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f
Selections:
Muhaarar 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 / 14/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Ladbrokes, all 1/4 1-2-3 guaranteed) - E/W 3rd
Ustinov 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Ladbrokes, all 1/4 1-2-3 guaranteed)
Dougal 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 28/1 / 25/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Ladbrokes, all 1/4 1-2-3 guaranteed)
Those of you who are new to us will probably see this as an unusual piece of staking, backing three horses in one race each-way and win. However, I feel we have a decent edge here both in getting 1/4 odds in a Group race and I can see a potential shock here. The reason is the rain that has fallen at Newmarket. It has been coming down heavily all morning, and although the ground has been changed to Good To Firm / Good In Places many at the track have said that further changes are likely. I think it could go soft and that brings stamina and ability to act in the conditions into play - the market hasn't reacted to this yet and I think the likes of Ivawood, The Great War, Jungle Cat and Mubtaghaa could be inconvenienced. As a result I'm backing two horses who are proven on the ground, and one whose stamina laden pedigree should ensure he gets home better than most.
Muhaarar hasn't been seen since winning at Doncaster on his debut, but that was on soft ground and his action suggests he will revel in today's conditions. He has to improve, but he was sent off odds on for the Doncaster race and is clearly thought to be useful. His owner was responsible for last year's winner and although this horse carries his second colours, I think he is more likely to handle the ground.
Dougal is the Richard Hannon Jnr. number two also, but his ability to act in this ground gives him an edge here. He might also be well drawn in stall 12 given this particular stalls alignment, and his form with Justice Good has worked out and gives him every chance. He didn't go to Ascot having scoped badly, but his trainer doesn't send horses here unless he thinks they can win and 25/1+ underestimates his chances.
Ustinov has it to find on the book, but he is by a Hernando mare and should see out the distance no problem. He has a real good ground action, and as such wouldn't be guaranteed to act on a bog if it rides that way, but if it's somewhere around good to soft in places, his run style and stamina might be suited to the race.
Profit & loss: day: -4.50 / month: -18.20 / year: +279.10
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