4.10 Lingfield Orlando Star 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 40/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Bet Victor, William Hill, guaranteed)
Those of you who are long term clients of ours will know that we're comfortable backing horses at pretty much any price from Evens to 100/1+ once the selection is underestimated in the market and represents value in the context of the race. That was the case on Monday when 11/4fav Dark Angel won handily, and it's also the case today with Orlando Star. I make him somewhere around 14/1 or 16/1 on my tissue here, so I'm very happy to get involved at 40/1 or better - indeed anything 28/1+ is very good value. The selections represents a trainer who gets some good all weather horses - Jack Of Diamonds, Highly Regal, Tiger's Tale and The Tichborne would spring to mind from recent years - and he is bred to make a decent sprinter on artificial surfaces. His best career effort came in his two year old season, over this course and distance when he posted an RPR of 69, finishing fourth in a decent maiden behind Tea Leaf. He has fallen in the handicap since he was first given a mark of OR70, and competes off OR57 today, which makes him look fairly handicapped even based on the RPR of 54 he posted at Kempton when he looked unfit on seasonal debut.
The crucial thing here is Orlando Star's two recent runs. He improved for the fitting of a first time visor at Brighton on his penultimate run, and despite looking uncomfortable and changing his legs down the hill, he posted an RPR of 58 which signalled a return to something like form. He followed that up with a lesser effort on the figures last time out, but that was over seven furlongs at Brighton and again he looked uncomfortable on the track. He showed plenty of speed to lead a much deeper field than this in a class 5 event, and the fourth has since finished second in a class 5 at Thirsk, while the horse who missed the break and finished last has since won. You'd have to think Orlando Star will be suited by the return to polytrack, and the horses in here just don't look much good: while Kodafine is dependable, she is limited, and Lead A Merry Dance doesn't look certain to put it all together on handicap debut given that she has no polytrack experience. Monashka Bay beat nothing when she won over course and distance, Mimi Luke is very moderate, Risk N Reward was around 100/1 on Betfair and clearly not expected when withdrawn having bolted at Kempton last time. This race is there for the taking, and the only realy negative that comes to mind is that there is potentially some pace on, and Orlando Star could end up wide from his stall 10 draw. His claimer Danny Brock is worth his 5lb, though, and gave an aggressive front running ride to a 50/1 apparent no hoper here the other day over seven furlongs, the horse finishing second. This is the type of bet that could go horribly wrong, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the selection win comfortably either. At the prices, it is a risk worth taking for a potentially lucrative reward.
Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +3.30 / year: +300.60
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