Monday 18th August 2014

Just one bet for today.

2.30 Kempton Qanan 2pts each-way AND 3pts win @ 8/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral, independents, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

The ten furlong trip at Kempton is unusual in that it is run on the inner course, on a tight track which only suits certain horses. Tactical speed is a must and I was really struck by Qanan's win here three starts ago, when he made mince meat of what was admittedly only a fair field of handicappers. He has held his form ok since, with a pair of seconds including a recent run behind a good three year old of Stoute's, looking at one point as though he had that rivals measure before the weight he gave away told. The return to this course and distance is a real positive for me, and this looks a decent piece of placement carrying top weight in a 0-85 - he is a strapping horse who should have no problem giving weight away. Ted Durcan, his usual pilot, takes the ride. The negative here is that he has been drawn widest of all, and Durcan will need to pull something out of the bag to negotiate that difficult draw. If he's half asleep and gets caught five horses wide around the bends, the bet is pretty much sunk. But there isn't a lot of pace on here, and there is a fair run to the first turn, so a tactically astute piece of riding might put him in with a good chance. He has been pushed out solely on the basis of that poor draw: I think if he negotiates it, he becomes a 7/2 chance. He looks very progressive, and that can't be said for many of these. 15/2+ is too big.

Profit & loss: day: -1.00 / month: -21.75 / year: +364.05

Saturday 16th August 2014

Two races of interest today: the big handicaps at Ripon. Be careful to read the unusual staking correctly today.

2.50 Ripon

Avon Breeze 1pt each-way @ 10/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 2pts win @ Betfair SP

Soul Brother 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Bet 365, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Betfair Sportsbook, guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Avon Breeze looked as good as every when winning at Redcar the other day, and although this is a much more competitive contest, that run was a lifetime best and she may be able to follow up off 5lb higher. She "won" the race on the far side last year, and is likely to race on that side again. There looks to be plenty of pace on that side today and I would suggest it will be a close call between the two groups. For a horse in the form of her life, with ideal conditions, 10/1 makes plenty of appeal.

Tim Easterby's horses routinely outperform their market expectations at this track, and his Soul Brother could be a dark horse here. He is well named, being a half brother to Body And Soul, and although he hasn't scaled his half sister's heights as of yet, he has proven himself at this specialist track and he could be well handicapped off OR86. It isn't easy for a three year old to win this type of event, but he looks to have been laid out for the race and the booking of Declan McDonagh is really interesting. He is drawn high, so we've taken an old fashioned "one from each side" approach here.

3.30 Ripon

Fast Shot 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Clear Spring 1pt each-way @ 18/1 / 16/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Fast Shot is another from the Easterby yard. He bagged a pair of course handicaps earlier this year, and I am inclined to forgive him his Wokingham run at Ascot, where he was drawn on the wrong side of the track. Track, trip and ground are just right for him here, and I'm hoping Rachel Richardson takes him over to the far side from this draw - his last course and distance win came after he raced far side. He still looks well handicapped to me and seems to have been laid out for the race. His young rider gets on well with him, and she is a steal for her 7lb claim in these circumstances.

Clear Spring won the consolation race here last year and is another who has probably had this contest as his long term target. He is a course and distance specialist, and is probably still well handicapped off OR98. There is a sense of having all our eggs in the one basket here, because he too is drawn far side, but the better horses seem to be drawn low to me and I'm happy enough to stick with proven course and distance sorts here. Anything 16/1+ is too big. The markets are traditionally very solid for these two races, and with many horses going off at exaggerated SP's, we'll play part of our bets at the exchange starting prices.

Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: -20.75 / year: +365.05

Thursday 14th August 2014

Two selections for this evening.

1pt each-way double on today's selections 4/1 and 11/2 generally guaranteed - E/W 2nd & 2nd (10c r4)

7.25 Chepstow Nafaath 5pts win @ 11/2 (Generally guaranteed)

Will handle ground conditions well. Looks well handicapped on his old form and showed at Haydock that he retains his ability. Stays well and Donald McCain has recently had his first flat winner of the year having been out of form. We will include him in an each-way double with our second selection.

7.55 Chepstow Fuzzy Logic 5pts win @ 9/2 (Stan James, Betpack.com, William Hill, guaranteed, 4/1 generally guaranteed)

A very quirky horse, but is improving and stays well. Handles soft ground. The crucial thing here is that Martin Lane knows him quite well and will be aware than he acts here, but tends to get lonely in front and hang. If he can take preventative measures and keep him interested, he can maintain his progression and break his flat maiden against a poor bunch.

Profit & loss: day: -7.50 / month: -7.75 / year: +378.05

Wednesday 13th August 2014

Just one selection for this evening.

9.20 Kempton Galatian 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Bet 365, Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, independents, guaranteed) - WON

Galatian hasn't had many chances on the all weather for a seven year old, but he has been consistent on polytrack surfaces and looks well handicapped based on most of those efforts. He should just be coming back to the boil after an absence - indeed he has only had seven starts since 2012 - but he has looked in good form just lately and both his course and distance starts hinted at better to come. It's been a long time since he showed anything on turf so his recent Salisbury run is best ignored in my view. His run behind Aomen Rock in July was full of positives - he travelled well, and once he found a gap he really finished to effect, but the winner had flown. He steps back to seven furlongs tonight but he has won over this trip and the stronger pace of the race might just help him. There isn't much pace on here and George Baker might make the most of stall one and ride him forward (has been adaptable in regard to riding tactics in the past). Rod Millman's stable do well at this track, including with older horses, and the jockey booking suggests they are going for it (Pat Millman usually rides). 14/1+ is too big in what looks a race bigger on quantity than genuine quality.

Profit & loss: day: +63.00 / month: -0.25 / year: +385.55

Tuesday 12th August 2014

Two selections and an each-way double for today.

1pt each-way double on today's selections - 5/1 / 9/4 generally guaranteed)

2.45 Carlisle Bond Club 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally guaranteed)

It now looks almost certain that another band of heavy rain will hit Carlisle before racing, and the ground will turn soft enough that many horses won't get through it. Bond Club revels in testing conditions, though, and doesn't look badly handicapped based on his best form. He was impressive in winning a Leicester seller in similar conditions earlier this year, and if he is refreshed by a recent break, he should be able to cope with these rivals. He looks a little bit better handicapped, and arguably a bit classier, than most of them bar perhaps Seal Rock. However, I don't think he is the force of old and don't believe he will handle the conditions as well. 5/1+ looks very fair.

5.30 Carlisle Vodka Wells 6pts win @ 9/4 (Coral, Betfair Sportsbook, many independents, get guaranteed)

Vodka Wells has French form on ground described as heavy, and his action suggests he will probably improve quite a bit for the softer surfaces we are likely to encounter as the season progresses towards Autumn. The form of his Sandown fourth last time looks better than anything else in this race in my view, and I actually think he will improve a bundle for the ground and step up in trip. Brian Ellison does well with horses of this profile, and connections paid a pretty penny for the horse at the Arqana sales. I don't think he will have any trouble carrying the weight. He should be a class above these, and we'll include him in an each-way double with Bond Club.

Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: -63.25 / year: +322.55

Monday 11th August 2014

Just one selection for Monday.

4.30 Ayr Go Go Green 5pts win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Six furlongs on rain softened ground are Go Go Green's ideal conditions these days, and he gets just that at Ayr today. He also wants a bit of pace to run at, and the presence of Baron Run and Rise To Glory, as well as Jinky who should race prominently, should ensure this is a decent test. The selection has been running in better races than this, and looks quite fairly handicapped on some of his recent efforts. He was close up behind Jinky on Saturday night, but that was on quicker ground over five furlongs and he did all his best work at the finish. He was ridden by Samantha Bell, who was noticeably tender on him in the closing stages once it became clear he wouldn't win. He didn't seem to have much of a hard race and as a result I'm quite keen on him turned out quickly here. He should be cherry ripe and, given ideal conditions and a field not over heavy on unexposed sorts, he looks the bet of the day at the prices.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -50.25 / year: +335.55

Saturday 9th August 2014

Two selections for this afternoon, and there is a chance of an evening bet - details on that either way before 5.30pm.

1pt each-way double on today's selections, 10/3 and 13/2 and better generally guaranteed (Boylesports and Bet Victor best prices)

2.30 Newmarket Clon Brulee 6pts win @ 7/2 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

Clon Brulee is a relatively lightly raced five year old who is a ten furlong specialist, and goes well on rain softened ground. Godolphin have done well with this type of acquisition in the past and I'd expect this gelding, whom they bought from David Barron, has been aimed at an autumn campaign in top handicaps. Bin Suroor's stable are in good form, and this is the time of year that they tend to pick up these "stepping stone" races on their way to bigger autumn targets. The overnight deluge will be in the selections favour, and I don't think he'll have trouble with his big weight. Silverstre De Sousa rides this track very well, and is savvy to what is required when the ground is testing here (witness his ride on Cavalryman for that horses pre-Goodwood win). I made the selection favourite on my book given the ground conditions, and I think the 7/2 will disappear come post time. We'll include him in an each-way double with our second selection.

3.05 Newmarket Gramercy 5pts win @ 7/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed)

Gramercy is a son of Whipper, whose progeny have an outstanding actual versus expected ratio on ground described as soft or heavy. Gramercy handles such conditions well, and his Doncaster second behind Red Refraction on soft ground earlier this season suggests he retains all his ability. He tends to come to hand around August these days, and he looks well handicapped enough off OR87 to resume winning ways today. Many of his rivals are unproven on the ground, or have question marks about them with regard to their recent form. David Simcock's stable have been in good form, and he had two winners here last week. Gramercy hasn't been the easiest to win with, but his handicap mark and the 5lb claim of the excellent Cam Hardie gives him every chance here. A potential far rail bias might throw a spanner in the works if this apprentice jockey isn't alive to it, but all things considered the current 13/2+ is too big and looks worth taking.

Profit & loss: day: +14.00 / month: -45.25 / year: +340.55

Friday 8th August 2014

Just one selection for this evening.

8.20 Newmarket Secret Witness 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed)

There is some rain around Newmarket and radar images indicate it may fall for a while yet. Any softening in the ground would be against the likes of Zanetto and Go Far, and would probably play into the hands of Secret Witness. The selection was second in this race last year, and likes some cut in the ground and a strong pace. Despite a smallish field, the two at the head of the market like to get on with it and the selection is drawn in stall three, near that pair who are in one and two, and he should get a nice tow into the race. He had a few weeks off before a decent run at Doncaster six days ago, where he showed more than he has done in a while, hitting a bit of a flat spot half way through the race before staying on again close home. He tends to go well turned out quickly, and despite a handicap mark of OR92 which looks stiff enough, conditions seem to favour him this evening more so than any of his rivals. I'm keen on him at the current prices and we'll play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -59.25 / year: +326.55

Thursday 7th August 2014

We had a fairly obvious case of a jockey not doing his homework last night, with Richard Hughes deciding to make use of My Manekineko's "stamina", putting aside any concerns that the horse doesn't like being in front too long. He was soon eased.

Two for today.

4.10 Haydock 

Rasaman 4pts win @ 11/1 (Bet Victor, Betfair Sportsbook, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

Go Go Green 2pts win @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed)

This is a decent looking sprint that might throw up future winners. In saying that, I don't think Duke Cosimo or Bop It merit their prices. I talked a bit about the former when we supported a couple of horses against him on his previous run. He has that "unexposed sprinter" profile and there is an assumption amongst the betting public that he will improve, hence the short odds. I'm not so sure Haydock will suit him well, and at the prices I'll take him on. Bop It hasn't been in form and owes his price to his course and distance prowess. His well being has to be taken on trust and at these odds I'm not inclined to be a believer. 

Rasaman has hinted at a return to form just lately, and he is best these days at six furlongs on good to soft ground. Graham Lee is excellent on this type of horse and I thought he was too big at a double figure price. I also like stablemate Go Go Green. He won over course and distance earlier this year and has had excuses since. He is actually much better off with Arctic Feeling, who was third behind him that day, and I don't see why the latter is so much shorter. 20/1 on Go Go Green looks well worth adding. I'm inclined to play the pair win only, getting 1/5 odds on three places doesn't make much sense in handicaps over time.

7.00 Southwell Mandy The Nag 6pts win @ 11/2 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, guaranteed, 5/1 generally guaranteed)

Many The Nag looks well handicapped, well drawn, and is 2/2 over course and distance. She looks a Southwell specialist and I think she is overpriced here against Pearl Nation. The latter is by Speightstown, whose progeny have a good record here, but they tend to run on their nerves and I'm not sure about him over a mile. Dutch Rifle is just as likely to bomb out as win and is too short. Time and time again, horses proven on this surface go and do the business. With that in mind, I would suggest the biggest danger to Mandy The Nag is Sofia's Number One, with Roy Bowring's string in good form again. I just think our selection should get the run of the race and is probably a bit more unexposed. 5/1+ is very fair.

Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: -53.25 / year: +332.55

Wednesday 6th August 2014

Today's racing is more about quantity than quality, and good opportunities are thin on the ground. We have one interest, in the final race of the evening.

9.10 Kempton My Manekineko 6pts win @ 15/2 (William Hill, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed)

My Manekineko is just 1/23 for his career, and 0/12 on the all weather, but there is definitely an angle in here. He was initially campaigned over middle distances before stepping up to staying trips, but he often didn't seem to get home having travelled well. Despite his record on polytrack, he has posted some decent figures at Kempton and is largely consistent here. He got a very average ride from David Probert three runs back here over a mile, when he was allowed to sit prominently on a disputed pace from early in the race, helping to set it up for Aomen Rock who won easily having been held up. He travelled noticeably well that day, and his reinvention as a miler looks the way forward for the time being. I don't see any need to have him on the pace given how sweetly he goes, and the booking of Richard Hughes here would suggest he might be ridden more patiently tonight. Hughes knows the horse quite well and rode him to a head defeat over two miles here. There is some pace potential in tonight's contest, with Harwood's Star, Shahrazad and possible Zed Candy Girl all likely to go forward. That will suit the selection, who will most likely be held up in mid division. Anything around 13/2+ looks fair and I'm inclined to play win only - Richard Hughes is brilliant, but isn't a jockey to relay on to ride out for a place if a race doesn't pan out his way.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -41.25 / year: +344.55

Tuesday 5th August 2014

Just one for today.

2.15 Catterick Indian Champ 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 9/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Berland is a strong favourite here, but while he travelled well on his debut, I'm not sure how much aptitude he displayed for actually passing horses, and he didn't seem to do anything too quickly. He is the most likely winner here, but at 2/5 he is plenty short enough. If he merits his Group 2 entry, I don't see why he wasn't sent somewhere like Goodwood last week - why send him to Catterick?

La Estatua didn't pick up at all second time out which has to be a worry for the second favourite. Indian Champ is bred to be a two year old and has looked slowly progressive. His last two runs have been solid and it was noticeable he hung left all the way around Carlisle last time out. The switch to a left handed track which favours front runners is perfect for his style. The removal of the blinkers worn on his first three starts is an unknown, but they didn't seem to do him much good last time out and he hasn't looked temperamental. The stable 5lb claimer takes a handy allowance off his back and if the favourite fails to fire or is too green to do himself justice, Indian Champ might be the one to take advantage.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -35.25 / year: +350.55

Monday 4th August 2014

Two horses of interest for this evening.

1pt each-way double on this evening's selections, 12/1 and 8/1 generally guaranteed.

5.50 Kempton Khelfan 4pts win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Khelfan was noted posting an improved performance at Lingfield on her penultimate start at Lingfield. That was a moderate contest, but she saw the race out particularly well, doing her best work at the finish to suggest there might be improvement to come over six furlongs. She was taken out of a Ripon race due to deteriorating ground, and eventually ran at Lingfield over six in a decent race last week. She was noticeably weak on the exchanges pre race, and was never given much of a chance. Held up in rear, she got piles of kickback in her face and was never going to get involved. Saying that, she did run on well close home. Today's contest is a step down in class for her and her handicap mark is fair. A 5lb claimer is booked to ease her burden, and although she is drawn widest of all her hold up style of running means she shouldn't be too inconvenienced. This is a weak contest and she is a decent price at 12/1. 

7.15 Carlisle Mercer's Row 5pts win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Mercer's Row has improved this season, and his run in a hot Redcar handicap last time out really caught the eye. He was sent off 25/1 for a good class 4 handicap and ran really well to finish sixth of seventeen having raced on the unfavourable far side of the track. He returns to Carlisle this evening, where his previous form figures read 1,2 and has the assistance of Gemma Tutty in this Lady Riders handicap, a jockey who knows him well. He races over a five and a half furlong trip, but I pointed out last time that he has plenty of speed and shouldn't be inconvenienced by this sort if distance. He seems to like this quirky track and the stiff finish will suit him well. He has a good draw in stall 5 and if Tutty can get a prominent early sit, I think he can take advantage of the drop back to 0-75 company at a price which underestimates his chance.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -29.25 / year: +356.55

Glorious Goodwood 2014 - Day Five

A cracking day's racing, and as usual for us it's the two sprint handicaps we're betting in.

2:05 32RedSport.com Handicap (Consolation Race for the 32Red Cup) (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f

Slip Sliding Away 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Bet 365, William Hill, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 4th @ 12/1 sp 

Kinglami 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Slip Sliding Away can probably be described as a Goodwood specialist, but I definitely think he is a six furlong horse and he has been badly outpaced in the middle of the race the last two times he raced over the minimum here. This race looks an obvious target for him as a strong travelling type who handles the course really well, and his Tuesday run confirms he is in good form. He will need everything to go right for him but he is more or less guaranteed to run his race at this course and I like backing that type of horse in these big handicaps.

Kinglami represents a trainer who targets these Goodwood sprints, indeed he won the race in 2011. Kinglami is another who is proven at Goodwood and he has form that ties in with Slip Sliding Away. His Ascot run over seven furlongs was decent, and he is another for whom a strongly run six is probably his optimum. 16/1 is too big, and he might be drawn well in stall two if the race develops far side as the sprints have done throughout the week.

3:50 32Red Cup (Stewards´ Cup) (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f

Alben Star 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/1 (Generally - get 5 places guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

Seeking Magic 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally - get 5 places guaranteed)

Ashpan Sam 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Generally - get 5 places guaranteed)

With most bookmakers paying five places, I'm happy to have three cracks at this big handicap. Muthmir has no experience of this unique track and is therefore taken on at odds of just 4/1. Intrinsic looks closely enough matched with Ashpan Sam and I can't understand why one is 13/2 and the other 33/1. I don't see much pace in this contest relative to the type of race it is, and with Jimmy Fortune riding out of his skin this week I'm happy to take a chance in him getting the fractions right and getting a relatively soft time of it in front. Ashpan Sam's last run at Windsor was disappointing, but at the prices he is given the benefit of the doubt, especially with his trainer's horses in good form. Track, trip and ground hold no fears for him and he could be drawn well too.

Alben Star has contested most of the big sprint handicaps this summer and seems to thrive at this trip in a big field. He can sit prominently just off the pace and is able to maintain a high cruising speed better than most horses. That tends to keep him out of trouble and I think this could be run to suit him. The booking of George Chaloner, won has already won one big handicap this summer, means Alben Star's weight is reduced by 3lb and that could be a masterstroke by trainer Richard Fahey.

Seeking Magic excels on downhill tracks and although there are question marks about his draw in stall 28/28, I'm really not sure there is much in it and I'd be keen to back him given his prowess at this type of track. Clive Cox has his team in very good form and Seeking Magic won the consolation race last year, having travelled really well throughout. The horse he beat, Take Cover, is a Group horse and his win in the big sprint here yesterday makes that piece of form look all the more impressive.

Profit & loss: day: -7.25 / month: -18.25 / year: +367.55

Glorious Goodwood 2014 - Day Four

Angelic Upstart ran out a game winner yesterday; always nice to finish the month with a winner.

Keep an eye out for price alerts which may be released at any time today, given the rain that may or may not arrive at Goodwood!

Two selections for today at Goodwood.

1.55 Goodwood Cafe Society 5pts win @ 6/1 (Generally guaranteed)

I'm keen to take on Pether's Moon here because he looks difficult to win with. Encke, Quest For Peace, and Songcraft all seem to have autumn campaigns in mind and that leaves the race with a standout candidate in my view. Cafe Society looks the only genuinely progressive horse in this line up and, with no question marks about his fitness or recent form, he looks good value to continue progressing at 6/1. This kind of trip will suit him perfectly, but he was far from disgraced over ten furlongs in the Wolferton Handicap at Royal Ascot. He did all his best work at the finish and is already proven over twelve having won at the trip at Windsor on his previous start. Gai Waterhouse bought this horse for £330,000 at the sales on the eve of Ascot, and you'd have to think a tilt at the Melbourne Cup might be on the agenda at some point. The horse looks physically very scopey, and although I think he still has some growing to do I think he can pick up this weak looking Group 3 on his way to better things.

3.05 Goodwood

Horsted Keynes 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, William Hill, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed)

Bronze Angel 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 18/1 (Bet 365, William Hill, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)

I don't like most of the low drawn horses here, and although there is plenty of pace on, the race seems to be loaded with seven furlong specialists and I think they might get picked up late on by the genuine milers. Horsted Keynes, oddly enough, has raced exclusively at seven in his career to date but he looks a real miler to me. He took a long time to pick up in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, the reason I avoided him last time out over the same course and distance with slightly less pace on. He again looked a bit sluggish in the International Handicap but was stranded early on with no cover and was given a very tender ride by his jockey in the closing stages when it became clear the race hadn't panned out for him. That should mean he is spot on for today and I still think he could be a Group horse in a handicap. He is drawn wide but his running style should mean he can come fast and late to pick up the front runners.

Bronze Angel won a good York handicap in style on his penultimate run and is another for whom the drop down to seven was against at Ascot last time. He also ran well despite being a bit stranded at the edge of the pack, and he struggled to pick up late on. He has plenty of decent Goodwood form from his juvenile season, and despite being drawn widest of all the race should be run to suit. He is another who will be coming fast and late, and 16/1+ is too big.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -11.00 / year: +374.75

Glorious Goodwood 2014 - Day Three

Three selections for us at Goodwood today.

3.10 Goodwood Excellent Result 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Generally guaranteed - Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com pay 1/4 1-2-3)

I'm not mad keen on backing horses who contested the Ascot Gold Cup for this contest, and this year in particular Estimate has her first start since that race and second start of the year (and may bounce), while Brown Panther comes here having taken a different path to last year having run in the Ascot Gold Cup and a surprise visit to France a few weeks back where he disappointed. I'm inclined to take both on, but although Cavalryman looks a solid one at 11/2 and is having his best season yet, I think he is short enough for a horse who never looked like winning this last year and may not enjoy Goodwood (jury's out). A chance is taken on the Godolphin third string Excellent Result at 33/1. On pedigree, you'd have to question whether he stays, but he won a 1m6f handicap impressively in Meydan and improved again to win a Group 2 over 12f next time out, a career best effort. What is interesting is that he possesses tactical speed. That doesn't win you a Goodwood Cup on its own, but he is a four year old who hasn't had a chance at an extreme distance as yet and he looks worth his place in this line up. Jamie Spencer looks a really interesting booking for this type of horse, and I think he'll handle the track well. There isn't much pace on here, and if it turns into relative sprint, I think a shock could be on the cards.

4.50 Goodwood Secret Hint 5pts win @ 11/2 (Generally guaranteed)

Andrew Balding has won this race twice in recent years, and I think his Secret Hint is probably the best handicapped horse in the race here. She was impressive in winning her maiden at Doncaster last time out and looks the type of nippy horse who will act around this tight track. She faces some very good rivals here but many of them look badly handicapped and / or out of form. Trainers are creatures of habit and I think Balding must know he has a well handicapped one to enter her for this on her third career start. She could have a bit in hand here and at 11/2 I'm happy to take a chance on her.

5.25 Goodwood Angelic Upstart 5pts win @ 9/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON @12/1 20c R4

I'm not too worried that Oisin Murphy has apparently deserted Angelic Upstart, because this Kieran Shoemark is a good jockey in his own right and is able to claim 7lb of this gelding's back. Andrew Balding has a history of developing good apprentices and this horse has already responded well to inexperienced handling when Jack Garrity rode him into a close third at Newmarket recently. There is some pace on here, and Angelic Upstart hasn't had many chances with a stiff finish and a strong pace to run at, but I really fancy him here is he can get one clear run. Both his recent Epsom runs look like smart form to me and he was unlucky not to finish closer than he did at the Derby meeting, where he finished notably strongly in a race that has worked out well. I think 9/1 is very fair.

Profit & loss: day: +38.00 / month: +89.45 / year: +385.75

Glorious Goodwood 2014 - Day Two

A busy day for us at Goodwood.

I'm going to take a good look at the Galway Plate this afternoon, and if I think there's anything worth backing will release a selection before5.00pm.

2.30 Goodwood Scotland 6pts win @ 17/2 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 8/1 Totesport, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Betfred, guaranteed)

Scotland impressed me physically last time out. He looks a horse who has grown, and I thought he'd be a much shorter price and perhaps tipped up by Pricewise after the Balding stable had a winner here yesterday. I think 8/1 is really good value given the form of that contest. Eagle Top won easily but perhaps had the run of the race and went on to finish fourth in the King George. The runner up, Adelaide, has since finished second in a U.S. Grade 1 at Belmont. I think Scotland might improve for the Ascot race even though it was his third run of the season and his proven ability to handle Epsom bodes well for his chances at Goodwood today. Somewhat should turn this into a test, and the overnight watering will be in the selections favour. At the prices he rates the best bet of the day.

3.05 Goodwood Toronado 5pts win @ 3/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 11/4 generally guaranteed)

Too much has been made of the ground here and I think Toronado is too big in relation to Kingman. He comes here arguably the fresher horse, is proven at the track, won the race last year, and has the best course jockey on his back. The race might get tactical but I'm happy to have Richard Hughes on my side in that case and I just think he should be more like 15/8 as he was in the ante post markets. This bet is purely based on price, there's no rocket science about it, I believe the pair should be much closer in the market and Toronado gets the call.

3.40 Goodwood Tupi 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed) E/W 2nd

This looks a slightly sub standard Lennox Stakes to me, outside of the favourite Highland Reel. I can see negatives for many of these - Pallister may not handle the track or ground, Ahlan Emarati got a bit of a battering from Pat Smullen last time out and might not improve for it,the three outsiders look well held on form. Both the Hannon pair make some appeal, but Tupi gets the call after an impressive debut. That he managed to win handy despite his obvious greenness says a lot for his raw ability, and it has to be significant that Richard Hughes chooses him over Dr. No.  7/1 looks fair on an each-way and win basis.

5.25 Goodwood Bluegrass Blues 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Bluegrass Blues is happiest on right handed tracks over seven furlongs, and he looks overpriced to land this handicap on his return from a break. Paul Cole's stable have had many horses run above market expectations just lately, and although they haven't won it bodes well for the selections chances. He has won after an absence before, and looks the type of horse who doesn't stand too much racing but can generally be relied upon given his optimum conditions even without a recent run. The booking of Luke Morris is a positive and I would suggest this race has been the plan for a few weeks at least.

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5.30 Galway thetote.com Galway Plate (Chase Handicap) (Grade A) 2m6f

Selection: Quantitativeeasing 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed)

A cracking renewal of the Galway showpiece. This is a strong contest this year, with the bottom of the weights rated higher than is average for the race. In saying that, I don't see a standout candidate on form and I think it might pay to support a horse who is proven at the track. Quantitativeeasing was second in this contest last year, and with the winner of that race Carlingford Lough now rated 22lb higher following a very succesful season, the form looks very strong especially given the pair pulled well clear of another course winner, Jacksonslady.  Quantitativeeasing has since transferred from Nicky Henderson to Enda Bolger, but I don't really sea that as a negative and it may just be to freshen the horse up with a tilt at Cross Country racing in the minds of connections when the time comes.  The booking of Barry Geraghty, who knows the horse well, is a real positive and would suggest Bolger thinks the horse is on good terms with himself. I also think the ground might have been a little slower than his ideal last year, and despite some rain in Galway this afternoon I feel underfoot conditions will be perfect for him today. 20/1+ looks too big and we'll play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: -20.50 / month: +51.45 / year: +347.75

Glorious Goodwood 2014 - Day One

A really good card of racing kicks off Glorious Goodwood this year and we have interests in three races.

1.55 Goodwood Charles Camoin 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 28/1 generally guaranteed)

The winner of last year's running of this handicap, Viewpoint, is a ten furlong specialist who was turned out quickly having run at Ascot the previous Friday without pulling up any trees. Viewpoint looks handicapped out of this, but Charles Camoin has a very similar profile in that he is a trip specialist who ran in the handicap at Ascot last Friday. The deluge that fell early that afternoon really affected the ground, and for a horse that wants a road it effectively ended his chances. He wasn't given anything like a hard time in the end. His previous run (also at Ascot) resulted in an impressive win over Raskova, who franked the form when running second in a good York handicap on Saturday. Charles Camoin looks to be fairly handicapped and potentially well drawn here, so he looks underestimated at these huge prices. He makes more sense to me than most of the shorter priced horses in the race and his style of running is perfect for a Goodwood handicap such as this.

3.05 Goodwood Amarillo 3pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Amarillo looks the bet of the day. He won easily in a Group 3 at Hamburg last time out, at Hamburg. That track is very similar to Goodwood, being an undulating, tight right handed course, and Amarillo acted very well around it. He is a three times seven furlong winner and this race looks tailor made for him. He should get a lead from Es Que Love and sit on the rail from stall 1, before pouncing in the straight just like he did at Hamburg over six last time. I am keen to oppose Toormore, who hasn't looked himself the last twice and took plenty of time to pick up at this track last year. He'll need to be at his best to win and I'm just not sure he will be. Garswood won a weak renewal of this last year and probably doesn't deserve to be 9/2. The German raider looks excellent each-way value at a double figure price, particularly with some firms paying 1/4 odds on the dead eight.

5.20 Goodwood

Powerful Wind 2pts win AND 1pt place @ Betfair SP (or take 33/1 generally guaranteed if no betfair account)

Monumental Man 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Powerful Wind is a very fast horse, and with the stalls on the stands side today and the selection drawn 26/26, there has to be a chance he'll simply make all and never see a rival. You couldn't have scripted this any better for him, and although he has never raced at Goodwood, he has won handsomely at Chepstow, another downhill track, to break his maiden. He is a huge price on Betfair, and I'll take the chance that we can get on at a Betfair SP greater than the current 33/1 available. I'm also interested in Monumental Man here. He looks fairly handicapped and still progressive. He was the only one who could chase Powerful Wind when they met at Bath. Where his rival faded (may just have needed it after a few weeks off) Monumental Man battled on gamely, finding plenty to finish a close second. He should get a good tow into this from stall 22, and with plenty of pace drawn high, he may be able to get involved in the finish along with his old rival here.

Profit & loss: day: -21.00 / month: +71.95 / year: +368.25

Saturday 26th July 2014

A cracking day's racing with some top class group action and quality big field handicaps. Three races of betting interest to us.

2.20 York Yeeoow 5pts win @ 11/1 (Skybet, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

Backing a horse with just one turf win to his name might seem like folly in a hot contest like this, but Yeeoow has been at the top of his game for most of the season so far and has been unlucky not to pick up a win. That does, however, leave him looking well handicapped off OR92 in a race where many of his rivals are quite exposed even though they are an in form bunch. He has some good York form if you look hard enough, and his two year old run behind Pearl Secret is enough to suggest to me that he likes it here. His Pontefract run at the start of the season shows he handles a turning track (also two wins at Kempton) and his Newmarket second to Goldream was a really good run. He has suffered on more than one occasion as a result of the draw, and hasn't often been able to find cover. I think this will be run to suit him - the O'Meara horses will probably set an even tempo and it may not end up as much of a test. Yeeoow, who is stepping up to this trip for only the second time in his career, has the tactical speed to cope with that and could lead inside the final two furlongs and hold on late. I think he can improve for the trip and he may also respond to Martin Lane, who rides for the first time and has been in good form.

3.15 Ascot 

Heaven's Guest 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, all 5 places guaranteed) - E/W 4th

Georgian Bay 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Sporting Bet, all 5 places paid)

Fort Bastion 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 50/1 (Bet 365, SportingBet, Coral, Racebets.com. all 5 places paid)

With the each-way terms very favourable, I'm happy to back three selections each-way and win in this contest. I thought the Bunbury Cup was a very good race this year, and the winner Heaven's Guest is too big here at 22/1. He is well in with the handicapper, and has the assistance of a good 5lb claimer who is enjoying a breakout season. I think he is drawn close to the pace and his chance looks quite obvious to me. Georgian Bay didn't get the best of runs in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot, and his stable are in much better form now. He saw that race out strongly and has the assistance of a 3lb claimer who rides quite well. He raced alone in the Bunbury Cup and stuck on well in the circumstances with the brave move not really paying off. He should be able to race in the centre here and also looks overpriced. Of those on the near side, Fort Bastion looks very much overpriced at 50/1. He ran really well in the Chesham Stakes as a two year old behind Maybe, and his fourth in the Bunbury Cup is decent handicap form. I don't think he really handled Newmarket's dip well, he is a big enough horse and ultimately did well to finish where he did. He is potentially well drawn if there is indeed a near side bias, and although James Sullivan seems to have chosen King Torus I am happy to bet him at a price which I'm quite sure underestimates his chance.

3.30 York Goldream 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

It paid to finish strongly on the stands side at York yesterday, and as such I really like the chances of Goldream from stall 18 today. He is partnered for the first time by Sean Levey, who has a 3/20 15% strike rate here, returning an l.s.p. of +18.5. The selection has run well here in the past, and again has perhaps has been unlucky not to win already more than one race this season. His York form behind Bogart over five furlongs is strong, as is his recent third behind Milly's Gift, whom we might be hearing more from next week. I think anything in double figures is too big, and I'm happy to have a decent each-way and win stake with 4 places paid and thus the each-way terms in our favour.

Profit & loss: day: -5.50 / month: +92.95 / year: +389.25

Friday 25th July 2014

Just one selection for Friday.

5.00 Ascot Bispham Green 2pts each-way AND 3pts win @ 12/1 (Totesport, Betfred, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed)

The times at Ascot show that the rain has gotten into the ground after a thunderstorm and heavy downpours passed through this afternoon. Bispham Green is one of the only horses in here that should be suited by that bit of cut in the ground, and his previous win at Haydock three starts back came on a similar surface. He won easily that day and was noted changing his legs on occasion in the home straight when third at Pontefract last week. That looked a stronger race than todays, but I think this straight track and softer, more forgiving sand based surface will see the selection improve again. It is interesting he is drawn in stall 12, because the jockeys are starting to tack across to stands side for better ground. Perhaps Silvestre De Sousa (who has just ridden a winner at the track) will tack across or gradually make his way over and that may benefit the horse - he has tended to hang to his left in the past and it might not do his chances any harm today. Anything in double figures is too big and I expect him to be backed on course and perhaps on the exchanges.

Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: +98.45 / year: +394.75

Thursday 24th July 2014

Sophie's Beau won well yesterday, and fair play to Joanna Walton who was riding her first flat winner. Her strength and balance kept the selection running straight and true where others floundered all over the track.

One for this afternoon, and possible evening bets - details on those either way before 5.45pm.

4.50 Sandown My Son Max 5pts win @ 9/1 (William Hill, guaranteed, 17/2 Bet Victor, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed)

My Son Max has generally been doing ok for Michael Blake, but I made a note when he won at Southwell in a three runner seller on stable debut that he didn't really handle fibresand. Sometimes in small fields horses can get away with it at Southwell, and My Son Max got well behind before his class told and he simply ran on to master two inferior rivals. He has been found out on that surface since, including in a seller on his last start.

He returns to turf racing on a very competitive mark of OR72, though, and doesn't appear to be a forlorn hope here. He has generally been known as an all weather horse, but his turf form is probably just as good on inspection and he hasn't had many chances on a switchback track with a stiff finish. As a habitual closer, I think it ought to suit him, as will the reasonable pace that looks guaranteed here given the presence of a couple of front runners. The ground is perhaps a slight concern, but he has seemed adaptable on that front in the past and he doesn't have an action that suggests soft ground is a necessary. Previous connections seemed to try everything to make a straight track sprinter out of the horse, but his five wins since winning his maiden over 5f at Nottingham were all on turning tracks and I think this might be a smarter way to campaign him. His recent Leicester run over this trip was full of promise and the form has been franked by the winner (to some extent) and the fourth who has won since. Adam Kirby is a positive booking and a simple hold up ride to produce him late could see him shock the favourite. 8/1+ is fair.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +105.45 / year: +401.75