3.10 Goodwood Excellent Result 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Generally guaranteed - Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com pay 1/4 1-2-3)
I'm not mad keen on backing horses who contested the Ascot Gold Cup for this contest, and this year in particular Estimate has her first start since that race and second start of the year (and may bounce), while Brown Panther comes here having taken a different path to last year having run in the Ascot Gold Cup and a surprise visit to France a few weeks back where he disappointed. I'm inclined to take both on, but although Cavalryman looks a solid one at 11/2 and is having his best season yet, I think he is short enough for a horse who never looked like winning this last year and may not enjoy Goodwood (jury's out). A chance is taken on the Godolphin third string Excellent Result at 33/1. On pedigree, you'd have to question whether he stays, but he won a 1m6f handicap impressively in Meydan and improved again to win a Group 2 over 12f next time out, a career best effort. What is interesting is that he possesses tactical speed. That doesn't win you a Goodwood Cup on its own, but he is a four year old who hasn't had a chance at an extreme distance as yet and he looks worth his place in this line up. Jamie Spencer looks a really interesting booking for this type of horse, and I think he'll handle the track well. There isn't much pace on here, and if it turns into relative sprint, I think a shock could be on the cards.
4.50 Goodwood Secret Hint 5pts win @ 11/2 (Generally guaranteed)
Andrew Balding has won this race twice in recent years, and I think his Secret Hint is probably the best handicapped horse in the race here. She was impressive in winning her maiden at Doncaster last time out and looks the type of nippy horse who will act around this tight track. She faces some very good rivals here but many of them look badly handicapped and / or out of form. Trainers are creatures of habit and I think Balding must know he has a well handicapped one to enter her for this on her third career start. She could have a bit in hand here and at 11/2 I'm happy to take a chance on her.
5.25 Goodwood Angelic Upstart 5pts win @ 9/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON @12/1 20c R4
I'm not too worried that Oisin Murphy has apparently deserted Angelic Upstart, because this Kieran Shoemark is a good jockey in his own right and is able to claim 7lb of this gelding's back. Andrew Balding has a history of developing good apprentices and this horse has already responded well to inexperienced handling when Jack Garrity rode him into a close third at Newmarket recently. There is some pace on here, and Angelic Upstart hasn't had many chances with a stiff finish and a strong pace to run at, but I really fancy him here is he can get one clear run. Both his recent Epsom runs look like smart form to me and he was unlucky not to finish closer than he did at the Derby meeting, where he finished notably strongly in a race that has worked out well. I think 9/1 is very fair.
Profit & loss: day: +38.00 / month: +89.45 / year: +385.75
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