2.30 Kempton Qanan 2pts each-way AND 3pts win @ 8/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral, independents, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd
The ten furlong trip at Kempton is unusual in that it is run on the inner course, on a tight track which only suits certain horses. Tactical speed is a must and I was really struck by Qanan's win here three starts ago, when he made mince meat of what was admittedly only a fair field of handicappers. He has held his form ok since, with a pair of seconds including a recent run behind a good three year old of Stoute's, looking at one point as though he had that rivals measure before the weight he gave away told. The return to this course and distance is a real positive for me, and this looks a decent piece of placement carrying top weight in a 0-85 - he is a strapping horse who should have no problem giving weight away. Ted Durcan, his usual pilot, takes the ride. The negative here is that he has been drawn widest of all, and Durcan will need to pull something out of the bag to negotiate that difficult draw. If he's half asleep and gets caught five horses wide around the bends, the bet is pretty much sunk. But there isn't a lot of pace on here, and there is a fair run to the first turn, so a tactically astute piece of riding might put him in with a good chance. He has been pushed out solely on the basis of that poor draw: I think if he negotiates it, he becomes a 7/2 chance. He looks very progressive, and that can't be said for many of these. 15/2+ is too big.
Profit & loss: day: -1.00 / month: -21.75 / year: +364.05
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