2.50 Ripon
Avon Breeze 1pt each-way @ 10/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 2pts win @ Betfair SP
Soul Brother 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Bet 365, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Betfair Sportsbook, guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
Avon Breeze looked as good as every when winning at Redcar the other day, and although this is a much more competitive contest, that run was a lifetime best and she may be able to follow up off 5lb higher. She "won" the race on the far side last year, and is likely to race on that side again. There looks to be plenty of pace on that side today and I would suggest it will be a close call between the two groups. For a horse in the form of her life, with ideal conditions, 10/1 makes plenty of appeal.
Tim Easterby's horses routinely outperform their market expectations at this track, and his Soul Brother could be a dark horse here. He is well named, being a half brother to Body And Soul, and although he hasn't scaled his half sister's heights as of yet, he has proven himself at this specialist track and he could be well handicapped off OR86. It isn't easy for a three year old to win this type of event, but he looks to have been laid out for the race and the booking of Declan McDonagh is really interesting. He is drawn high, so we've taken an old fashioned "one from each side" approach here.
3.30 Ripon
Fast Shot 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
Clear Spring 1pt each-way @ 18/1 / 16/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
Fast Shot is another from the Easterby yard. He bagged a pair of course handicaps earlier this year, and I am inclined to forgive him his Wokingham run at Ascot, where he was drawn on the wrong side of the track. Track, trip and ground are just right for him here, and I'm hoping Rachel Richardson takes him over to the far side from this draw - his last course and distance win came after he raced far side. He still looks well handicapped to me and seems to have been laid out for the race. His young rider gets on well with him, and she is a steal for her 7lb claim in these circumstances.
Clear Spring won the consolation race here last year and is another who has probably had this contest as his long term target. He is a course and distance specialist, and is probably still well handicapped off OR98. There is a sense of having all our eggs in the one basket here, because he too is drawn far side, but the better horses seem to be drawn low to me and I'm happy enough to stick with proven course and distance sorts here. Anything 16/1+ is too big. The markets are traditionally very solid for these two races, and with many horses going off at exaggerated SP's, we'll play part of our bets at the exchange starting prices.
Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: -20.75 / year: +365.05
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