2.20 York Yeeoow 5pts win @ 11/1 (Skybet, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)
Backing a horse with just one turf win to his name might seem like folly in a hot contest like this, but Yeeoow has been at the top of his game for most of the season so far and has been unlucky not to pick up a win. That does, however, leave him looking well handicapped off OR92 in a race where many of his rivals are quite exposed even though they are an in form bunch. He has some good York form if you look hard enough, and his two year old run behind Pearl Secret is enough to suggest to me that he likes it here. His Pontefract run at the start of the season shows he handles a turning track (also two wins at Kempton) and his Newmarket second to Goldream was a really good run. He has suffered on more than one occasion as a result of the draw, and hasn't often been able to find cover. I think this will be run to suit him - the O'Meara horses will probably set an even tempo and it may not end up as much of a test. Yeeoow, who is stepping up to this trip for only the second time in his career, has the tactical speed to cope with that and could lead inside the final two furlongs and hold on late. I think he can improve for the trip and he may also respond to Martin Lane, who rides for the first time and has been in good form.
3.15 Ascot
Heaven's Guest 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, all 5 places guaranteed) - E/W 4th
Georgian Bay 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Sporting Bet, all 5 places paid)
Fort Bastion 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 50/1 (Bet 365, SportingBet, Coral, Racebets.com. all 5 places paid)
With the each-way terms very favourable, I'm happy to back three selections each-way and win in this contest. I thought the Bunbury Cup was a very good race this year, and the winner Heaven's Guest is too big here at 22/1. He is well in with the handicapper, and has the assistance of a good 5lb claimer who is enjoying a breakout season. I think he is drawn close to the pace and his chance looks quite obvious to me. Georgian Bay didn't get the best of runs in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot, and his stable are in much better form now. He saw that race out strongly and has the assistance of a 3lb claimer who rides quite well. He raced alone in the Bunbury Cup and stuck on well in the circumstances with the brave move not really paying off. He should be able to race in the centre here and also looks overpriced. Of those on the near side, Fort Bastion looks very much overpriced at 50/1. He ran really well in the Chesham Stakes as a two year old behind Maybe, and his fourth in the Bunbury Cup is decent handicap form. I don't think he really handled Newmarket's dip well, he is a big enough horse and ultimately did well to finish where he did. He is potentially well drawn if there is indeed a near side bias, and although James Sullivan seems to have chosen King Torus I am happy to bet him at a price which I'm quite sure underestimates his chance.
3.30 York Goldream 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd
It paid to finish strongly on the stands side at York yesterday, and as such I really like the chances of Goldream from stall 18 today. He is partnered for the first time by Sean Levey, who has a 3/20 15% strike rate here, returning an l.s.p. of +18.5. The selection has run well here in the past, and again has perhaps has been unlucky not to win already more than one race this season. His York form behind Bogart over five furlongs is strong, as is his recent third behind Milly's Gift, whom we might be hearing more from next week. I think anything in double figures is too big, and I'm happy to have a decent each-way and win stake with 4 places paid and thus the each-way terms in our favour.
Profit & loss: day: -5.50 / month: +92.95 / year: +389.25
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