1pt each-way double on today's selections - 5/1 / 9/4 generally guaranteed)
2.45 Carlisle Bond Club 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally guaranteed)
It now looks almost certain that another band of heavy rain will hit Carlisle before racing, and the ground will turn soft enough that many horses won't get through it. Bond Club revels in testing conditions, though, and doesn't look badly handicapped based on his best form. He was impressive in winning a Leicester seller in similar conditions earlier this year, and if he is refreshed by a recent break, he should be able to cope with these rivals. He looks a little bit better handicapped, and arguably a bit classier, than most of them bar perhaps Seal Rock. However, I don't think he is the force of old and don't believe he will handle the conditions as well. 5/1+ looks very fair.
5.30 Carlisle Vodka Wells 6pts win @ 9/4 (Coral, Betfair Sportsbook, many independents, get guaranteed)
Vodka Wells has French form on ground described as heavy, and his action suggests he will probably improve quite a bit for the softer surfaces we are likely to encounter as the season progresses towards Autumn. The form of his Sandown fourth last time looks better than anything else in this race in my view, and I actually think he will improve a bundle for the ground and step up in trip. Brian Ellison does well with horses of this profile, and connections paid a pretty penny for the horse at the Arqana sales. I don't think he will have any trouble carrying the weight. He should be a class above these, and we'll include him in an each-way double with Bond Club.
Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: -63.25 / year: +322.55
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