Tuesday 23rd September 2014

It hasn't been the best of months so far by any means, but I'd expect things to level out before the month's end. One or two things have gone against us lately: yesterday Mister Rockandroll was hampered on the home turn which cost him a lot of momentum. He is a big horse and had no real chance to get going again on that tight inner circuit - I think he'd have gone very close to winning with a clear run.

Two selections for today.

1pt each-way double on today's selections, 5/1 and 8/1 generally guaranteed.

2.50 Lingfield Swaheen 5pts win @ 5/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Coral, William Hill, Racebets.com, guaranteed)

Swaheen is a half brother to Louis The Pious who made a nice debut at Lingfield over seven furlongs in July, finishing third under tender handling behind two nice horses. He disappointed second time out at Newcastle but didn't move well at all that day, and he actually ran ok considering he didn't appear to stride out well. I think he'll handle the switch to polytrack without any issues, and the step up to a mile should suit him looking at his pedigree. Sir Michael Stoute's horses have been in good form and I note this horse has an entry in a valuable sales race in early October. That would suggest he is thought of as a decent backend two year old, and I think he has every chance of breaking his maiden in this field today. Bnedel looked leggy and weak on debut, while the favourite Glorious Dubai is unraced and looks more of a three year old on paper. 5/1 is very fair, particularly with Ryan Moore in the saddle.

4.05 Nottingham Dalaki 1pt each-way AND 3pts win @ 10/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed)

This is a decent looking contest, but I've noted that the favourite Hesbaan doesn't look the strongest stayer at this trip and Dalaki is well handicapped with him on a line through This Is The Day based on Brighton form. The selection finished just ahead of This Is The Day getting 1lb, Hesbaan was beaten 3 3/4 lengths by him over the same course and distance, giving him 2lbs. Dalaki gets 5lbs off Hesbaan today and although that rival may not have acted at Brighton, it makes him look good value at the prices. He can be forgiven his Kempton run last time out - it was his all weather debut and he was given a pretty bad ride over a mile (indeed he did well to finish where he did). Returned to turf and with Richard Hughes booked for the first time, I'd be hopeful of an improved performance. I'd like to see him ridden with a little more patience (especially with Hesbaan and Daisy Boy likely to race prominently or lead) and the right jockey has been booked if those tactics are to be employed.

Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: -95.50 / year: +252.55

Monday 22nd September 2014

5.40 Kempton Royal Preserve 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)

The progeny of Duke Of Marmalade perform well on polytrack, and it is perhaps no surprise that Royal Preserve's best form to date. Indeed, his best run came over course and distance when he split Crystal Lake and Billingsgate in a tight finish back in May. That contest has worked out well, with the winner, second and fourth all having won and improved markedly since. Based on that performance, Royal Preserve looks very well handicapped off OR76. The caveat is his disappointing Haydock performance next time out, and the fact that he has been off the track since. However, that is most certainly factored into the price and he looks like the horse with the most potential in the race. 9/1+ is a very fair price and we'll play each-way and win.

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Afternoon Bets:

2.10 Kempton

Mister Rockandroll 3pts win @ 10/1 / 9/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Jolie De Vivre 3pts win @ 16/1 / 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)

I'm keen to take on the top three in the market here. Game Show will almost definitely improve for this surface, but he has tended to dwell and get behind in his races so far and hasn't looked the easiest. He is short on that basis around this tight 1m2f on the inner track. Classic Villager doesn't appear to me to have a great action for an all weather surface, and Forza Blacky's form so far looks only moderate. Mister Rockandroll is well drawn to attack here and he has shaped on both starts as if a step up to this kind if distance will suit him. I find it interesting Mark Johnston sends him down for this maiden on the all weather, especially given the selection's relation to Moonday Sun, who goes well on polytrack. He might be hard to pass if getting his own way in front.

Jolie De Vivre is by a sire whose progeny seem to be doing well on this surface. Notably, he has already produced Toast Of New York, who is close to top class and is markedly better on polytrack and tapeta than on grass. The selection posted an RPR67 on his second start, and was running on strongly at the finish over a mile, despite looking uncomfortable on Goodwood's undulations. He should appreciate the step up in trip today, and the change of surface could see an improved performance. The stable had a 25/1 third time out winner at Salisbury recently and I think 16/1 is too big.

2.40 Kempton

Rokbaan 1pt each-way @ 14/1 / 12/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Pact 1pt each-way @ 50/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Many of these look like longer term projects, with the notable exception of the favourite Strong Chemistry. He probably deserves his position in the market but I don't think he saw out his race strongly on debut, and I wonder if he might be vulnerable to something that sees the race out better. Most of the horses to have raced make absolutely no appeal, and there appears to be a couple of longer term projects amongst the unraced horses too. However, two stick out at the prices that I'd like to support each-way. Rokbaan represents an owner whose horses maintain a 20% strike rate at this track and he is by a sire of good two year olds. His trainer can get first time out winners at this track and I like the blend of speed and stamina in his pedigree. He appeals as the most likely unraced contender.

Pact represents a stable not renowned for two year olds, but she is very precociously bred and is well drawn in stall four. She is by a sire who has done well with his first crop, and has a strong all-weather influence on the dam's side of her pedigree - the prolific winner Hail The Chief (11 times an all weather winner, including a peak RPR of 102 at this track) being the most notable relative. I've seen races with this make up before - long term projects from bigger yards priced up ahead of more precociously bred horses from lesser stables - and sometimes it can pay to support horses with this kind of profile.

Profit & loss: day: -18.00 / month: -83.50 / year: +264.55

Sunday 21st September 2014

One selection for Sunday.

3.50 Hamilton Notnowdear 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Yorkidding didn't look the most straightforward on her debut; she is a big horse who might need time to develop and didn't look the most responsive under pressure, hanging in behind horses in the home straight at Thirsk. That might have been down to greenness, but on measure I'd be a little wary of her and am happy to oppose her today. Barbarous is a complete unknown as an unraced horse: he is entered in the Derby but that doesn't always equal a precocious sort capable of winning first time out.

Most of the others look poor, an exception being Ann Duffield's Notnowdear. I thought the selection made a really promising debut at Beverley, matching strides with three other decent horses for much of the race before fading in the home straight. That had the look of "first day at school" about it, with the horse keen early on and looking a bit green. He showed enough speed that Duffield stepped him back to six furlongs at Carlisle a week later, an experiment that didn't work, although he ran on late in the day. I like his profile here as an experienced horse who should lay up early without any problems, and who has had close on three weeks to develop since his second run. The booking of Duffield's go to jockey, P.J. McDonald, in place of the inexperienced 7lb claimer who rode the horse on his first two starts would suggest connections mean business here, and that this might not be a case of third run for a handicap mark. Duffield had a two year old winner yesterday at Ayr, and a first time out two year old beaten a head at Chester (S.P. 33/1) last week. It seems her juveniles are finding their feet, and it is also worth bearing in mind she has a 4/20 20% strike rate with juveniles at Hamilton over the course of the last five years. 16/1 looks a fair price about the selection with all of the above in mind, and we'll play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -65.50 / year: +282.55

Saturday 20th September 2014

Three races of interest at Ayr today, and we have four selections.

2.40 Ayr Lexington Abbey 2pts e/w AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 5th

The booking of a top Irish jockey, who rode the Ayr Gold Cup winner for this trainer two years ago, would suggest connections are confident of a big run from their three year old Lexington Abbey this afternoon. He is one of few horses in this line up who appears to be improving, and he is doing so at a decent rate judging on his last two runs. He looks a proper six furlong galloping type sprinter, and this course and distance looks made for him. He appears to be well drawn on the evidence of the last two days, and Smullen's assistance when it comes to getting a decent racing position is invaluable. Usually, I'd go against three year olds in this type of race, but last year's juveniles appear to be a particularly strong bunch. Added to that, this meeting is not usually run on ground as fast as this, and I think more gruelling conditions give older horses a definite advantage they won't enjoy today. Although Lexington Abbey didn't make it to Ascot or any of the early season meetings as a two year old, he seems to be more of a late summer type of horse who needed a bit of time. He has really come into his own just lately and I think this race sets up really well for him. He is a confident choice for a place at least.

3.50 Ayr Supplicant 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Skybet, Coral, guaranteed, 18/1 generally guaranteed - get 1/4 odds 5 places)

Supplicant is another three year old, who looks very well handicapped based on his 2013 form and seems to be coming back to himself late in the day this season. This is another race where generally it doesn't pay to follow three year olds, but again I'd suggest that faster ground makes this much less of a test than it usually is. The selection came back to something like his best form when 9/19 in the Great St. Wilfrid last time out, from a difficult draw which pitched him on the outside of the group he tacked over to. He has been relatively lightly raced this season and if he comes on from that run again, he would be in the ballpark of being able to produce the figures required to win this race. He has been dropped 2lb for that run, and the assistance of a 3lb claimer who has excelled this season is a real bonus. The selection has a very good draw in stall 22, and there seems to be plenty of confidence both in the market and in the comments of his handler, who seems to think he has him very well. Anything 18/1+ looks very fair

4.25 Ayr

Coincidentally 3pts win @ 11/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)

Two For Two 3pts win @ 11/1 (Paddy Power, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

I thought Coincidentally ran really well over course and distance two days ago when she landed place money for us, but I think a slightly more aggressive ride again might pay dividends. She is a horse who stays a mile strongly and I think Joe Fanning may have given her an easier time near the front than was required, meaning she was vulnerable to the turn of foot horse Anderiego. This is a slightly stronger contest but she carries less weight on her back today and the wily Franny Norton takes the ride. He can be just as good a fraction setter as Joe Fanning on his day, and I expect another big run from this improving filly at a double figure price.

If she is vulnerable to a finisher, it might be another O'Meara horse Two For Two. He won a course and distance handicap earlier this summer really impressively, although it wasn't as strong a contest. He has faced some tough tasks since and as a result is just 3lb above that last winning mark, running off OR99 today. We're taking a chance of sorts with the selection not having shown his form in a while, but that is factored into the price and first time cheekpieces are enlisted to sharpen the horse up. Danny Tudhope rides this track really well and 10/1+ looks too big.

Profit & loss: day: -11.50 / month: -59.50 / year: +288.55

Friday 19th September 2014

Just the one selection for Friday.

2.40 Ayr Mississippi 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 25/1 (Generally guaranteed)

I'm not too sure about the draw bias apparently displayed yesterday in the five furlong sprint, and either way I'm not keen on any of the high drawn horses here because many of them seem to be better over five furlongs. Mississippi hasn't been to Ayr before, but six furlongs on a galloping track and good to firm ground has brought his best results to this point in his career. He consistently runs above himself at tracks like Doncaster, Hamilton and the Curragh. The selection was off for nearly a year before a good reappearance in June and has probably needed a few runs to find his feet again at this level. He has run six times without troubling the judge but his latest effort behind Shore Step at Doncaster was his most promising for a while. He travelled well into the contest and just lacked a turn of foot at the business end of the race when it was needed. It looked a stronger handicap than todays, although the form is as yet untested. Mississippi looks a typical galloping type sprinter who should be suited by Ayr and I am interested that connections apply blinkers for the second time in his career. He travelled well in first time blinkers at Newmarket in 2012, but was patently unsuited by that track's undulations and was all over the shop in the dip (he raced at that track twice in a row and hung on both occasions). The handicapper has been kind in dropping the selection 1lb in the handicap after that Doncaster race, and I think this race offers potentially his ideal conditions: a strong pace, and stiff finish on a galloping track. If the draw bias doesn't affect the outcome too much, I expect him to go very close and 25/1 looks far too big.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -48.00 / year: +300.05

Thursday 18th September 2014

One selection for Kempton tonight.

9.10 Kempton Honey Meadow 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Blue Bounty might improve enough to take this, but he isn't the most resolute in a finish and might be worth taking on at such a short price. Maymyo looks better value at 3/1, but there is a sense that everything went his way last time out and he too is a bit keen, with a slight head carriage to boot - he might not be the type to follow up one good run with another and I'm happy to take him on too. Honey Meadow is experienced, and has 20 races behind her. She hasn't set the world on fire so far this year but she has had some tough tasks in class 4 and 5 events before being belatedly being dropped to class 6 two starts ago. She didn't show much, but was better last time out at Wolverhampton where she didn't get the run of the race in a contest where it paid to race prominently. That was against experienced older horses too, and this looks a much more winnable race tonight. She has been dropped 1lb by the handicapper and should get this run to suit despite being drawn wide (it doesn't make much difference over six furlongs here).  She is reunited with Martin Harley, the last jockey to win on her, and it is notable that a couple of the stable's horses have started running better than market expectations in recent days following a quiet spell (they are also 2/9 in September after going 0/12 in August). 8/1 looks very fair here and I fancy her to upset the less exposed horses.

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Afternoon Bets:

Day one of the Ayr festival, which I'm hoping is a decent three days for us.

Evening bets will follow before 5.30pm.

Total of 2pts cross each-way doubles on today's selections: ie. 1/2pt e/w double Live Dangerously / Coincidentally, and 1/2 pt e/w double Royal Bajan / Conincidentally. 

9/1 / 20/1 and 20/1 / 20/1 generally guaranteed.

2.40 Ayr

Live Dangerously 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)

Royal Bajan 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed)

This is a decent sprint for the grade, but there aren't many out and out front runners who will have their ideal conditions and as a result I think this will set up for something getting loose on the lead, or a well handicapped prominent racer. Live Dangerously has attracted some interesting mid afternoon money and represents very shrewd connections who target this meeting. You can forget his Musselburgh run on awfully tacky looking ground. He didn't handle the track or the surface and it's best forgotten. His previous Carlisle run in a seller was interesting: he duelled with Waffle for the lead over six furlongs, and had that rival in all sorts of trouble. However, he was softened up and caught late on over the stiff six furlongs. This is a horse who could be well handicapped and seems to be in decent heart at the moment, something which can't be said for many of his rivals. The step back to the minimum will be in his favour here and if he gets any sort of tow into the contest he could improve.

Royal Bajan is a course and distance winner with early pace to burn. He has been out of form lately, but comes here nice and fresh and is well handicapped off OR67. Connor Beasley takes a handy 3lb off and there's a good chance of an easy lead here. Time and again the same horses run well at this particular track, and I find it interesting James Given sends him north after a recent break. The jockey booking would suggest they have put a bit of thought into this and he could outclass these. 20/1 is too big.

3.10 Ayr Coincidentally 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Skybet, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

I think Coincidentally is an improving horse who gets a mile well and might end up getting up to 1m4f in time. For now, she appears to be on the up like her sibling Strictly Silver was at this time in his own career - as a four year old last year. The difference is Conincidentally looks better handicapped, even after a recent Epsom romp which probably wasn't attaching too much thought to. It does, however, suggest she is on good terms with herself and it offers an excuse as to why she bombed out two days later - conditions were gruelling at Epsom the day she won and having shown speed at Hamilton she simply got tired.

There isn't much pace on here and I like the booking of Joe Fanning. He should be able to take a prominent sit, and I like being on a horse guaranteed to get the trip who might get an easy time on the front end. A few of these have been on the go all season and look a bit more exposed. If Coincidentally was indeed just tired at Hamilton, she can resume on an upward curve here and land this decent handicap on her way to better things. She retains a Cambridgeshire entry and she could be much better than a mark of OR80 in time.

Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: -42.00 / year: +306.05

Wednesday 17th September 2014

The Kerry National looks a decent betting contest and I've had three interests.

4:40 Listowel - Guinness Kerry National Handicap Steeplechase (Grade A) 3m

Selections:

Usuel Smurfer 3pts win @ 10/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)

Heaney 3pts win @ 11/1 (Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

Cootamundra 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Quite how so many horses who are unproven at the three mile distance occupy such lofty positions in the market for this race I do not know. Alderwood, Burn and Turn, Usuel Smurfer, Klepht, Jacksonslady, Pass The Hat and Shanpallas are all without a win over today's distance and it puzzles me as to why some of them are where they are in the market.

 Usuel Smurfer is at least lightly raced, and has won over 2m6 1/2 furlongs in a 22 runner handicap at Fairyhouse, and I both like the form and think he is the one of the above named who can improve most for the step up in trip. His Galway run, headed when giving 21lb to the in form Aranhill Chief, looks strong and as a progressive second season chaser he has a decent profile for a race like this. 9/1+ looks a fair price and he is our first selection.

Heaney represents Tom Taaffe, and as a seven year old son of Flemensfirth he should be just starting to come into his own. He appears to have been laid out for this race and looks to be on a fair handicap mark of OR128. His Leopardstown and Fairyhouse runs from last season would give him every chance here, and I think it was a decent achievement for a horse to finish sixth in an Irish National on his third handicap start. He looks sure to bag a decent pot for Taaffe sooner rather than later, and with his ability to run well fresh confirmed at Fairyhouse, he looks worth supporting at double figure prices today.

Cootamundra is offered as an each-way selection at a much bigger price. He is an eleven year old, but three miles on good ground holds no fears as his Troytown win from 2013 would suggest. He put in two reasonable efforts at Galway and Killarney recently, when conditions weren't necessarily in his favour, and the return to three miles on a left handed track in a big field will suit him. Again there are no doubts about his stamina and he seems overpriced off a nice racing weight. He won the Troytown off OR125 and looks capable of getting competitive off today's mark of OR130. We'll play him to small stakes each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -35.00 / year: +313.05

Tuesday 16th September 2014

Just one bet for Tuesday.

2.10 Thirsk Pacngo 2pts each-way AND 3pts win @ 10/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)

Tim Easterby trained the winner of this contest last year and although Twilight Son will be a tough nut to crack off OR77, Pacngo looks good value at the prices and appears to be well handicapped off OR62. The selection has had three runs over the minimum trip, but has been outpaced on each occasion and looks almost certain to benefit from the extra furlong on her handicap debut here. She is well drawn to take a tow into the contest from Firgrove Bridge, who is likely to go forward from his draw, and that bit of pace in the race should soften up a few of her rivals in the closing stages. She carries just 8-4 on her back and I expect her to be doing her best work at the finish. She got an "interesting" ride at Ripon last time out and it seems connections wanted to get her a decent opening mark for Nurserys. They have succeeded in doing so and we'll play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: -26.00 / year: +322.05

Sunday 14th September 2014

Just one selection for Sunday - some cracking action today at the Curragh and Longchamp but only one I really like in the opening handicap in Ireland.

2.05 Curragh Zalty 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Zalty's second behind Line Of Reason over course and distance in June looks particularly strong form, and I think he will be hard to keep put of the frame on that form. He wasn't well drawn that day but appeared to improve for a strong pace over this trip. He hasn't really had those conditions since but I think this will have been his autumn target for some time, given the prize money of €90,000 for first place. He appears to be much better drawn in stall 16 today and although he is 6lbs higher than he was last time he raced here, he doesn't appear to have peaked off OR93 and as a four year old with just 15 career starts behind him there should be more to come. I expect he could be well backed on course and anything in double figures looks fair. 12/1 is certainly too big and we'll play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: +2.00 / month: -19.00 / year: +329.05

Saturday 13th September 2014

Just one for Saturday.

3.50 Ladbrokes - The St. Leger Stakes

Selection: Alexy My Boy, 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 18/1 / 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)

A decent sized field and a likely strong pace means this should set up nicely for a proper strong stayer and I like Alex My Boy at the prices. His Haydock run really caught my attention, and I think the Goodwood second came despite the track not really suiting him. The return to a galloping left handed track should see him improve again and my only worry would be that he has run a few times this season already. His trainer Mark Johnston, however, excels in keeping horses ticking over and he certainly trains them to be tough. Silvestre De Sousa takes the ride and we'll back him each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -21.00 / year: +327.05

Friday 12th September 2014

Like Ebor week, the St. Leger Festival has been a relatively quiet one in terms of points outlayed for our service. The experience of a few years running Strikeline has taught me not to go too heavy at times when it doesn't feel like the right thing to do, and as a result I've taken it relatively steady in a last couple of weeks. Two nice winners last week kept us in a kind of "maintenance" mode which has allowed us largely to keep the profits we've accumulated this year instead of eating into them, as we may have done in previous years. I don't feel obliged to put up 2/3 selections these days just because there's a big flat meeting on, and I'm actually quite pleased with how we've retained profits despite not being in what Patrickl Veitch would call a "Thunderstorm" period. He used the word to describe the occasions (usually lasting a week or two) when it seems easy to see opportunities and decent priced winners tend to "flow" every couple of days.

On a side note, Ayr is a fixture I'm looking forward to this year. I think it could be a big meeting for us, as I've kept a very close eye on the Scottish form (sprinters in particular) meaning it could be a busy week for us.

Just one bet for Friday.

3.45 Doncaster Sir Reginald 2pts each-way AND 3pts win @ 8/1 15/2 (Generally guaranteed)

Sir Reginald won this race last year, and it is important to note how well he saw out this intermediate trip having travelled well into the contest. Many of these will struggle with the distance, and I'd take on Danzeno in particular for that reason. He might have a class edge, but the selection is very much proven over course and distance, and he won't mind the ground either. Richard Fahey's horses are on fire at the moment and a couple of big winners here yesterday have done nothing to temper confidence in the selection. A handicap mark of OR92 should be just about ok, and I don't particularly mind the short break since his last won, given he has won after a longer absence in the past. He is reunited with Paul Hanagan, who won on him last year, and I he seems excellent value at the current prices. We'll play each-way and win to a decent stake.

Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: -15.00 / year: +333.05

Thursday 11th September 2014

Unfortunately Blue Bounty did exactly as we had suggested last night, travelling into the race well but not finding much in front. The surface didn't make much difference to him but there are two ways of looking at it: the winner was quite impressive and looks well handicapped.

One for this afternoon and a possible evening bet; details on the latter before 5.00pm either way.

3.15 Doncaster Kasb 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Bet 365, Sporting Bet, Ladbrokes, William Hill)

All the above pay 1/4 odds first 4 places - all except Sporting Bet guarantee the price.

Kasb won a traditionally strong maiden quite impressively at Newbury on his debut, before getting turned over at Pontefract on soft ground (by Bond's Girl who reopposes today) and flopping at Royal Ascot. However, he has since been gelded and stepped up in trip and I was impressed with his Newmarket win last time out. He looks like a much stronger horse and saw out the seven furlongs well, winning more comfortably than the margin suggests. He is in his owner's second colours today but there isn't much between them in the market and I think the selection is a much stronger stayer. The time of this race will be around 1 minute 18 seconds and a few of these look to speedy for that type of test. Kasb gave the impression that he is a horse with a touch of class about him at Newbury, and having seemingly thrived for his recent operation, he looks decent value here in a race that should be run to suit. That Newbury win came when the leaders went too fast and came back to him: the big field and strong pace here are exactly what will bring the best out in him. 12/1+ is very fair, but the advice is to take the 14/1 available with one of the above bookmakers who offer improved place terms.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -8.00 / year: +340.05

Wednesday 10th September 2014

Just one selection for this evening.

7.45 Kempton Blue Bounty 6pts win @ 8/1 / 15/2 (Generally guaranteed)

Much of Blue Bounty's form this year gives makes him look well handicapped, and he makes plenty of appeal tonight with the potential for further improvement on this surface. He travels strongly, but seems to be a bit awkward when he is asked to fully lengthen and let himself down on turf, so I'm interested to see if the forgiving polytrack surface suits him as well as it has suited others horses of this type in the past. His second behind Strike A Light at Yarmouth has been well franked by the winner, and the Beverley third in July behind Heska has been franked by the runner up who has since won twice. Blue Bounty gets a handy 4lb weight for age allowance, and looks really dangerous from bottom weight with a good draw in stall two. He should travel well into the contest, after that it's a question of whether he wants to go through with it mentally, or whether the forgiving nature of the surface is enough to allow him to use his stride fully. We'll play win only.

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Afternoon Bets:

One bet for this afternoon. A possible evening bet will follow before 5.15pm.

3.00 Doncaster Kingsgate Native 2pts each-way AND 3pts win @ 10/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, William Hill, independents, guaranteed)

This is a decent looking listed contest but it looks worth taking many of the principals on. I'd expect this contest to be run somewhere around 58.5 - 59.5 seconds looking at the current ground conditions and that gives Reckless Abandon and Steps a lot to do. Reckless Abandon has never won a race in that kind of time and Steps is probably a bit too slow as well, particularly with 10-0 to carry on his back. Kingsgate Native is a horse who should be ideally suited by this trip and test. He isn't as good as he once was, but he can generally be relied upon to run his race these days and he does pop up when things are in his favour. He has a Group 2 win to his name as recently as last year and a series of decent performances to his name already in 2014. I don't think Robert Cowell's stable had the best of summers but his horses have seemed a bit better in the past month and the selection's Beverley run last week was a decent won on a track which I don't think suited. The opposition should hold no fears here and with Ryan Moore in the plate, he makes loads of appeal at a double figure price. We'll have a decent stake each-way and win - anything 9/1+ is very good value.

Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: -2.00 / year: +348.05

Tuesday 9th September 2014

Two bets for this afternoon - an evening bet may follow before 5.30pm.

1pt each-way double on today's selections, @ 9/1 and 12/1 generally guaranteed.

2.20 Leicester Kisumu 4pts win @ 10/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)

2.50 Leicester Quick Defence 4pts win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)

September is traditionally a month when it is possible to follow Khalid Abdullah's two year olds blind and make a profit. Many of his horses are bred to come in to their own as autumn two year olds, and such is their quality that they often improve again as three year olds and older horses. There are good examples of Abdullah bred two year olds going off a decent prices and being good enough to get the job done first time out, and I like the pair Sir Michael Stoute sends to Leicester today based on their breeding. I have already alluded to the fact that first time out horses can offer value at this time of year in certain circumstances, and neither of the short priced favourites in this pair of seven furlong maidens look unbeatable. Outlaw Country looks a certainty on ratings in the 2.20, but he didn't appear to be closing the gap between he and Dougal / Justice Good at Newmarket on his debut. He has had close on four months off since that debut at this stage, suggesting that he has had physical problems, and if he is as good as his entries suggest I'm not sure they'd be sending to him to Leicester on a Tuesday. He looks worth taking on to me, and Kisumu looks a worthy rival on paper. His brother Redwood won first time out as a two year old and went on to be very decent on fast turf (won a U.S. Grade 1 on turf). Conditions look perfect for him on breeding and although Stoutes have been coming on for the run, his yard is 4/9 here for the season and he is 5/23 with two year olds in the last five years.

Ryan Moore is booked for Quick Defence in the 2.50pm, with Abdullah's retained jockey on the odds on favourite. Dancetrack didn't do anything quickly first time out and has a bit of a head carriage about him. He might well come on a ton and win this handy, but he isn't for me at odds on and I'll take him on with the stable's apparent second string. He is more speedily bred again and should be up to putting in a big performance first time up at this stage of the year. Everything Ryan Moore rides is worth keeping an eye on at this stage of the season and I see no reason why the selection is as big as 12/1.

We'll back the pair win only and include them in an each-way double.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +11.00 / year: +361.05

Monday 8th September 2014

Just one selection for Monday.

5.00 Brighton Cueca 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Skybet, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Coral, guaranteed)

This looks a typically weak 0-60 and it's no surprise to see the Stuart Williams handicap debutant, along with a Mick Appleby switcher and a moderate Mick Channon filly with recent form all strong in the market. Sometimes in this type of event it pays to look beyond the obvious and I think Cueca is overpriced at her current odds. She has been well supported on a couple of occasions but has failed to deliver so far in nine career starts. She bombed out at Kempton latest but it was interesting to note that she has a nice bit of size about her and she travelled very well into the race before she got crowded and backed out of it. Indeed, upon watching the replay of the race it is noticeable she turns her head, shying away from her rivals when she finds herself in amongst horses with some kickback in her face. She has already run better than this basement handicap mark and the application of first time blinkers might help a horse like this who seems to be a bit nervy when racing amongst horses. 3lb claimer Danny Brock, who is in the form of his life, takes the ride and the stable recently had a 50/1 shot run into second at Kempton in first time blinkers. Her stamina for a mile has to be taken on trust but if the headgear brings about any improvement, she might be good enough to defeat moderate rivals. 12/1+ is a fair price.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +21.00 / year: +371.05

Saturday 6th September 2014

Two selections for Saturday. 

Please note we will not be betting tomorrow: next horse racing e-mail will be on Monday (Football selections will be sent later today).

2.20 Kempton Battalion 5pts win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Battalion looked at least pattern class at the start of the season but has disappointed on his last two starts. He has been given a decent break since and has gone well fresh in the past, which makes me interested in him at a double figure price here. He shouldn't face any competition for the lead in this field and in recent meetings, front runners have performed quite well. This race will suit his style and the big question is whether polytrack is a surface he will take too. He is the one horse in this line up who could improve quite a bit from his current rating and he retains Group 1 and Group 2 entries this autumn. Tom Queally rides this track well and we'll back him win only with seven lining up.

2.55 Kempton Musaddas 5pts win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Saeed Bin Suroor is probably the best trainer of polytrack horses around these days, especially at Kempton where he boasts a pretty incredible 28% strike rate with all horses returning a level stakes profit of +41.41 to the unit stake. He has every chance of winning the London Mile here with Musaddas, who looks well handicapped off OR86. He is yet to win on polytrack and it would be possible to accuse him of being a bit of a twicer, but he needs a strongly run race to show his best and he doesn't always get that here. Sixteen runners in this mile handicap should help in that regard today, and I think his recent third behind Sloane Avenue could be very strong form. He gave two very unexposed three year olds 6lb and finished his race off well enough to suggest there is more improvement in him. Connections have also removed the hood which I feel is key. He hasn't always looked the most focused and the hood might just have relaxed him too much. He has an action tailor made for this surface and I think if he puts it all in, he can land this valuable handicap at a decent price. Again we'll play win only.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +26.00 / year: +376.05

Friday 5th September 2014

Two selections for Friday.

3.35 Haydock Mishaal 5pts win @ 13/2 / 6/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Mishaal retains an Ayr Gold Cup entry, an engagement for which he'll need at least a couple of penalties to make the cut. The selection has improved in this his four year old season, and has displayed a high cruising speed over seven and eight furlongs on his last three starts, winning once and finishing second twice. His second placed finish at Chester really grabbed my attention. He has pressured for the lead for a very long way on a strong pace, yet still managed to finish second. The horse he raced with is a good seven furlong specialist at that track, but faded out of it after sitting on that speed. I think there is a good chance of further improvement for the step back to six furlongs. The selection's cruising speed will be of more use to him, and his uncomplicated running style will be suited to this track. The jockey booking of Danny Tudhope is a positive; he rides Haydock very well. Mishaal could take this on the way to better things, 

5.45 Newcastle Mitchum 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 / 20/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Mitchum is an awkward horse who needs a straight, galloping track and good ground in order to show his best form. His record over six and seven furlongs with these conditions is actually quite solid since he broke his duck here last summer. His Redcar second in a seller earlier this year was a decent run, and with ideal conditions on his side today and his stable in form after a recent 14/1 winner, he looks worth supporting. He might be well drawn close to the rail if the race develops there. A recent pipe opener at Catterick after a break can safely be dismissed owing to that track's sharp undulating nature, and his handicap mark of OR54 is a career low - he has twice gone close to defying higher marks this year. At the prices he looks well worth an each-way and win interest.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +36.00 / year: +386.05

Thursday 4th September 2014

One selection for this evening.

6.40 Wolverhampton Hard Run 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 / 9/1 (Generally guaranteed)

At this time of the season in particular, horses having their first run in maidens can sometimes represent good value. Often, horses from powerful yards or representing powerful connections are underpriced because they have posted the best ratings, but usually those that haven't won are not stable stars. Ramshackle and Nathr both fit that category and neither is proven on this tapeta surface. They are taken on with Robert Cowell's 4yo newcomer Hard Run. The selection's breeding suggests artificial surfaces will suit him, and the stable had a first time out two year old winner today. They have taken the trouble to book Andrea Atzeni for the ride and looking at the selection's relatives, he ought to be capable of winning a moderate maiden at least. His sales price doubled as a yearling and, although he has obviously had problems which have kept him off the track, he has been entered in a winnable maiden for older horses. I think double figure prices are too big, and we'll back him each-way and win, which saves our stake in the event that he runs into a place.

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Afternoon Bets: 


Barnmore won very impressively last night, and there is more to come from him on the all weather.

One afternoon bet, and a possible evening bet released before 5.30pm.

2.30 Haydock Oddysey 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Skybet, Bet Victor, Sporting Bet, William Hill, Independents)

Oddysey has to carry top weight here but she has done so in the past, carrying as much as 10-0 on her back when winning, which suggests giving weight to inferior horses isn't a problem for her. This looks a handicap bigger on quantity than quality, and I'd be keen to oppose the three year olds, who have issues with economy of energy use (Starlight Serenade), class (Hostile Fire may not be as good as his form figures suggest) and trip (We'll Shake Hands). Hala Hala looks unconvincing in a finish. The selection looks best of the older horses and this is a weaker contest than the one she finished sixth in last time out. She is drawn wide, but seems to enjoy challenging on the outer, after being held up, which should be no problem for her here. A good pace is on the cards and I'd expect that to help this course and distance winner. Anything 14/1+ is too big and we'll play each-way and win

Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: +46.00 / year: +396.05

Wednesday 4th September 2014

Just one for this evening.

7.40 Kempton Barnmore 6pts win @ 9/2 (Coral, guaranteed, 4/1 generally guaranteed) WON @ 9/2 sp

Branmore is a dual course and distance winner who would appear to have his ideal conditions for this contest. A bit of pace and a big field suits him well, and the assistance of 3lb claimer Charlie Bishop, who knows him well, is also a positive. Many of these look out of form (Dana's Present, Flamborough Breeze) or have question marks as regards trip or surface (Exceedexpectations is probably better at 7f, Anton Chigurh hasn't raced on polytrack). Barnmore suffered a bit of a form dip after winning twice early in the summer, but he ran much better over ten furlongs here last time - the inside track probably doesn't suit this big horse and a mile is probably his optimum. With a decent pace on the cards this evening, the selection should get a nice tow into the race and from stall two a good position on the rails shouldn't be hard to get. I think he could be better than this class eventually and he is taken to land the spoils. Anything 4/1+ is fair.

Profit & loss: day: +27.00 / month: +58.00 / year: +408.05

Tuesday 2nd September 2014

One selection for Kempton this evening.

5.50 Kempton Sheer Poetry 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Coral, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Mike Murphy's horses have a good record at Kempton. He is a trainer whose representatives all seem to travel sweetly on artificial surfaces, and the selection seemed quite at home around here on her debut last year when she acquitted herself quite well. Despite being by a sire who imparts a stamina influence, this filly has a nice cruising speed which should enable her to get competitive on her first polytrack start since that debut. She has been running consistently well in better races than this over the summer, and although she hasn't threatened the judge this is enough of a step down in class to make her of interest. Her recent Leicester sixth was a fair effort and it was noticeable that she travelled into the race well, but didn't find much for pressure. I think this more forgiving surface could suit her better and if she improves something like 5lb for it, that should be good enough for a place at least. The excellent Luke Morris is booked for the ride and she is drawn ok in stall eight. This ten furlong distance is raced around the inside track, so horses with a decent cruising speed tend to have an advantage. Lola Montez would be the danger given that fact, but she doesn't look straightforward. Anything 9/1 or better looks fair about Sheer Poetry and we'll play each-way and win.

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Afternoon Bets:

Zipedeedodah won more impressively than the margin suggested yesterday.

One selection at Hamilton, a possible evening bet will follow before 5.00pm.

5.00 Hamilton Salavatore Fury 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)

Keith Dalgleish has already had a winner and a 2nd at today's Hamilton meeting and his representative in the sprint holds excellent claims in my view. The times suggests the ground has dried out and that will suit the selection perfectly. His run in a strong sprint handicap at Goodwood last month looks like decent form in the context of this race, and he seems to have room to manoeuvre from a handicap mark of OR72 based on that run. He is drawn well to take a tow into this contest from Baron Run and Grand Canaria Queen, and I'd make him shorter than his current odds - perhaps around 13/2. He may end up being backed on course; we'll play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +31.00 / year: +381.05

Monday 1st September 2014

Just one selection for Monday.

4.40 Leicester Zipedeedodah 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 8/1 (Bet 365, Betfred, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, guaranteed)

We supported Zipedeedodah on his penultimate run at Beverley, when he was well backed and showed bright speed to get competitive before fading out of contention on what was his second career start. He was well supported that day, and he looks like a scopey two year old who should improve as the season goes on. His run behind Burnt Sugar at Lingfield last time was ok, but he didn't appear to travel as well on that surface as he had done on turf, and I think the return to good to firm ground on a natural surface will suit him better. He is precociously bred and is by a sire whose first two year olds have been doing well.  It is worth noting that his Beverley run came in a maiden that has worked out better than most of the other form on offer here. This looks a relatively weak affair, but the selection is one of the few potential improvers should he see his race out a bit better on this less demanding track. A capable 5lb claimer has been booked and we'll play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: +36.00 / month: +36.00 / year: +386.05

Saturday 30th August 2014

Three races of interest for us this Saturday, all at Sandown.

2.05 Sandown

Elusivity 4pts win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Asian Trader 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed - Skybet pay 5 places guaranteed)

This is a typically tight sprint handicap and 8/1 the field says it all. However, I like two at the prices. Elusivity is now with Peter Crate, and he has shown in the past that he handles this track and five furlongs on soft ground. A strong pace here will play into his hands and he is well handicapped based on his last run here in a Group 3 off OR106 when he was hampered early and finished well (no chance). He seems to be able to run well after a break and his run behind Monsieur Joe at York earlier this year gives him a favourites chance here. He is well drawn and should have a pace to run at. 8/1 looks very fair.

I'm very tempted by Asian Trader at the prices. I was extremely impressed by his Nottingham win and I think this track, trip and ground will bring out the best in him. He also looks well drawn and should be suited by the likely strong pace. I'm not sure why he is this price - perhaps the 7lb claiming jockey explains it. This horse responded to inexperienced handling at Nottingham, however, and although he is a hold up ride I think you just sit and let him go at his own pace, and encourage him to run on late. the form of that Nottingham race looks particularly strong and he won it easily. The handicapper has only put him up 4lb and the two month break is in his favour. He is too big at the prices and we'll play each-way and win.

3.15 Sandown Fintry 8pts win @ 85/40 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 2/1 generally guaranteed) - WON

My horse tracker note on Fintry contain two words - "Top class!" (including the exclamation). I think she is a Group 1 filly and I can't resist the opportunity to back her at 2/1+ in a very average looking Group 3 this afternoon. She destroyed La Hoguette in the Prix De Sandringham in June - that rival finished an unlucky close fourth (promoted to third) in the Prix Jean Prat (Group 1) next time out. The selection has been off with a bad cough since, and that explains the price drift to these very backable odds. Bookmakers are falling over themselves to lay her this morning but the opposition quite simply look a class or two below her and I've had a decent stake on her. My judgement call is that she should be 11/8 here regardless of her recent issues. Andre Fabre has spotted a very good opportunity to pick up a decent prize in my view, and I think she should justify favouritism without difficulty.

3.50 Sandown Tinghir 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (generally guaranteed)

David Lanigan's stable are in very good form right now and his Tinghir is taken to continue their recent upward curve. He is a well bred son of Dansili who is probably best at ten furlongs on rain softened ground. A big issue with him, however, is that he has often lacked concentration during his races and numerous pieces of video evidence show him veering left or right when he finds some space and not using his energy economically. His recent run at Newmarket behind Clon Brulee is a prime example of this. The application of first time blinkers this afternoon might just make all the difference. I think he could improve quite a bit if the headgear works - he is related to some very good pattern class horses at around this distance and I don't believe he has yet reached his potential. He runs off a mark of OR91 today and he has already proved better than that on the ratings he has posted to date. Clearly there is risk attached with the dependence on his improving for the blinds, but at a double figure price it is one that is sufficiently factored in to the price to make him of interest.

Profit & loss: day: +3.00 / month: -35.75 / year: +350.05

Friday 29th August 2014

Just one selection for Friday.

3.50 Thirsk Mehdi 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Totesport, betfred, Bet Victor, Racebets.com, guaranteed)

Richard Fahey's sprinters returning from an absence of 100+ days perform pretty much as the market expects, with a 0.97 a/e ratio on all runners fitting this criteria. Clearly, getting one ready after an absence is no issue, and it is also interesting that around 30% of those runners placed. Mehdi has come from Dandy Nicholls, and he seems to be on an Ayr Gold Cup prep, looking at his entries.  Track trip and ground should be find here and he is quite well handicapped on his best form. Jack Garritty has been given the ride, and the 5lb he takes off looks very worthwhile, given that the selection is a fairly uncomplicated ride (bounce and go). There are question marks about him, especially the absence, and he clearly hasn't been the easiest to train, but his entries interest me and he would want to be close to full fitness at this time of year if Ayr is indeed the target. He is drawn quite well and might just have a class edge on this lot, many of whom seem to have done their winning for the year. I think anything around 14/1+ is very fair.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -38.75 / year: +347.05

Thursday 28th August 2014

An each-way return was the best we could manage on Ebor day, with Van Percy eventually outgunned into second by Mutual Regard. All in all our selections ran well over the course of the week and I was happy with our approach.

A Scoop 6 announcement will follow.

Just one bet for today.

6.20 Hamilton Henpecked 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Paddy Power, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

Most of these don't look particularly well treated. Scottish Star might be an exception, but the bounce factor could potentially scupper him having put in a big effort off the back of an absence and, added to that, you don't get rich backing horses with this profile at short prices against gnarled handicappers. Coincidentally appeals as the best of the short prices, but again may not be best handicapped after her recent win, the form of which is open to interpretation. At a bigger price, Henpecked is selected. She has attracted support at prices this morning. she hasn't had much racing for a four year old, and connections mentioned that they had given her plenty of time when she won on her penultimate start at Ayr. She idled close home that day and was probably value for better than the winning margin. Having failed to follow up, she has been given a break but she ought to remain competitive off a mark of OR60. A good 3lb claimer is enlisted to take more weight off her back, and if she is ready to run as the money suggests, she is no 14/1 shot here. Track trip and ground should all be fine and we'll support her each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: +3.00 / month: -32.75 / year: +353.05