2.40 Ayr Mississippi 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 25/1 (Generally guaranteed)
I'm not too sure about the draw bias apparently displayed yesterday in the five furlong sprint, and either way I'm not keen on any of the high drawn horses here because many of them seem to be better over five furlongs. Mississippi hasn't been to Ayr before, but six furlongs on a galloping track and good to firm ground has brought his best results to this point in his career. He consistently runs above himself at tracks like Doncaster, Hamilton and the Curragh. The selection was off for nearly a year before a good reappearance in June and has probably needed a few runs to find his feet again at this level. He has run six times without troubling the judge but his latest effort behind Shore Step at Doncaster was his most promising for a while. He travelled well into the contest and just lacked a turn of foot at the business end of the race when it was needed. It looked a stronger handicap than todays, although the form is as yet untested. Mississippi looks a typical galloping type sprinter who should be suited by Ayr and I am interested that connections apply blinkers for the second time in his career. He travelled well in first time blinkers at Newmarket in 2012, but was patently unsuited by that track's undulations and was all over the shop in the dip (he raced at that track twice in a row and hung on both occasions). The handicapper has been kind in dropping the selection 1lb in the handicap after that Doncaster race, and I think this race offers potentially his ideal conditions: a strong pace, and stiff finish on a galloping track. If the draw bias doesn't affect the outcome too much, I expect him to go very close and 25/1 looks far too big.
Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -48.00 / year: +300.05
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