3.50 Thirsk Mehdi 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Totesport, betfred, Bet Victor, Racebets.com, guaranteed)
Richard Fahey's sprinters returning from an absence of 100+ days perform pretty much as the market expects, with a 0.97 a/e ratio on all runners fitting this criteria. Clearly, getting one ready after an absence is no issue, and it is also interesting that around 30% of those runners placed. Mehdi has come from Dandy Nicholls, and he seems to be on an Ayr Gold Cup prep, looking at his entries. Track trip and ground should be find here and he is quite well handicapped on his best form. Jack Garritty has been given the ride, and the 5lb he takes off looks very worthwhile, given that the selection is a fairly uncomplicated ride (bounce and go). There are question marks about him, especially the absence, and he clearly hasn't been the easiest to train, but his entries interest me and he would want to be close to full fitness at this time of year if Ayr is indeed the target. He is drawn quite well and might just have a class edge on this lot, many of whom seem to have done their winning for the year. I think anything around 14/1+ is very fair.
Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -38.75 / year: +347.05
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