The progeny of Duke Of Marmalade perform well on polytrack, and it is perhaps no surprise that Royal Preserve's best form to date. Indeed, his best run came over course and distance when he split Crystal Lake and Billingsgate in a tight finish back in May. That contest has worked out well, with the winner, second and fourth all having won and improved markedly since. Based on that performance, Royal Preserve looks very well handicapped off OR76. The caveat is his disappointing Haydock performance next time out, and the fact that he has been off the track since. However, that is most certainly factored into the price and he looks like the horse with the most potential in the race. 9/1+ is a very fair price and we'll play each-way and win.
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Afternoon Bets:
2.10 Kempton
Mister Rockandroll 3pts win @ 10/1 / 9/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Jolie De Vivre 3pts win @ 16/1 / 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)
I'm keen to take on the top three in the market here. Game Show will almost definitely improve for this surface, but he has tended to dwell and get behind in his races so far and hasn't looked the easiest. He is short on that basis around this tight 1m2f on the inner track. Classic Villager doesn't appear to me to have a great action for an all weather surface, and Forza Blacky's form so far looks only moderate. Mister Rockandroll is well drawn to attack here and he has shaped on both starts as if a step up to this kind if distance will suit him. I find it interesting Mark Johnston sends him down for this maiden on the all weather, especially given the selection's relation to Moonday Sun, who goes well on polytrack. He might be hard to pass if getting his own way in front.
Jolie De Vivre is by a sire whose progeny seem to be doing well on this surface. Notably, he has already produced Toast Of New York, who is close to top class and is markedly better on polytrack and tapeta than on grass. The selection posted an RPR67 on his second start, and was running on strongly at the finish over a mile, despite looking uncomfortable on Goodwood's undulations. He should appreciate the step up in trip today, and the change of surface could see an improved performance. The stable had a 25/1 third time out winner at Salisbury recently and I think 16/1 is too big.
2.40 Kempton
Rokbaan 1pt each-way @ 14/1 / 12/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
Pact 1pt each-way @ 50/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
Many of these look like longer term projects, with the notable exception of the favourite Strong Chemistry. He probably deserves his position in the market but I don't think he saw out his race strongly on debut, and I wonder if he might be vulnerable to something that sees the race out better. Most of the horses to have raced make absolutely no appeal, and there appears to be a couple of longer term projects amongst the unraced horses too. However, two stick out at the prices that I'd like to support each-way. Rokbaan represents an owner whose horses maintain a 20% strike rate at this track and he is by a sire of good two year olds. His trainer can get first time out winners at this track and I like the blend of speed and stamina in his pedigree. He appeals as the most likely unraced contender.
Pact represents a stable not renowned for two year olds, but she is very precociously bred and is well drawn in stall four. She is by a sire who has done well with his first crop, and has a strong all-weather influence on the dam's side of her pedigree - the prolific winner Hail The Chief (11 times an all weather winner, including a peak RPR of 102 at this track) being the most notable relative. I've seen races with this make up before - long term projects from bigger yards priced up ahead of more precociously bred horses from lesser stables - and sometimes it can pay to support horses with this kind of profile.
Profit & loss: day: -18.00 / month: -83.50 / year: +264.55
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