Three races of interest at Ayr today, and we have four selections.
2.40 Ayr Lexington Abbey 2pts e/w AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 5th
The booking of a top Irish jockey, who rode the Ayr Gold Cup winner for this trainer two years ago, would suggest connections are confident of a big run from their three year old Lexington Abbey this afternoon. He is one of few horses in this line up who appears to be improving, and he is doing so at a decent rate judging on his last two runs. He looks a proper six furlong galloping type sprinter, and this course and distance looks made for him. He appears to be well drawn on the evidence of the last two days, and Smullen's assistance when it comes to getting a decent racing position is invaluable. Usually, I'd go against three year olds in this type of race, but last year's juveniles appear to be a particularly strong bunch. Added to that, this meeting is not usually run on ground as fast as this, and I think more gruelling conditions give older horses a definite advantage they won't enjoy today. Although Lexington Abbey didn't make it to Ascot or any of the early season meetings as a two year old, he seems to be more of a late summer type of horse who needed a bit of time. He has really come into his own just lately and I think this race sets up really well for him. He is a confident choice for a place at least.
Supplicant is another three year old, who looks very well handicapped based on his 2013 form and seems to be coming back to himself late in the day this season. This is another race where generally it doesn't pay to follow three year olds, but again I'd suggest that faster ground makes this much less of a test than it usually is. The selection came back to something like his best form when 9/19 in the Great St. Wilfrid last time out, from a difficult draw which pitched him on the outside of the group he tacked over to. He has been relatively lightly raced this season and if he comes on from that run again, he would be in the ballpark of being able to produce the figures required to win this race. He has been dropped 2lb for that run, and the assistance of a 3lb claimer who has excelled this season is a real bonus. The selection has a very good draw in stall 22, and there seems to be plenty of confidence both in the market and in the comments of his handler, who seems to think he has him very well. Anything 18/1+ looks very fair
4.25 Ayr
Coincidentally 3pts win @ 11/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)
Two For Two 3pts win @ 11/1 (Paddy Power, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)
I thought Coincidentally ran really well over course and distance two days ago when she landed place money for us, but I think a slightly more aggressive ride again might pay dividends. She is a horse who stays a mile strongly and I think Joe Fanning may have given her an easier time near the front than was required, meaning she was vulnerable to the turn of foot horse Anderiego. This is a slightly stronger contest but she carries less weight on her back today and the wily Franny Norton takes the ride. He can be just as good a fraction setter as Joe Fanning on his day, and I expect another big run from this improving filly at a double figure price.
If she is vulnerable to a finisher, it might be another O'Meara horse Two For Two. He won a course and distance handicap earlier this summer really impressively, although it wasn't as strong a contest. He has faced some tough tasks since and as a result is just 3lb above that last winning mark, running off OR99 today. We're taking a chance of sorts with the selection not having shown his form in a while, but that is factored into the price and first time cheekpieces are enlisted to sharpen the horse up. Danny Tudhope rides this track really well and 10/1+ looks too big.
Profit & loss: day: -11.50 / month: -59.50 / year: +288.55
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