2.05 Sandown
Elusivity 4pts win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Asian Trader 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed - Skybet pay 5 places guaranteed)
This is a typically tight sprint handicap and 8/1 the field says it all. However, I like two at the prices. Elusivity is now with Peter Crate, and he has shown in the past that he handles this track and five furlongs on soft ground. A strong pace here will play into his hands and he is well handicapped based on his last run here in a Group 3 off OR106 when he was hampered early and finished well (no chance). He seems to be able to run well after a break and his run behind Monsieur Joe at York earlier this year gives him a favourites chance here. He is well drawn and should have a pace to run at. 8/1 looks very fair.
I'm very tempted by Asian Trader at the prices. I was extremely impressed by his Nottingham win and I think this track, trip and ground will bring out the best in him. He also looks well drawn and should be suited by the likely strong pace. I'm not sure why he is this price - perhaps the 7lb claiming jockey explains it. This horse responded to inexperienced handling at Nottingham, however, and although he is a hold up ride I think you just sit and let him go at his own pace, and encourage him to run on late. the form of that Nottingham race looks particularly strong and he won it easily. The handicapper has only put him up 4lb and the two month break is in his favour. He is too big at the prices and we'll play each-way and win.
3.15 Sandown Fintry 8pts win @ 85/40 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 2/1 generally guaranteed) - WON
My horse tracker note on Fintry contain two words - "Top class!" (including the exclamation). I think she is a Group 1 filly and I can't resist the opportunity to back her at 2/1+ in a very average looking Group 3 this afternoon. She destroyed La Hoguette in the Prix De Sandringham in June - that rival finished an unlucky close fourth (promoted to third) in the Prix Jean Prat (Group 1) next time out. The selection has been off with a bad cough since, and that explains the price drift to these very backable odds. Bookmakers are falling over themselves to lay her this morning but the opposition quite simply look a class or two below her and I've had a decent stake on her. My judgement call is that she should be 11/8 here regardless of her recent issues. Andre Fabre has spotted a very good opportunity to pick up a decent prize in my view, and I think she should justify favouritism without difficulty.
3.50 Sandown Tinghir 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (generally guaranteed)
David Lanigan's stable are in very good form right now and his Tinghir is taken to continue their recent upward curve. He is a well bred son of Dansili who is probably best at ten furlongs on rain softened ground. A big issue with him, however, is that he has often lacked concentration during his races and numerous pieces of video evidence show him veering left or right when he finds some space and not using his energy economically. His recent run at Newmarket behind Clon Brulee is a prime example of this. The application of first time blinkers this afternoon might just make all the difference. I think he could improve quite a bit if the headgear works - he is related to some very good pattern class horses at around this distance and I don't believe he has yet reached his potential. He runs off a mark of OR91 today and he has already proved better than that on the ratings he has posted to date. Clearly there is risk attached with the dependence on his improving for the blinds, but at a double figure price it is one that is sufficiently factored in to the price to make him of interest.
Profit & loss: day: +3.00 / month: -35.75 / year: +350.05
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