3.50 Hamilton Notnowdear 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Yorkidding didn't look the most straightforward on her debut; she is a big horse who might need time to develop and didn't look the most responsive under pressure, hanging in behind horses in the home straight at Thirsk. That might have been down to greenness, but on measure I'd be a little wary of her and am happy to oppose her today. Barbarous is a complete unknown as an unraced horse: he is entered in the Derby but that doesn't always equal a precocious sort capable of winning first time out.
Most of the others look poor, an exception being Ann Duffield's Notnowdear. I thought the selection made a really promising debut at Beverley, matching strides with three other decent horses for much of the race before fading in the home straight. That had the look of "first day at school" about it, with the horse keen early on and looking a bit green. He showed enough speed that Duffield stepped him back to six furlongs at Carlisle a week later, an experiment that didn't work, although he ran on late in the day. I like his profile here as an experienced horse who should lay up early without any problems, and who has had close on three weeks to develop since his second run. The booking of Duffield's go to jockey, P.J. McDonald, in place of the inexperienced 7lb claimer who rode the horse on his first two starts would suggest connections mean business here, and that this might not be a case of third run for a handicap mark. Duffield had a two year old winner yesterday at Ayr, and a first time out two year old beaten a head at Chester (S.P. 33/1) last week. It seems her juveniles are finding their feet, and it is also worth bearing in mind she has a 4/20 20% strike rate with juveniles at Hamilton over the course of the last five years. 16/1 looks a fair price about the selection with all of the above in mind, and we'll play each-way and win.
Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -65.50 / year: +282.55
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