Unfortunately Blue Bounty did exactly as we had suggested last night, travelling into the race well but not finding much in front. The surface didn't make much difference to him but there are two ways of looking at it: the winner was quite impressive and looks well handicapped.
One for this afternoon and a possible evening bet; details on the latter before 5.00pm either way.
3.15 Doncaster Kasb 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Bet 365, Sporting Bet, Ladbrokes, William Hill)
All the above pay 1/4 odds first 4 places - all except Sporting Bet guarantee the price.
Kasb won a traditionally strong maiden quite impressively at Newbury on his debut, before getting turned over at Pontefract on soft ground (by Bond's Girl who reopposes today) and flopping at Royal Ascot. However, he has since been gelded and stepped up in trip and I was impressed with his Newmarket win last time out. He looks like a much stronger horse and saw out the seven furlongs well, winning more comfortably than the margin suggests. He is in his owner's second colours today but there isn't much between them in the market and I think the selection is a much stronger stayer. The time of this race will be around 1 minute 18 seconds and a few of these look to speedy for that type of test. Kasb gave the impression that he is a horse with a touch of class about him at Newbury, and having seemingly thrived for his recent operation, he looks decent value here in a race that should be run to suit. That Newbury win came when the leaders went too fast and came back to him: the big field and strong pace here are exactly what will bring the best out in him. 12/1+ is very fair, but the advice is to take the 14/1 available with one of the above bookmakers who offer improved place terms.
Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -8.00 / year: +340.05
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