Thursday 18th September 2014

One selection for Kempton tonight.

9.10 Kempton Honey Meadow 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Blue Bounty might improve enough to take this, but he isn't the most resolute in a finish and might be worth taking on at such a short price. Maymyo looks better value at 3/1, but there is a sense that everything went his way last time out and he too is a bit keen, with a slight head carriage to boot - he might not be the type to follow up one good run with another and I'm happy to take him on too. Honey Meadow is experienced, and has 20 races behind her. She hasn't set the world on fire so far this year but she has had some tough tasks in class 4 and 5 events before being belatedly being dropped to class 6 two starts ago. She didn't show much, but was better last time out at Wolverhampton where she didn't get the run of the race in a contest where it paid to race prominently. That was against experienced older horses too, and this looks a much more winnable race tonight. She has been dropped 1lb by the handicapper and should get this run to suit despite being drawn wide (it doesn't make much difference over six furlongs here).  She is reunited with Martin Harley, the last jockey to win on her, and it is notable that a couple of the stable's horses have started running better than market expectations in recent days following a quiet spell (they are also 2/9 in September after going 0/12 in August). 8/1 looks very fair here and I fancy her to upset the less exposed horses.

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Afternoon Bets:

Day one of the Ayr festival, which I'm hoping is a decent three days for us.

Evening bets will follow before 5.30pm.

Total of 2pts cross each-way doubles on today's selections: ie. 1/2pt e/w double Live Dangerously / Coincidentally, and 1/2 pt e/w double Royal Bajan / Conincidentally. 

9/1 / 20/1 and 20/1 / 20/1 generally guaranteed.

2.40 Ayr

Live Dangerously 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)

Royal Bajan 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally guaranteed)

This is a decent sprint for the grade, but there aren't many out and out front runners who will have their ideal conditions and as a result I think this will set up for something getting loose on the lead, or a well handicapped prominent racer. Live Dangerously has attracted some interesting mid afternoon money and represents very shrewd connections who target this meeting. You can forget his Musselburgh run on awfully tacky looking ground. He didn't handle the track or the surface and it's best forgotten. His previous Carlisle run in a seller was interesting: he duelled with Waffle for the lead over six furlongs, and had that rival in all sorts of trouble. However, he was softened up and caught late on over the stiff six furlongs. This is a horse who could be well handicapped and seems to be in decent heart at the moment, something which can't be said for many of his rivals. The step back to the minimum will be in his favour here and if he gets any sort of tow into the contest he could improve.

Royal Bajan is a course and distance winner with early pace to burn. He has been out of form lately, but comes here nice and fresh and is well handicapped off OR67. Connor Beasley takes a handy 3lb off and there's a good chance of an easy lead here. Time and again the same horses run well at this particular track, and I find it interesting James Given sends him north after a recent break. The jockey booking would suggest they have put a bit of thought into this and he could outclass these. 20/1 is too big.

3.10 Ayr Coincidentally 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Skybet, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

I think Coincidentally is an improving horse who gets a mile well and might end up getting up to 1m4f in time. For now, she appears to be on the up like her sibling Strictly Silver was at this time in his own career - as a four year old last year. The difference is Conincidentally looks better handicapped, even after a recent Epsom romp which probably wasn't attaching too much thought to. It does, however, suggest she is on good terms with herself and it offers an excuse as to why she bombed out two days later - conditions were gruelling at Epsom the day she won and having shown speed at Hamilton she simply got tired.

There isn't much pace on here and I like the booking of Joe Fanning. He should be able to take a prominent sit, and I like being on a horse guaranteed to get the trip who might get an easy time on the front end. A few of these have been on the go all season and look a bit more exposed. If Coincidentally was indeed just tired at Hamilton, she can resume on an upward curve here and land this decent handicap on her way to better things. She retains a Cambridgeshire entry and she could be much better than a mark of OR80 in time.

Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: -42.00 / year: +306.05