6.40 Wolverhampton Hard Run 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 / 9/1 (Generally guaranteed)
At this time of the season in particular, horses having their first run in maidens can sometimes represent good value. Often, horses from powerful yards or representing powerful connections are underpriced because they have posted the best ratings, but usually those that haven't won are not stable stars. Ramshackle and Nathr both fit that category and neither is proven on this tapeta surface. They are taken on with Robert Cowell's 4yo newcomer Hard Run. The selection's breeding suggests artificial surfaces will suit him, and the stable had a first time out two year old winner today. They have taken the trouble to book Andrea Atzeni for the ride and looking at the selection's relatives, he ought to be capable of winning a moderate maiden at least. His sales price doubled as a yearling and, although he has obviously had problems which have kept him off the track, he has been entered in a winnable maiden for older horses. I think double figure prices are too big, and we'll back him each-way and win, which saves our stake in the event that he runs into a place.
Afternoon Bets:
Barnmore won very impressively last night, and there is more to come from him on the all weather.
2.30 Haydock Oddysey 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Skybet, Bet Victor, Sporting Bet, William Hill, Independents)
Oddysey has to carry top weight here but she has done so in the past, carrying as much as 10-0 on her back when winning, which suggests giving weight to inferior horses isn't a problem for her. This looks a handicap bigger on quantity than quality, and I'd be keen to oppose the three year olds, who have issues with economy of energy use (Starlight Serenade), class (Hostile Fire may not be as good as his form figures suggest) and trip (We'll Shake Hands). Hala Hala looks unconvincing in a finish. The selection looks best of the older horses and this is a weaker contest than the one she finished sixth in last time out. She is drawn wide, but seems to enjoy challenging on the outer, after being held up, which should be no problem for her here. A good pace is on the cards and I'd expect that to help this course and distance winner. Anything 14/1+ is too big and we'll play each-way and win
Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: +46.00 / year: +396.05
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